AAL 深度分析报告

American Airlines Group Inc. | 分类: Equity Mid Cap | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 2005-09-01 → 2026-04-01 (248 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 4.07% 4.20% 3.60% 4.04% 3.24% 3.30% 11.71 12.50 11.34 12.91
周度 9.18% 11.44% 8.91% 9.55% 7.14% 7.26% 11.27 13.00 10.49 13.96
月度 18.28% 32.36% 19.77% 20.66% 14.86% 15.11% 10.43 14.04 8.99 16.29
季度 26.84% 74.97% 30.59% 37.59% 25.74% 26.17% 9.35 15.65 7.23 20.25
Annual 51.49% 52.34% 7.23 20.25 4.32 33.88
Option Time Horizon 19.62% 19.95% 9.94 14.72 8.17 17.91
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:48 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $12.10  |  Strike (K): $13.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $0.6200 (Bid $0.6000 / Ask $0.6400)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.00%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 51.49% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 51.60% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 52.34% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2020-02-04 $0.1000
2019-11-05 $0.1000
2019-08-06 $0.1000
2019-05-07 $0.1000
2019-02-05 $0.1000
2018-11-05 $0.1000
2018-08-06 $0.1000
2018-05-07 $0.1000
2018-02-05 $0.1000
2017-11-10 $0.1000
2017-08-10 $0.1000
2017-05-12 $0.1000
2017-02-09 $0.1000
2016-11-03 $0.1000
2016-08-03 $0.1000
2016-05-02 $0.1000
2016-02-08 $0.1000
2015-11-03 $0.1000
2015-08-06 $0.1000
2015-04-30 $0.1000
2015-02-05 $0.1000
2014-10-30 $0.1000
2014-07-31 $0.1000
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.15. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 16.97 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -12.13%430.83%0.83%
-12.13% to -9.08%500.97%1.80%
-9.08% to -6.03%1262.43%4.23%
-6.03% to -2.98%55610.74%14.98%
-2.98% to 0.07%187436.21%51.19%
0.07% to 3.12%180134.80%85.99%
3.12% to 6.17%4809.28%95.27%
6.17% to 9.23%1432.76%98.03%
9.23% to 12.28%470.91%98.94%
Greater than 12.28%551.06%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.99%4.14% 81.16%68.27%
±2σ -8.06%8.21% 95.11%95.45%
±3σ -12.13%12.28% 98.11%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 4.23. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 29.15 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.77%00.00%0.00%
-7.77% to -4.62%00.00%0.00%
-4.62% to -1.47%00.00%0.00%
-1.47% to 1.68%2835.47%5.47%
1.68% to 4.84%323362.46%67.93%
4.84% to 7.99%105120.31%88.23%
7.99% to 11.14%2905.60%93.84%
11.14% to 14.29%1573.03%96.87%
14.29% to 17.45%651.26%98.13%
Greater than 17.45%971.87%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.63%9.04% 90.55%68.27%
±2σ -3.57%13.24% 95.92%95.45%
±3σ -7.77%17.45% 98.13%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.67. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 12.49 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -10.57%280.54%0.54%
-10.57% to -7.87%500.97%1.51%
-7.87% to -5.17%1392.69%4.19%
-5.17% to -2.47%54810.59%14.78%
-2.47% to 0.23%192937.27%52.05%
0.23% to 2.93%175633.93%85.97%
2.93% to 5.63%4869.39%95.36%
5.63% to 8.33%1272.45%97.82%
8.33% to 11.04%541.04%98.86%
Greater than 11.04%591.14%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.37%3.83% 80.87%68.27%
±2σ -6.97%7.43% 95.17%95.45%
±3σ -10.57%11.04% 98.32%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.40. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 11.29 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.20%60.56%0.56%
-27.20% to -20.31%100.93%1.49%
-20.31% to -13.42%302.80%4.29%
-13.42% to -6.53%11911.09%15.38%
-6.53% to 0.35%40237.47%52.84%
0.35% to 7.24%35432.99%85.83%
7.24% to 14.13%1039.60%95.43%
14.13% to 21.02%272.52%97.95%
21.02% to 27.91%90.84%98.79%
Greater than 27.91%131.21%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.83%9.54% 80.89%68.27%
±2σ -18.01%18.72% 95.34%95.45%
±3σ -27.20%27.91% 98.23%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.80. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 19.99 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -21.48%00.00%0.00%
-21.48% to -12.90%00.00%0.00%
-12.90% to -4.32%00.00%0.00%
-4.32% to 4.26%565.21%5.21%
4.26% to 12.84%69364.53%69.74%
12.84% to 21.43%20919.46%89.20%
21.43% to 30.00%575.31%94.51%
30.00% to 38.59%161.49%96.00%
38.59% to 47.17%171.58%97.58%
