[STEP 1] BASE MARKET (THE REALITY)
Curve Inversion (10Y-2Y) 46 bps
Corporate Junk Spreads (CCC) 9.8%
Federal Real Rate 1.3%
MACRO ENVIRONMENT
LATE CYCLE (Divergence)
[STEP 2] FED OVERLAY (THE POLICY)
CPI Inflation vs Target (2%) 2.4%
Unemployment vs Nat. Rate (4.1%) 4.4%
Real GDP YoY vs Trend (2%) 2.0%
SYSTEM POSTURE
ACCOMMODATIVE (Labor Focus)
[STEP 3] LIQUIDITY (THE FUEL)
M2 Supply YoY % 4.3%
SPX Forward Gap (Lag Offset) -4.9%
Algorithmic Bias CUTTING CYCLE
GLOBAL FLOW
STEADY / NEUTRAL
AGGREGATE VERDICT LATE CYCLE METABOLIC TRANSITION
The economy is traversing a delicate late-cycle phase. Inflation is moderating but labor markets show slight cooling. Asset prices are supported by forward-looking rate cut expectations rather than pure liquidity expansion.
OUTLOOK: 1-3 MONTH FORWARD TRAJECTORY
GDP Growth Vector: SLOWING TREND (1.0% - 1.5%)
Fed Action Matrix: CAUTIOUS / SHALLOW CUTS
Equity Bias (SPX): NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT BULLISH
▎ US Federal Reserve Tracker
10Y Policy Trajectory · M2 & Inflation · 2026 Forward Guidance (FOMC & QT)
Fed Funds Rate (DFF) 10Y Target vs Effective
M2 Money Supply YoY Nominal vs Real Line
CPI Inflation YoY vs 2.0% Core Target
Real GDP Growth YoY vs 1.8% SEP Trend
▎ FOMC Calendar & Minutes
Official policy framework and release dates.
JAN 27-28 [PASSED]
📄 Read Minutes | No Change
MAR 17-18 [NEXT]
Summary of Econ. Projections (SEP) Included
MAY 5-6
Policy Assessment
JUN 16-17 [SEP]
Projections Released
▹ Mar 18, 14:30 EDT (Powell Presser)
▹ Jun 17, 14:30 EDT (Powell Presser)
QT Pacing Total: $6.66T
Asset Class Cap/Mo Status
US Treasuries $25B Tapered
Agency MBS $35B Run-off
SEP Median GDP Growth
2024
2.1%
2025
2.0%
2026
2.0%
Long-Run
1.8%
▎ Macro Liquidity
Yield Curve · Fed Funds · Real Rate · CPI · SPX · Credit Spreads
▎ US Treasury Yield Curve Matrix
Since 2000
1M2Y10Y20Y
10Y-2Y
Trend (vs 3M)
SPX+3M
26/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.64%
+0.59%
Par Down
TBD
Rates falling
26/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.64%
+0.74%
Bull Steep
TBD
Imminent cuts
25/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.72%
+0.71%
Par Down
TBD
Rates falling
25/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.88%
+0.55%
Bull Steep
+0.4%
Imminent cuts
25/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.22%
+0.56%
Par Down
+3.7%
Rates falling
25/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.33%
+0.64%
Bull Steep
+6.0%
Imminent cuts
25/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.33%
+0.43%
Bear Flat
+8.0%
Fed hiking
25/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.33%
+0.52%
Twist Steep
+7.8%
Curve steepening
25/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.33%
+0.52%
Twist Steep
+9.3%
Curve steepening
25/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.33%
+0.57%
Bull Steep
+13.8%
Imminent cuts
25/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.33%
+0.34%
Par Down
+10.6%
Rates falling
25/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.33%
+0.25%
Bull Steep
-0.7%
Imminent cuts
25/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.33%
+0.36%
Twist Steep
-7.8%
Curve steepening
24/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.48%
+0.33%
Bear Steep
-4.6%
Inflation risk
24/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.64%
+0.05%
Par Down
-1.3%
Rates falling
24/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.83%
+0.12%
Bull Steep
+5.9%
Imminent cuts
24/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.13%
+0.15%
Bull Steep
+2.1%
Imminent cuts
24/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
+0.00%
Bull Steep
+6.8%
Imminent cuts
24/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.20%
Bull Steep
+3.3%
Imminent cuts
24/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.35%
Neutral
+5.5%
Stable policy
24/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.38%
Par Up
+7.0%
Rates rising
24/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.35%
Par Up
+9.7%
Rates rising
24/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.39%
Par Up
+3.9%
Rates rising
24/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.39%
Par Down
+3.6%
Rates falling
24/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.28%
Inv Deep
+3.9%
Liquidity tight
23/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.35%
Bull Steep
+10.2%
Imminent cuts
23/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.36%
Twist Steep
+11.6%
Curve steepening
23/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.19%
Bear Steep
+15.5%
Inflation risk
23/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.44%
Bear Steep
+11.2%
Inflation risk
23/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.33%
