AAL Deep Analytical Report

American Airlines Group Inc. | Category: Equity Mid Cap | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 | Data Range: 2005-09-01 → 2026-02-01 (246 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 4.07% 4.22% 3.61% 4.03% 3.31% 3.41% 13.15 14.05 12.72 14.52
Weekly 9.20% 11.48% 8.94% 9.48% 7.29% 7.50% 12.63 14.62 11.75 15.72
Monthly 18.30% 32.50% 19.82% 20.65% 15.18% 15.62% 11.68 15.82 10.03 18.41
Quarterly 26.81% 75.17% 30.59% 36.41% 26.30% 27.05% 10.45 17.68 8.03 23.00
Annual 52.60% 54.10% 8.03 23.00 4.75 38.91
Option Time Horizon 20.23% 20.81% 11.10 16.64 9.07 20.37
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-02-22T14:24 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-04-17 (54 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $13.59  |  Strike (K): $14.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $0.9600 (Bid $0.9400 / Ask $0.9800)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.72% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.00%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 52.60% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 53.09% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 54.10% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2020-02-04 $0.1000
2019-11-05 $0.1000
2019-08-06 $0.1000
2019-05-07 $0.1000
2019-02-05 $0.1000
2018-11-05 $0.1000
2018-08-06 $0.1000
2018-05-07 $0.1000
2018-02-05 $0.1000
2017-11-10 $0.1000
2017-08-10 $0.1000
2017-05-12 $0.1000
2017-02-09 $0.1000
2016-11-03 $0.1000
2016-08-03 $0.1000
2016-05-02 $0.1000
2016-02-08 $0.1000
2015-11-03 $0.1000
2015-08-06 $0.1000
2015-04-30 $0.1000
2015-02-05 $0.1000
2014-10-30 $0.1000
2014-07-31 $0.1000
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.16. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 17.01 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -12.15%420.82%0.82%
-12.15% to -9.09%510.99%1.81%
-9.09% to -6.04%1252.44%4.25%
-6.04% to -2.98%54710.66%14.91%
-2.98% to 0.08%185936.23%51.14%
0.08% to 3.13%179034.89%86.03%
3.13% to 6.19%4739.22%95.24%
6.19% to 9.24%1422.77%98.01%
9.24% to 12.30%480.94%98.95%
Greater than 12.30%541.05%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -4.00%4.15% 81.25%68.27%
±2σ -8.07%8.22% 95.11%95.45%
±3σ -12.15%12.30% 98.11%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.22. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 28.95 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.81%00.00%0.00%
-7.81% to -4.65%00.00%0.00%
-4.65% to -1.49%00.00%0.00%
-1.49% to 1.68%2795.44%5.44%
1.68% to 4.84%320862.51%67.95%
4.84% to 8.00%104320.32%88.27%
8.00% to 11.17%2855.55%93.82%
11.17% to 14.33%1553.02%96.84%
14.33% to 17.49%651.27%98.11%
Greater than 17.49%971.89%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.62%9.06% 90.57%68.27%
±2σ -3.60%13.28% 95.93%95.45%
±3σ -7.81%17.49% 98.11%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.67. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 12.45 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -10.60%280.55%0.55%
-10.60% to -7.89%480.94%1.48%
-7.89% to -5.18%1402.73%4.21%
-5.18% to -2.48%54010.52%14.73%
-2.48% to 0.23%191737.35%52.08%
0.23% to 2.94%174033.90%85.99%
2.94% to 5.65%4809.35%95.34%
5.65% to 8.35%1262.46%97.80%
8.35% to 11.06%541.05%98.85%
Greater than 11.06%591.15%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.38%3.84% 80.85%68.27%
±2σ -6.99%7.45% 95.13%95.45%
±3σ -10.60%11.06% 98.30%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.40. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 11.29 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.24%60.56%0.56%
-27.24% to -20.34%100.94%1.50%
-20.34% to -13.44%302.82%4.32%
-13.44% to -6.54%11610.90%15.23%
-6.54% to 0.37%40237.78%53.01%
0.37% to 7.27%34932.80%85.81%
7.27% to 14.17%1029.59%95.39%
14.17% to 21.07%272.54%97.93%
21.07% to 27.98%90.85%98.78%
Greater than 27.98%131.22%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.84%9.57% 80.92%68.27%
±2σ -18.04%18.77% 95.30%95.45%
±3σ -27.24%27.97% 98.21%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.79. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 19.88 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -21.61%00.00%0.00%
-21.61% to -12.99%00.00%0.00%
-12.99% to -4.38%00.00%0.00%
-4.38% to 4.23%555.16%5.16%
4.23% to 12.84%69164.88%70.05%
12.84% to 21.45%20419.15%89.20%