Greater than 47.17%262.42%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.40%24.29% 91.06%68.27%
±2σ -10.04%35.73% 95.81%95.45%
±3σ -21.48%47.17% 97.58%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.15. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.86 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -26.02%70.65%0.65%
-26.02% to -19.34%70.65%1.30%
-19.34% to -12.65%272.51%3.82%
-12.65% to -5.97%12912.01%15.83%
-5.97% to 0.72%40237.43%53.26%
0.72% to 7.40%33831.47%84.73%
7.40% to 14.09%1079.96%94.69%
14.09% to 20.77%292.70%97.39%
20.77% to 27.46%111.02%98.42%
Greater than 27.46%171.58%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.20%9.63% 82.12%68.27%
±2σ -17.11%18.55% 94.97%95.45%
±3σ -26.02%27.46% 97.77%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.05. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.09 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -53.45%10.40%0.40%
-53.45% to -39.74%20.81%1.21%
-39.74% to -26.03%124.86%6.07%
-26.03% to -12.32%2811.34%17.41%
-12.32% to 1.39%9036.44%53.85%
1.39% to 15.10%7229.15%83.00%
15.10% to 28.80%2911.74%94.74%
28.80% to 42.51%83.24%97.98%
42.51% to 56.22%10.40%98.38%
Greater than 56.22%41.62%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -16.89%19.67% 79.35%68.27%
±2σ -35.17%37.94% 95.14%95.45%
±3σ -53.45%56.22% 97.98%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 4.60. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 28.40 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -64.80%00.00%0.00%
-64.80% to -40.53%00.00%0.00%
-40.53% to -16.26%00.00%0.00%
-16.26% to 8.01%10.40%0.40%
8.01% to 32.27%17670.97%71.37%
32.27% to 56.54%4819.35%90.73%
56.54% to 80.81%93.63%94.35%
80.81% to 105.08%41.61%95.97%
105.08% to 129.35%62.42%98.39%
Greater than 129.35%41.61%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -0.08%64.63% 92.74%68.27%
±2σ -32.44%96.99% 95.16%95.45%
±3σ -64.80%129.35% 98.39%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.81. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.57 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -57.17%00.00%0.00%
-57.17% to -42.34%10.40%0.40%
-42.34% to -27.51%52.02%2.42%
-27.51% to -12.68%3614.52%16.94%
-12.68% to 2.15%10241.13%58.06%
2.15% to 16.98%7329.44%87.50%
16.98% to 31.80%166.45%93.95%
31.80% to 46.63%72.82%96.77%
46.63% to 61.46%41.61%98.39%
Greater than 61.46%41.61%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -17.62%21.92% 83.47%68.27%
±2σ -37.40%41.69% 93.95%95.45%
±3σ -57.17%61.46% 98.39%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.65. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 1.72 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -77.85%00.00%0.00%
-77.85% to -57.72%00.00%0.00%
-57.72% to -37.58%67.32%7.32%
-37.58% to -17.45%89.76%17.07%
-17.45% to 2.68%2834.15%51.22%
2.68% to 22.81%2834.15%85.37%
22.81% to 42.95%56.10%91.46%
42.95% to 63.08%56.10%97.56%
63.08% to 83.21%11.22%98.78%
Greater than 83.21%11.22%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -24.16%29.52% 76.83%68.27%
±2σ -51.01%56.37% 96.34%95.45%
±3σ -77.85%83.21% 98.78%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 4.22. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 23.57 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -158.27%00.00%0.00%
-158.27% to -102.04%00.00%0.00%
-102.04% to -45.81%00.00%0.00%
-45.81% to 10.43%00.00%0.00%
10.43% to 66.66%6679.52%79.52%
66.66% to 122.89%89.64%89.16%
122.89% to 179.12%44.82%93.98%
179.12% to 235.35%22.41%96.39%
235.35% to 291.58%22.41%98.80%
Greater than 291.58%11.20%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.32%141.63% 89.16%68.27%
±2σ -83.29%216.61% 95.18%95.45%
±3σ -158.27%291.58% 98.80%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.49. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.02 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -87.02%00.00%0.00%
-87.02% to -64.08%00.00%0.00%
-64.08% to -41.13%22.41%2.41%
-41.13% to -18.18%1113.25%15.66%
-18.18% to 4.76%3643.37%59.04%
4.76% to 27.71%2226.51%85.54%
27.71% to 50.65%56.02%91.57%
50.65% to 73.60%44.82%96.39%
73.60% to 96.54%11.20%97.59%
Greater than 96.54%22.41%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -25.83%35.36% 78.31%68.27%
±2σ -56.43%65.95% 95.18%95.45%
±3σ -87.02%96.54% 97.59%99.73%