AAL Deep Analytical Report

American Airlines Group Inc. | Category: Equity Mid Cap | Last Updated: 2026-03-24 | Data Range: 2005-09-01 → 2026-03-01 (247 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 4.07% 4.21% 3.61% 4.02% 3.78% 3.81% 10.44 11.26 10.05 11.70
Weekly 9.20% 11.46% 8.93% 9.47% 8.33% 8.38% 9.98 11.79 9.18 12.81
Monthly 18.30% 32.42% 19.80% 20.53% 17.34% 17.45% 9.12 12.90 7.67 15.34
Quarterly 26.92% 74.98% 30.67% 37.53% 30.03% 30.22% 8.03 14.64 5.95 19.77
Annual 60.07% 60.45% 5.95 19.77 3.26 36.06
Option Time Horizon 22.67% 22.82% 8.65 13.60 6.89 17.07
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-03-23T16:42 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-05-15 (52 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $10.85  |  Strike (K): $11.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $0.9350 (Bid $0.9100 / Ask $0.9600)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.73% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.00%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 60.07% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 60.03% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 60.45% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2020-02-04 $0.1000
2019-11-05 $0.1000
2019-08-06 $0.1000
2019-05-07 $0.1000
2019-02-05 $0.1000
2018-11-05 $0.1000
2018-08-06 $0.1000
2018-05-07 $0.1000
2018-02-05 $0.1000
2017-11-10 $0.1000
2017-08-10 $0.1000
2017-05-12 $0.1000
2017-02-09 $0.1000
2016-11-03 $0.1000
2016-08-03 $0.1000
2016-05-02 $0.1000
2016-02-08 $0.1000
2015-11-03 $0.1000
2015-08-06 $0.1000
2015-04-30 $0.1000
2015-02-05 $0.1000
2014-10-30 $0.1000
2014-07-31 $0.1000
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.15. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 16.98 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -12.14%430.83%0.83%
-12.14% to -9.09%500.97%1.81%
-9.09% to -6.04%1262.45%4.25%
-6.04% to -2.98%55210.71%14.97%
-2.98% to 0.07%186536.20%51.16%
0.07% to 3.12%179634.86%86.02%
3.12% to 6.18%4769.24%95.26%
6.18% to 9.23%1422.76%98.02%
9.23% to 12.29%470.91%98.93%
Greater than 12.29%551.07%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -4.00%4.14% 81.23%68.27%
±2σ -8.07%8.21% 95.11%95.45%
±3σ -12.15%12.29% 98.10%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.22. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 29.03 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.79%00.00%0.00%
-7.79% to -4.64%00.00%0.00%
-4.64% to -1.48%00.00%0.00%
-1.48% to 1.68%2825.47%5.47%
1.68% to 4.84%321762.43%67.90%
4.84% to 8.00%104720.32%88.22%
8.00% to 11.16%2905.63%93.85%
11.16% to 14.31%1553.01%96.86%
14.31% to 17.47%651.26%98.12%
Greater than 17.47%971.88%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.63%9.05% 90.53%68.27%
±2σ -3.58%13.26% 95.92%95.45%
±3σ -7.79%17.47% 98.12%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.67. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 12.46 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -10.59%280.54%0.54%
-10.59% to -7.88%490.95%1.49%
-7.88% to -5.18%1402.72%4.21%
-5.18% to -2.47%54410.56%14.77%
-2.47% to 0.23%192137.28%52.05%
0.23% to 2.94%174733.90%85.95%
2.94% to 5.64%4859.41%95.36%
5.64% to 8.35%1262.45%97.81%
8.35% to 11.05%541.05%98.86%
Greater than 11.05%591.14%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.37%3.84% 80.85%68.27%
±2σ -6.98%7.44% 95.15%95.45%
±3σ -10.59%11.05% 98.31%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.40. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 11.29 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.25%60.56%0.56%
-27.25% to -20.35%100.94%1.50%
-20.35% to -13.45%302.81%4.31%
-13.45% to -6.55%11811.05%15.36%
-6.55% to 0.34%40137.55%52.90%
0.34% to 7.24%35232.96%85.86%
7.24% to 14.14%1029.55%95.41%
14.14% to 21.04%272.53%97.94%
21.04% to 27.94%90.84%98.78%
Greater than 27.94%131.22%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.85%9.54% 80.81%68.27%
±2σ -18.05%18.74% 95.32%95.45%
±3σ -27.25%27.94% 98.22%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.79. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 19.90 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -21.54%00.00%0.00%
-21.54% to -12.94%00.00%0.00%
-12.94% to -4.34%00.00%0.00%
-4.34% to 4.25%565.24%5.24%
4.25% to 12.85%69164.64%69.88%
12.85% to 21.45%20619.27%89.15%
21.45% to 30.05%575.33%94.48%