-0.76%
Par Up
+1.3%
Rates rising
23/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.12%
-0.91%
Inv Deep
-8.6%
Liquidity tight
23/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.08%
-1.06%
Inv Deep
-3.6%
Liquidity tight
23/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.06%
-0.76%
Twist Steep
+7.8%
Curve steepening
23/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.83%
-0.60%
Twist Steep
+10.1%
Curve steepening
23/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.65%
-0.58%
Neutral
+8.3%
Stable policy
23/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.57%
-0.89%
Inv Deep
+5.3%
Liquidity tight
23/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.33%
-0.69%
Inv Deep
+2.3%
Liquidity tight
22/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.10%
-0.53%
Inv Deep
+7.0%
Liquidity tight
22/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.78%
-0.70%
Inv Deep
-2.7%
Liquidity tight
22/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.08%
-0.41%
Inv Deep
+5.3%
Liquidity tight
22/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.56%
-0.39%
Bear Flat
+7.1%
Fed hiking
22/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.33%
-0.30%
Bear Flat
+3.2%
Fed hiking
22/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.68%
-0.22%
Bear Flat
-6.3%
Fed hiking
22/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.21%
+0.06%
Par Up
-5.3%
Rates rising
22/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.77%
+0.32%
Par Up
-4.3%
Rates rising
22/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.33%
+0.19%
Bear Flat
-0.0%
Fed hiking
22/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.20%
+0.04%
Bear Flat
-16.4%
Fed hiking
22/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+0.39%
Bear Flat
-5.5%
Fed hiking
22/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+0.61%
Bear Flat
-8.5%
Fed hiking
21/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+0.79%
Bear Flat
-4.9%
Fed hiking
21/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+0.91%
Bear Flat
-4.2%
Fed hiking
21/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+1.07%
Par Up
-2.0%
Rates rising
21/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+1.24%
Neutral
+10.6%
Stable policy
21/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+1.10%
Twist Flat
+1.0%
Curve flattening
21/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.10%
+1.05%
Bull Flat
+4.8%
Flight to safety
21/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+1.20%
Twist Flat
+0.2%
Curve flattening
21/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.06%
+1.44%
Twist Steep
+7.6%
Curve steepening
21/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.07%
+1.49%
Bear Steep
+5.1%
Inflation risk
21/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.07%
+1.58%
Bear Steep
+8.2%
Inflation risk
21/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+1.30%
Bear Steep
+10.3%
Inflation risk
21/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+1.00%
Twist Steep
+12.6%
Curve steepening
20/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+0.80%
Twist Steep
+5.8%
Curve steepening
20/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+0.68%
Twist Steep
+5.2%
Curve steepening
20/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+0.74%
Bear Steep
+13.6%
Inflation risk
20/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+0.56%
Neutral
+11.7%
Stable policy
20/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.10%
+0.58%
Twist Steep
+3.5%
Curve steepening
20/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+0.44%
Neutral
-0.0%
Stable policy
20/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+0.50%
Neutral
+8.5%
Stable policy
20/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.05%
+0.49%
Bull Steep
+15.0%
Imminent cuts
20/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.05%
+0.44%
Bull Steep
+12.3%
Imminent cuts
20/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.65%
+0.47%
Bull Steep
+20.0%
Imminent cuts
20/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.58%
+0.27%
Bull Steep
+3.0%
Imminent cuts
20/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.55%
+0.18%
Par Down
-9.7%
Rates falling
19/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.55%
+0.34%
Twist Steep
-20.0%
Curve steepening
19/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.55%
+0.17%
Twist Steep
-5.9%
Curve steepening
19/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.83%
+0.17%
Par Down
+6.2%
Rates falling
19/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.04%
+0.05%
Bull Flat
+8.5%
Flight to safety
19/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.13%
+0.00%
Bull Flat
+7.3%
Flight to safety
