AAP Deep Analytical Report

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | Category: Equity Mid Cap | Ann. Div Yield: 1.79% ($1.00) | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 | Data Range: 2001-11-01 → 2026-02-01 (292 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 2.37% 1.86% 1.88% 3.62% 3.66% 3.64% 53.86 57.95 51.93 60.11
Weekly 5.09% 5.22% 5.30% 8.67% 8.05% 8.02% 51.55 60.55 47.56 65.63
Monthly 10.18% 11.04% 10.97% 19.92% 16.75% 16.70% 47.25 66.06 39.96 78.11
Quarterly 18.86% 20.22% 20.28% 36.87% 29.02% 28.92% 41.80 74.68 31.27 99.82
Annual 58.03% 57.84% 31.27 99.82 17.50 178.33
Option Time Horizon 18.97% 18.91% 46.22 67.54 38.23 81.65
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-02-22T14:22 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-04-02 (39 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $55.87  |  Strike (K): $60.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $2.6550 (Bid $2.2600 / Ask $3.0500)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.72% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 1.79%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 58.03% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 58.07% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 57.84% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-01-09 $0.2500
2025-10-10 $0.2500
2025-07-11 $0.2500
2025-04-11 $0.2500
2025-01-10 $0.2500
2024-10-11 $0.2500
2024-07-12 $0.2500
2024-04-11 $0.2500
2024-01-11 $0.2500
2023-10-12 $0.2500
2023-07-13 $0.2500
2023-04-13 $1.5000
2022-12-15 $1.5000
2022-09-15 $1.5000
2022-06-16 $1.5000
2022-03-17 $1.5000
2021-12-16 $1.0000
2021-09-16 $1.0000
2021-06-17 $1.0000
2021-03-18 $0.2500
2020-12-17 $0.2500
2020-09-17 $0.2500
2020-06-18 $0.2500
2020-03-19 $0.2500
2019-12-19 $0.0600
2019-09-19 $0.0600
2019-06-20 $0.0600
2019-03-21 $0.0600
2018-12-20 $0.0600
2018-09-20 $0.0600
2018-06-21 $0.0600
2018-03-22 $0.0600
2017-12-21 $0.0600
2017-09-21 $0.0600
2017-06-21 $0.0600
2017-03-22 $0.0600
2016-12-21 $0.0600
2016-09-21 $0.0600
2016-06-15 $0.0600
2016-03-16 $0.0600
2015-12-22 $0.0600
2015-09-16 $0.0600
2015-06-17 $0.0600
2015-03-18 $0.0600
2014-12-23 $0.0600
2014-09-17 $0.0600
2014-06-16 $0.0600
2014-03-19 $0.0600
2013-12-18 $0.0600
2013-09-18 $0.0600
2013-06-19 $0.0600
2013-03-20 $0.0600
2012-12-19 $0.0600
2012-09-19 $0.0600
2012-06-20 $0.0600
2012-03-21 $0.0600
2011-12-21 $0.0600
2011-09-21 $0.0600
2011-06-22 $0.0600
2011-03-23 $0.0600
2010-12-21 $0.0600
2010-09-22 $0.0600
2010-06-23 $0.0600
2010-03-24 $0.0600
2009-12-22 $0.0600
2009-09-23 $0.0600
2009-06-24 $0.0600
2009-03-25 $0.0600
2008-12-23 $0.0600
2008-09-17 $0.0600
2008-06-18 $0.0600
2008-03-18 $0.0600
2007-12-19 $0.0600
2007-09-19 $0.0600
2007-06-20 $0.0600
2007-03-21 $0.0600
2006-12-20 $0.0600
2006-09-20 $0.0600
2006-06-21 $0.0600
2006-03-22 $0.0600
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.65. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 70.07 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.07%360.59%0.59%
-7.07% to -5.29%420.69%1.28%
-5.29% to -3.51%1542.53%3.81%
-3.51% to -1.73%61810.14%13.95%
-1.73% to 0.05%225737.04%50.98%
0.05% to 1.83%213034.95%85.94%
1.83% to 3.62%61910.16%96.09%
3.62% to 5.40%1532.51%98.61%
5.40% to 7.18%430.71%99.31%
Greater than 7.18%420.69%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.32%2.43% 82.15%68.27%
±2σ -4.69%4.80% 96.21%95.45%
±3σ -7.07%7.18% 98.72%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.79. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 29.84 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -2.85%00.00%0.00%
-2.85% to -1.46%00.00%0.00%
-1.46% to -0.07%00.00%0.00%
-0.07% to 1.33%81513.37%13.37%
1.33% to 2.72%310450.93%64.30%
2.72% to 4.11%132421.72%86.02%
4.11% to 5.50%4757.79%93.81%
5.50% to 6.89%1782.92%96.74%
6.89% to 8.29%991.62%98.36%
Greater than 8.29%1001.64%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.86%4.57% 87.56%68.27%
±2σ -0.99%6.43% 96.10%95.45%
±3σ -2.85%8.29% 98.36%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.34. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.59 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -5.63%430.71%0.71%
-5.63% to -4.22%671.10%1.80%
-4.22% to -2.81%1812.97%4.77%
-2.81% to -1.39%75812.44%17.21%
-1.39% to 0.02%201633.08%50.29%
0.02% to 1.43%200732.93%83.22%
1.43% to 2.85%72711.93%95.14%
2.85% to 4.26%1853.04%98.18%
4.26% to 5.67%671.10%99.28%
Greater than 5.67%440.72%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.86%1.90% 77.36%68.27%
±2σ -3.75%3.79% 95.00%95.45%
±3σ -5.63%5.67% 98.57%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.19. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 9.39 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -15.03%141.11%1.11%
-15.03% to -11.21%90.71%1.82%
-11.21% to -7.39%322.53%4.35%
-7.39% to -3.56%13810.92%15.27%
-3.56% to 0.26%43934.73%50.00%
0.26% to 4.08%43334.26%84.26%