30.05% to 38.65%161.50%95.98%
38.65% to 47.25%171.59%97.57%
Greater than 47.25%262.43%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.39%24.32% 91.02%68.27%
±2σ -10.08%35.78% 95.79%95.45%
±3σ -21.54%47.25% 97.57%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.15. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.82 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -26.07%70.65%0.65%
-26.07% to -19.37%70.65%1.31%
-19.37% to -12.67%272.53%3.84%
-12.67% to -5.97%12912.07%15.90%
-5.97% to 0.73%39837.23%53.13%
0.73% to 7.42%33831.62%84.75%
7.42% to 14.12%10710.01%94.76%
14.12% to 20.82%282.62%97.38%
20.82% to 27.52%111.03%98.41%
Greater than 27.52%171.59%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.20%9.66% 82.04%68.27%
±2σ -17.13%18.59% 94.95%95.45%
±3σ -26.07%27.52% 97.75%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.05. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 5.10 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -53.56%10.41%0.41%
-53.56% to -39.83%20.81%1.22%
-39.83% to -26.11%124.88%6.10%
-26.11% to -12.38%2811.38%17.48%
-12.38% to 1.34%9036.59%54.07%
1.34% to 15.07%7128.86%82.93%
15.07% to 28.79%2911.79%94.72%
28.79% to 42.52%83.25%97.97%
42.52% to 56.24%10.41%98.37%
Greater than 56.24%41.63%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -16.96%19.64% 79.27%68.27%
±2σ -35.26%37.94% 95.12%95.45%
±3σ -53.56%56.24% 97.97%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.59. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 28.27 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -65.00%00.00%0.00%
-65.00% to -40.68%00.00%0.00%
-40.68% to -16.36%00.00%0.00%
-16.36% to 7.96%10.40%0.40%
7.96% to 32.28%17570.85%71.26%
32.28% to 56.60%4819.43%90.69%
56.60% to 80.91%93.64%94.33%
80.91% to 105.23%41.62%95.95%
105.23% to 129.55%62.43%98.38%
Greater than 129.55%41.62%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -0.15%64.70% 92.71%68.27%
±2σ -32.57%97.13% 95.14%95.45%
±3σ -65.00%129.55% 98.38%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.81. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.54 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -57.20%00.00%0.00%
-57.20% to -42.36%10.40%0.40%
-42.36% to -27.51%52.02%2.43%
-27.51% to -12.66%3614.57%17.00%
-12.66% to 2.19%10140.89%57.89%
2.19% to 17.04%7329.55%87.45%
17.04% to 31.89%166.48%93.93%
31.89% to 46.73%72.83%96.76%
46.73% to 61.58%41.62%98.38%
Greater than 61.58%41.62%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -17.61%21.99% 83.00%68.27%
±2σ -37.41%41.79% 93.93%95.45%
±3σ -57.20%61.58% 98.38%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.65. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 1.69 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -78.19%00.00%0.00%
-78.19% to -58.00%00.00%0.00%
-58.00% to -37.82%67.32%7.32%
-37.82% to -17.63%910.98%18.29%
-17.63% to 2.56%2631.71%50.00%
2.56% to 22.75%2834.15%84.15%
22.75% to 42.94%67.32%91.46%
42.94% to 63.13%56.10%97.56%
63.13% to 83.31%11.22%98.78%
Greater than 83.31%11.22%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -24.36%29.48% 76.83%68.27%
±2σ -51.27%56.40% 96.34%95.45%
±3σ -78.19%83.31% 98.78%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.22. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 23.57 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -158.32%00.00%0.00%
-158.32% to -102.08%00.00%0.00%
-102.08% to -45.85%00.00%0.00%
-45.85% to 10.39%00.00%0.00%
10.39% to 66.63%6679.52%79.52%
66.63% to 122.86%89.64%89.16%
122.86% to 179.10%44.82%93.98%
179.10% to 235.34%22.41%96.39%
235.34% to 291.57%22.41%98.80%
Greater than 291.57%11.20%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.36%141.61% 89.16%68.27%
±2σ -83.34%216.59% 95.18%95.45%
±3σ -158.32%291.57% 98.80%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.47. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.93 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -87.08%00.00%0.00%
-87.08% to -64.08%00.00%0.00%
-64.08% to -41.08%22.41%2.41%
-41.08% to -18.08%1113.25%15.66%
-18.08% to 4.92%3643.37%59.04%
4.92% to 27.92%2226.51%85.54%
27.92% to 50.92%56.02%91.57%
50.92% to 73.92%44.82%96.39%
73.92% to 96.92%22.41%98.80%
Greater than 96.92%11.20%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -25.74%35.59% 78.31%68.27%
±2σ -56.41%66.26% 95.18%95.45%
±3σ -87.08%96.92% 98.80%99.73%