19/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.40%
+0.13%
Bull Flat
+1.9%
Flight to safety
19/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.38%
+0.25%
Bull Steep
+1.2%
Imminent cuts
19/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.39%
+0.19%
Par Down
+6.3%
Rates falling
19/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.42%
+0.24%
Par Down
+1.2%
Rates falling
19/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.41%
+0.14%
Par Down
+3.8%
Rates falling
19/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.40%
+0.21%
Par Down
-1.2%
Rates falling
19/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.40%
+0.18%
Bull Flat
+8.9%
Flight to safety
18/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.27%
+0.21%
Neutral
+13.1%
Stable policy
18/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.20%
+0.21%
Par Up
+0.9%
Rates rising
18/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.19%
+0.28%
Par Up
-0.3%
Rates rising
18/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.95%
+0.24%
Bear Flat
-14.0%
Fed hiking
18/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.91%
+0.24%
Bear Flat
-4.9%
Fed hiking
18/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.91%
+0.29%
Bear Flat
-3.7%
Fed hiking
18/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.82%
+0.33%
Bear Flat
+7.2%
Fed hiking
18/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.70%
+0.43%
Bear Flat
+7.3%
Fed hiking
18/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.69%
+0.46%
Bear Flat
+6.4%
Fed hiking
18/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.51%
+0.47%
Par Up
+2.9%
Rates rising
18/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.42%
+0.62%
Par Up
-0.3%
Rates rising
18/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.41%
+0.58%
Bear Flat
-6.2%
Fed hiking
17/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.30%
+0.51%
Bear Flat
-1.2%
Fed hiking
17/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.16%
+0.64%
Bear Flat
+2.5%
Fed hiking
17/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.15%
+0.78%
Bear Flat
+9.7%
Fed hiking
17/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.15%
+0.86%
Neutral
+6.1%
Stable policy
17/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.16%
+0.79%
Twist Flat
+7.1%
Curve flattening
17/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.15%
+0.96%
Par Up
+4.2%
Rates rising
17/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.04%
+0.93%
Bear Flat
+4.0%
Fed hiking
17/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.91%
+0.93%
Bear Flat
+2.5%
Fed hiking
17/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.90%
+1.01%
Bear Flat
+3.6%
Fed hiking
17/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.79%
+1.13%
Bear Flat
+2.6%
Fed hiking
17/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.66%
+1.14%
Twist Flat
+2.0%
Curve flattening
17/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.65%
+1.26%
Bear Steep
+4.6%
Inflation risk
16/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.54%
+1.25%
Bear Steep
+5.5%
Inflation risk
16/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.41%
+1.26%
Bear Steep
+7.5%
Inflation risk
16/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.40%
+0.98%
Bear Steep
+7.2%
Inflation risk
16/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.40%
+0.83%
Bear Flat
+3.3%
Fed hiking
16/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.40%
+0.78%
Bull Flat
+1.3%
Flight to safety
16/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.39%
+0.79%
Bull Flat
-2.2%
Flight to safety
16/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.38%
+0.91%
Bull Flat
+3.3%
Flight to safety
16/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.37%
+0.97%
Neutral
+3.5%
Stable policy
16/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.37%
+1.06%
Twist Flat
+5.2%
Curve flattening
16/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.36%
+1.05%
Bull Flat
+1.9%
Flight to safety
16/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.38%
+0.96%
Bull Flat
+8.5%
Flight to safety
16/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.34%
+1.18%
Twist Flat
+6.4%
Curve flattening
15/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.24%
+1.21%
Bear Flat
+0.8%
Fed hiking
15/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.12%
+1.27%
Bear Flat
-7.1%
Fed hiking
15/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.12%
+1.41%
Twist Flat
-6.7%
Curve flattening
15/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.14%
+1.42%
Bull Flat
+6.5%
Flight to safety
15/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.14%
+1.47%
Par Up
+5.5%
Rates rising
15/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.13%