21.45% to 30.06%565.26%94.46%
30.06% to 38.67%161.50%95.96%
38.67% to 47.28%181.69%97.65%
Greater than 47.28%252.35%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.36%24.32% 90.99%68.27%
±2σ -10.12%35.80% 95.77%95.45%
±3σ -21.61%47.28% 97.65%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.15. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.82 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -26.11%70.66%0.66%
-26.11% to -19.41%70.66%1.31%
-19.41% to -12.70%272.54%3.85%
-12.70% to -6.00%12912.11%15.96%
-6.00% to 0.71%39737.28%53.24%
0.71% to 7.41%33631.55%84.79%
7.41% to 14.12%1069.95%94.74%
14.12% to 20.82%282.63%97.37%
20.82% to 27.53%111.03%98.40%
Greater than 27.53%171.60%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.23%9.65% 81.97%68.27%
±2σ -17.17%18.59% 94.93%95.45%
±3σ -26.12%27.53% 97.75%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.05. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 5.11 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -53.45%10.41%0.41%
-53.45% to -39.73%20.82%1.22%
-39.73% to -26.01%124.90%6.12%
-26.01% to -12.29%2711.02%17.14%
-12.29% to 1.44%8936.33%53.47%
1.44% to 15.16%7229.39%82.86%
15.16% to 28.88%3012.24%95.10%
28.88% to 42.60%72.86%97.96%
42.60% to 56.33%10.41%98.37%
Greater than 56.33%41.63%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -16.86%19.73% 79.59%68.27%
±2σ -35.16%38.03% 95.10%95.45%
±3σ -53.46%56.33% 97.96%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.58. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 28.12 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -65.20%00.00%0.00%
-65.20% to -40.83%00.00%0.00%
-40.83% to -16.46%00.00%0.00%
-16.46% to 7.91%10.41%0.41%
7.91% to 32.29%17470.73%71.14%
32.29% to 56.66%4819.51%90.65%
56.66% to 81.03%93.66%94.31%
81.03% to 105.40%41.63%95.93%
105.40% to 129.77%62.44%98.37%
Greater than 129.77%41.63%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -0.21%64.78% 92.68%68.27%
±2σ -32.71%97.28% 95.12%95.45%
±3σ -65.20%129.77% 98.37%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.82. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.55 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -57.35%00.00%0.00%
-57.35% to -42.48%10.41%0.41%
-42.48% to -27.61%52.03%2.44%
-27.61% to -12.74%3614.63%17.07%
-12.74% to 2.13%10241.46%58.54%
2.13% to 16.99%7128.86%87.40%
16.99% to 31.86%166.50%93.90%
31.86% to 46.73%72.85%96.75%
46.73% to 61.60%41.63%98.37%
Greater than 61.60%41.63%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -17.70%21.95% 83.33%68.27%
±2σ -37.52%41.77% 93.90%95.45%
±3σ -57.35%61.60% 98.37%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.63. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 1.73 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -77.62%00.00%0.00%
-77.62% to -57.51%00.00%0.00%
-57.51% to -37.40%67.32%7.32%
-37.40% to -17.29%89.76%17.07%
-17.29% to 2.82%2834.15%51.22%
2.82% to 22.93%2834.15%85.37%
22.93% to 43.03%56.10%91.46%
43.03% to 63.14%56.10%97.56%
63.14% to 83.25%11.22%98.78%
Greater than 83.25%11.22%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -24.00%29.63% 76.83%68.27%
±2σ -50.81%56.44% 96.34%95.45%
±3σ -77.62%83.25% 98.78%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.20. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 23.41 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -159.29%00.00%0.00%
-159.29% to -102.91%00.00%0.00%
-102.91% to -46.54%00.00%0.00%
-46.54% to 9.84%00.00%0.00%
9.84% to 66.22%6679.52%79.52%
66.22% to 122.59%89.64%89.16%
122.59% to 178.97%44.82%93.98%
178.97% to 235.34%22.41%96.39%
235.34% to 291.72%22.41%98.80%
Greater than 291.72%11.20%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.95%141.38% 89.16%68.27%
±2σ -84.12%216.55% 95.18%95.45%
±3σ -159.29%291.72% 98.80%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.51. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 3.05 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -87.16%00.00%0.00%
-87.16% to -64.22%00.00%0.00%
-64.22% to -41.27%11.20%1.20%
-41.27% to -18.33%1214.46%15.66%
-18.33% to 4.61%3643.37%59.04%
4.61% to 27.56%2226.51%85.54%
27.56% to 50.50%56.02%91.57%
50.50% to 73.44%44.82%96.39%
73.44% to 96.39%11.20%97.59%
Greater than 96.39%22.41%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -25.98%35.20% 78.31%68.27%
±2σ -56.57%65.80% 95.18%95.45%
±3σ -87.16%96.39% 97.59%99.73%