A Quant Trader's Shocking Secret: Why All Trend Indicators Have Less Than 50% Accuracy?
A Quant Trader's Shocking Secret: Why All Trend Indicators Have Less Than 50% Accuracy?
Every seasoned trader has chased the mythical "Holy Grail" — a perfect technical indicator that predicts the future. But when a veteran quant trader accidentally revealed the truth, the entire room fell silent:
All trend-following indicators have accuracy below 50%
Blindly trading any trend indicator mechanically is a guaranteed long-term losing game.
Truth #1: Indicators Are Inherently Lagging
MACD, KDJ, Bollinger Bands, moving averages — all are mathematical reactions to past price. By the time a signal appears, the move has often already happened or is about to reverse.
Truth #2: Markets Are Probability, Not Prediction
“This is my main decision-making tool.” — He pulled out a dice.
One thousand analysts, one thousand wave counts
The same chart produces countless Elliott Wave interpretations. There is no single objective truth — only probability distributions.
Truth #3: Execution Is the Real Hell
Humans hate probability
Three losses in a row and we doubt the system. Small profit and we take it off early.
You only understand probability by living it
He deals cards to himself in spare time just to internalize probability.
Execution separates winners from losers
“After rolling the dice — do you actually execute?” Most people fail here.
Real edge comes from execution, not better indicators
At FX Killer, we hammer this into every minute of our 30-day military-style training: feel probability, accept probability, execute probability — until discipline becomes instinct.
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