+1.53%
Par Up
-1.2%
Rates rising
15/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.13%
+1.71%
Bear Steep
-6.9%
Inflation risk
15/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.12%
+1.51%
Twist Steep
-6.4%
Curve steepening
15/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.12%
+1.47%
Bear Steep
+0.9%
Inflation risk
15/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.11%
+1.38%
Bull Flat
-0.2%
Flight to safety
15/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.11%
+1.37%
Twist Flat
+0.1%
Curve flattening
15/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.11%
+1.21%
Bull Flat
+4.5%
Flight to safety
14/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.12%
+1.50%
Bull Flat
+0.4%
Flight to safety
14/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+1.71%
Twist Flat
+1.8%
Curve flattening
14/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+1.85%
Bull Flat
-1.1%
Flight to safety
14/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+1.94%
Twist Flat
+4.4%
Curve flattening
14/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+1.87%
Twist Flat
+3.2%
Curve flattening
14/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+2.05%
Twist Flat
+4.5%
Curve flattening
14/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.10%
+2.06%
Twist Flat
+0.6%
Curve flattening
14/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+2.11%
Twist Flat
+4.1%
Curve flattening
14/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+2.25%
Twist Flat
+2.5%
Curve flattening
14/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+2.29%
Bull Flat
+4.7%
Flight to safety
14/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.07%
+2.33%
Twist Flat
+3.4%
Curve flattening
14/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.07%
+2.33%
Neutral
+5.7%
Stable policy
13/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+2.66%
Bear Steep
+1.3%
Inflation risk
13/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+2.47%
Twist Steep
+3.0%
Curve steepening
13/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+2.26%
Neutral
+1.5%
Stable policy
13/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+2.31%
Twist Steep
+9.9%
Curve steepening
13/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+2.39%
Bear Steep
+10.6%
Inflation risk
13/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+2.29%
Bear Steep
+4.2%
Inflation risk
13/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+2.16%
Bear Steep
+4.7%
Inflation risk
13/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.11%
+1.86%
Bear Steep
+0.1%
Inflation risk
13/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.15%
+1.48%
Bull Flat
+5.5%
Flight to safety
13/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.14%
+1.62%
Twist Steep
+2.4%
Curve steepening
13/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.15%
+1.64%
Bear Steep
+7.7%
Inflation risk
13/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.14%
+1.75%
Twist Steep
+6.6%
Curve steepening
12/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+1.53%
Twist Steep
+10.0%
Curve steepening
12/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+1.37%
Neutral
+7.0%
Stable policy
12/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+1.42%
Bear Steep
+6.1%
Inflation risk
12/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.14%
+1.42%
Neutral
-1.0%
Stable policy
12/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.13%
+1.35%
Neutral
+0.7%
Stable policy
12/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+1.28%
Bull Flat
+2.4%
Flight to safety
12/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+1.34%
Bull Flat
+5.8%
Flight to safety
12/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+1.32%
Bull Flat
+7.3%
Flight to safety
12/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.14%
+1.68%
Neutral
-1.3%
Stable policy
12/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.13%
+1.90%
Bear Steep
-3.3%
Inflation risk
12/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.10%
+1.68%
Twist Flat
-4.1%
Curve flattening
12/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+1.61%
Bull Flat
+6.5%
Flight to safety
11/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.07%
+1.64%
Neutral
+12.0%
Stable policy
11/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+1.83%
Twist Flat
+9.5%
Curve flattening
11/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.07%
+1.92%
Bull Flat
+4.7%
Flight to safety
11/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.08%
+1.67%
Bull Flat
+11.2%
Flight to safety
11/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.10%
+2.03%
Bull Flat
+2.3%
Flight to safety
11/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.07%