4.08% to 7.90%14111.16%95.41%
7.90% to 11.72%372.93%98.34%
11.72% to 15.54%120.95%99.29%
Greater than 15.54%90.71%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -4.84%5.35% 79.51%68.27%
±2σ -9.93%10.45% 94.54%95.45%
±3σ -15.03%15.54% 98.18%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.38. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 34.82 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -8.66%00.00%0.00%
-8.66% to -4.75%00.00%0.00%
-4.75% to -0.83%00.00%0.00%
-0.83% to 3.08%13210.43%10.43%
3.08% to 6.99%69354.78%65.22%
6.99% to 10.90%28322.37%87.59%
10.90% to 14.82%876.88%94.47%
14.82% to 18.73%342.69%97.15%
18.73% to 22.64%110.87%98.02%
Greater than 22.64%251.98%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.77%12.21% 89.80%68.27%
±2σ -3.44%17.42% 96.44%95.45%
±3σ -8.66%22.64% 98.02%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.71. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 30.87 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -15.79%20.16%0.16%
-15.79% to -11.82%100.79%0.95%
-11.82% to -7.85%342.69%3.64%
-7.85% to -3.88%14311.30%14.94%
-3.88% to 0.10%49138.81%53.75%
0.10% to 4.07%39931.54%85.30%
4.07% to 8.04%13210.43%95.73%
8.04% to 12.01%312.45%98.18%
12.01% to 15.98%70.55%98.74%
Greater than 15.98%161.26%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.20%5.39% 80.87%68.27%
±2σ -10.50%10.69% 96.05%95.45%
±3σ -15.79%15.98% 98.58%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.05. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.52 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -29.47%20.69%0.69%
-29.47% to -21.84%51.72%2.41%
-21.84% to -14.21%113.78%6.19%
-14.21% to -6.58%248.25%14.43%
-6.58% to 1.06%10536.08%50.52%
1.06% to 8.69%8930.58%81.10%
8.69% to 16.32%3813.06%94.16%
16.32% to 23.95%134.47%98.63%
23.95% to 31.59%31.03%99.66%
Greater than 31.59%10.34%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -9.12%11.23% 76.63%68.27%
±2σ -19.30%21.41% 94.16%95.45%
±3σ -29.47%31.58% 98.97%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.11. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 14.07 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -16.85%00.00%0.00%
-16.85% to -8.57%00.00%0.00%
-8.57% to -0.28%00.00%0.00%
-0.28% to 8.00%3612.33%12.33%
8.00% to 16.28%15553.08%65.41%
16.28% to 24.57%6221.23%86.64%
24.57% to 32.85%206.85%93.49%
32.85% to 41.13%124.11%97.60%
41.13% to 49.42%10.34%97.95%
Greater than 49.42%62.05%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 5.24%27.33% 89.38%68.27%
±2σ -5.81%38.37% 96.23%95.45%
±3σ -16.85%49.42% 97.95%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.64. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.65 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -32.73%00.00%0.00%
-32.73% to -24.51%20.68%0.68%
-24.51% to -16.28%103.42%4.11%
-16.28% to -8.06%4214.38%18.49%
-8.06% to 0.17%10535.96%54.45%
0.17% to 8.39%9933.90%88.36%
8.39% to 16.62%155.14%93.49%
16.62% to 24.84%93.08%96.58%
24.84% to 33.07%72.40%98.97%
Greater than 33.07%31.03%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -10.80%11.13% 78.08%68.27%
±2σ -21.77%22.10% 94.86%95.45%
±3σ -32.73%33.07% 98.97%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.06. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 0.31 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -53.32%00.00%0.00%
-53.32% to -39.17%22.06%2.06%
-39.17% to -25.02%33.09%5.15%
-25.02% to -10.87%1919.59%24.74%
-10.87% to 3.28%2222.68%47.42%
3.28% to 17.43%3030.93%78.35%
17.43% to 31.58%1515.46%93.81%
31.58% to 45.73%55.15%98.97%
45.73% to 59.87%00.00%98.97%
Greater than 59.87%11.03%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -15.59%22.14% 69.07%68.27%
±2σ -34.45%41.01% 95.88%95.45%
±3σ -53.32%59.87% 98.97%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.38. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.15 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.59%00.00%0.00%
-27.59% to -12.42%00.00%0.00%
-12.42% to 2.74%00.00%0.00%
2.74% to 17.91%1717.35%17.35%
17.91% to 33.07%4545.92%63.27%
33.07% to 48.23%2424.49%87.76%
48.23% to 63.40%66.12%93.88%
63.40% to 78.56%11.02%94.90%
78.56% to 93.73%22.04%96.94%
Greater than 93.73%33.06%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 12.85%53.29% 89.80%68.27%
±2σ -7.37%73.51% 93.88%95.45%
±3σ -27.59%93.73% 96.94%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.20. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.16 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -60.35%00.00%0.00%
-60.35% to -45.14%00.00%0.00%
-45.14% to -29.93%11.02%1.02%
-29.93% to -14.72%2121.43%22.45%
-14.72% to 0.48%3737.76%60.20%
0.48% to 15.69%1717.35%77.55%
15.69% to 30.90%1414.29%91.84%
30.90% to 46.11%66.12%97.96%
46.11% to 61.32%00.00%97.96%
Greater than 61.32%22.04%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -19.79%20.76% 73.47%68.27%
±2σ -40.07%41.04% 95.92%95.45%
±3σ -60.35%61.32% 97.96%99.73%