+2.46%
Bull Flat
-3.0%
Flight to safety
11/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+2.73%
Par Down
-14.3%
Rates falling
11/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.09%
+2.60%
Bull Flat
-9.4%
Flight to safety
11/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.10%
+2.71%
Twist Flat
-5.2%
Curve flattening
11/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.14%
+2.67%
Par Up
-0.4%
Rates rising
11/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+2.73%
Bear Steep
+1.4%
Inflation risk
11/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.17%
+2.84%
Bear Steep
+6.0%
Inflation risk
10/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.18%
+2.69%
Bear Steep
+5.4%
Inflation risk
10/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.19%
+2.36%
Bear Steep
+12.4%
Inflation risk
10/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.19%
+2.29%
Bull Flat
+8.7%
Flight to safety
10/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.19%
+2.11%
Bull Flat
+10.2%
Flight to safety
10/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.19%
+2.00%
Bull Flat
+12.5%
Flight to safety
10/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.18%
+2.39%
Bull Flat
+7.4%
Flight to safety
10/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.18%
+2.36%
Bull Flat
+10.7%
Flight to safety
10/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.20%
+2.55%
Bull Flat
-3.7%
Flight to safety
10/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.20%
+2.72%
Bear Flat
-7.2%
Fed hiking
10/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+2.82%
Twist Steep
-11.9%
Curve steepening
10/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.13%
+2.80%
Bear Steep
-1.4%
Inflation risk
10/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.11%
+2.81%
Twist Steep
+10.5%
Curve steepening
09/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.12%
+2.71%
Bear Steep
+4.9%
Inflation risk
09/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.12%
+2.54%
Bull Steep
+0.8%
Imminent cuts
09/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.12%
+2.51%
Bull Steep
+3.6%
Imminent cuts
09/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.15%
+2.36%
Par Down
+5.5%
Rates falling
09/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+2.43%
Twist Flat
+7.3%
Curve flattening
09/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+2.39%
Bear Steep
+4.9%
Inflation risk
09/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.21%
+2.42%
Bear Steep
+15.0%
Inflation risk
09/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.18%
+2.55%
Twist Steep
+11.0%
Curve steepening
09/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.15%
+2.25%
Twist Steep
+13.1%
Curve steepening
09/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.18%
+1.90%
Bear Steep
+15.2%
Inflation risk
09/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.22%
+2.02%
Twist Steep
+25.0%
Curve steepening
09/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.15%
+1.93%
Bull Flat
+5.7%
Flight to safety
08/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.16%
+1.49%
Bull Flat
-11.7%
Flight to safety
08/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.39%
+1.93%
Bull Steep
-18.0%
Imminent cuts
08/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.97%
+2.45%
Bull Steep
-14.7%
Imminent cuts
08/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.81%
+1.85%
Bull Steep
-22.6%
Imminent cuts
08/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.00%
+1.47%
Par Down
-30.1%
Rates falling
08/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.01%
+1.47%
Par Up
-23.6%
Rates rising
08/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.00%
+1.36%
Bear Flat
-8.9%
Fed hiking
08/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.98%
+1.40%
Bear Flat
-8.4%
Fed hiking
08/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.28%
+1.48%
Par Down
-8.5%
Rates falling
08/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.61%
+1.83%
Bull Steep
-3.2%
Imminent cuts
08/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.98%
+1.88%
Bull Steep
+5.2%
Imminent cuts
08/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.94%
+1.50%
Bull Steep
+0.5%
Imminent cuts
07/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.24%
+0.99%
Bull Steep
-9.9%
Imminent cuts
07/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.49%
+0.93%
Bull Steep
-10.2%
Imminent cuts
07/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.76%
+0.54%
Bull Steep
-11.0%
Imminent cuts
07/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.94%
+0.62%
Bull Steep
-3.8%
Imminent cuts
07/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.02%
+0.39%
Bull Steep
+0.5%
Imminent cuts
07/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.26%
+0.22%
Twist Steep
+6.5%
Curve steepening
07/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.25%
+0.16%
Twist Steep
+1.6%
Curve steepening
07/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.25%
-0.02%
Neutral
-3.7%
Stable policy
07/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.25%
+0.03%
Bull Steep
-1.8%
Imminent cuts
07/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.26%
+0.07%
Twist Steep
+5.8%
Curve steepening
07/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.26%
-0.09%
Neutral
+8.8%
Stable policy
07/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.25%
-0.11%
Par Up
+3.1%
Rates rising
06/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.24%
-0.11%
Par Up
+0.2%
Rates rising
06/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.25%
-0.16%
Inv Deep
+0.4%
Liquidity tight
06/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.25%
-0.10%
Bull Flat
+4.4%
Flight to safety
06/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.25%
-0.07%
Par Down
+6.2%
Rates falling
06/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.25%
-0.05%
Bull Flat
+7.4%
Flight to safety
06/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.24%
+0.02%
Bear Flat
+7.9%
Fed hiking
06/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.99%
-0.01%
Par Up
+5.2%
Rates rising
06/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.94%
+0.08%
Bear Steep
+2.7%
Inflation risk
06/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.79%
+0.20%
Bear Steep
-2.6%
Inflation risk
06/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.59%
+0.04%
Par Up
-1.9%
Rates rising
06/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.49%
-0.14%
Bear Flat
-0.8%
Fed hiking
06/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.29%
-0.01%
Bear Flat
+2.4%
Fed hiking
05/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.16%
-0.02%
Bear Flat
+3.7%
Fed hiking
05/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.00%
+0.07%
Bear Flat
+2.5%
Fed hiking
05/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.78%
+0.17%
Bear Flat
+6.1%
Fed hiking
05/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.62%
+0.16%
Bear Flat
+1.6%
Fed hiking
05/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.50%
+0.18%
Bear Flat
+2.4%
Fed hiking
05/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.26%
+0.26%
Bear Flat
-2.2%
Fed hiking
05/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.04%
+0.28%
Bull Flat
+3.1%
Flight to safety
05/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.00%
+0.40%
Twist Flat
+2.4%
Curve flattening
05/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.79%
+0.55%
Bear Flat
+6.7%
Fed hiking
05/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.63%
+0.70%
Bear Flat
+0.9%
Fed hiking
05/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.50%
+0.77%
Bear Flat
-1.0%
Fed hiking
05/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.28%
+0.85%
Bear Flat
-2.1%
Fed hiking
04/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.16%
+1.16%
Bear Flat
-2.6%
Fed hiking
04/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.93%
+1.34%
Bear Flat
+2.5%
Fed hiking
04/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.76%
+1.49%
Twist Flat
+4.5%
Curve flattening
04/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.61%
+1.51%
Twist Flat
+8.7%
Curve flattening
04/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.43%
+1.72%
Twist Flat
+6.3%
Curve flattening
04/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.26%
+1.82%
Bear Flat
+2.6%
Fed hiking
04/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.03%
+1.92%
Bear Flat
-2.3%
Fed hiking
04/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.00%
+2.12%
Bear Flat
-1.5%
Fed hiking
04/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.00%
+2.22%
Bear Flat
-0.5%
Fed hiking
04/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.00%
+2.26%
Bull Flat
+1.3%
Flight to safety
04/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.01%
+2.33%
Par Down
-2.1%
Rates falling
04/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.00%
+2.32%
Bull Flat
-2.1%
Flight to safety
03/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:0.98%
+2.43%
Par Up
+1.3%
Rates rising
03/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.00%
+2.28%
Twist Flat
+8.2%
Curve flattening
03/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.01%
+2.48%
Twist Flat
+7.7%
Curve flattening
03/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.01%
+2.46%
Bear Steep
+11.6%
Inflation risk
03/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.03%
+2.50%
Bear Steep
+5.0%
Inflation risk
03/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.01%
+2.69%
Bear Steep
+6.1%
Inflation risk
03/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.22%
+2.22%
Bull Flat
+2.2%
Flight to safety
03/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.26%
+2.04%
Bull Flat
+4.6%
Flight to safety
03/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.26%
+2.38%
Bull Steep
+8.0%
Imminent cuts
03/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.25%
+2.32%
Twist Steep
+14.9%
Curve steepening
03/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.26%
+2.18%
Par Down
+14.6%
Rates falling
03/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.24%
+2.28%
Par Down
+7.2%
Rates falling
02/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.24%
+2.22%
Bull Steep
-3.6%
Imminent cuts
02/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.34%
+2.14%
Bull Steep
-10.2%
Imminent cuts
02/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.75%
+2.25%
Par Down
-3.4%
Rates falling
02/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.75%
+1.91%
Par Down
+7.9%
Rates falling
02/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.74%
+2.00%
Bull Steep
+2.2%
Imminent cuts
02/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.73%
+2.28%
Bull Steep
-2.8%
Imminent cuts
02/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.75%
+1.96%
Bull Steep
-17.6%
Imminent cuts
02/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.75%
+1.86%
Par Up
-14.2%
Rates rising
02/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.75%
+1.87%
Neutral
-15.3%
Stable policy
02/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.73%
+1.70%
Bear Flat
-13.7%
Fed hiking
02/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.74%
+1.82%
Bear Flat
-3.6%
Fed hiking
02/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.73%
+1.91%
Par Up
-4.7%
Rates rising
01/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:1.82%
+2.00%
Bull Steep
-0.1%
Imminent cuts
01/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.09%
+1.94%
Bull Steep
-2.9%
Imminent cuts
01/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:2.49%
+1.86%
Bull Steep
+6.6%
Imminent cuts
01/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.07%
+1.74%
Bull Steep
+10.3%
Imminent cuts
01/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.65%
+1.21%
Par Down
+0.5%
Rates falling
01/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.77%
+1.28%
Bull Steep
-12.5%
Imminent cuts
01/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:3.97%
+1.17%
Twist Steep
-15.0%
Curve steepening
01/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.21%
+1.21%
Bull Steep
-9.7%
Imminent cuts
01/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:4.80%
+1.05%
Bull Steep
-3.1%
Imminent cuts
01/03
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.31%
+0.75%
Bull Steep
+5.5%
Imminent cuts
01/02
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.49%
+0.51%
Bull Steep
+1.3%
Imminent cuts
01/01
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:5.98%
+0.57%
Bull Steep
-8.5%
Imminent cuts
00/12
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:6.40%
+0.01%
Bull Steep
-12.1%
Imminent cuts
00/11
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:6.51%
-0.13%
Bull Steep
-5.7%
Imminent cuts
00/10
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:6.51%
-0.17%
Bull Steep
-4.4%
Imminent cuts
00/09
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:6.52%
-0.18%
Bull Steep
-8.1%
Imminent cuts
00/08
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:6.50%
-0.45%
Par Down
-13.4%
Rates falling
00/07
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:6.54%
-0.26%
Bull Steep
-0.1%
Imminent cuts
00/06
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:6.53%
-0.35%
Twist Steep
-1.2%
Curve steepening
00/05
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:6.27%
-0.40%
Inv Deep
+6.8%
Liquidity tight
00/04
T-3 T-2 T-1 T-3 FED FED:6.02%
-0.45%
Bull Flat
-1.5%
Flight to safety
00/03
T-2 T-1 FED:5.85%
-0.47%
—
-2.9%
00/02
T-1 FED:5.73%
-0.11%
—
+4.0%
00/01
FED:5.45%
+0.07%
—
+4.2%
[ Base Market Reality: 3M SPX Return Stats ]
Samples: 310 | Win Rate: 66.5% | Avg Ret: +1.8% | Median: +2.6%
Legend: T-3M | T-2M | T-1M | T-0 (Inverted/Normal)  |  Scale [-0.7%, 7.4%]
▎ S&P 500 Regime Map
VIX Volatility · Green = Bull Market, Red = Bear Market (−20% from Peak)
▎ SPX Predictive Power
6-Month Lag vs US GDP YoY (Quarterly) · Green GDP Bar = Accurate Signal · Red GDP Bar = False Signal
▎ 3D Yield Curve Topography
Z-Axis Amplified Model (BP Sensitivity) · Rolling 90-Day Structural Treasury Curve Shifts
▎ Deep Macro Liquidity Engine
30-Year M2 Money Stock vs S&P 500 Absolute Gravity · YoY Momentum & VIX Fear Overlay