ADBE 资产分析 - DOR 信号与波动率

Quick 总览

Timeframe	C-C DoR σ (Historical)	H-L DoR σ (Historical)	O-C DoR σ (Historical)	5Y ATRP (Avg)	Binomial IV (Period)	Yahoo IV (Period)	1σ 低er (68.27%)	1σ Upper	2σ 低er (95.45%)	2σ Upper
日度	3.02%	2.59%	2.59%	2.88%	3.09%	3.17%	237.98	253.14	230.74	261.08
周度	6.67%	6.87%	6.73%	6.94%	6.80%	6.98%	229.31	262.71	214.24	281.19
月度	13.35%	16.94%	13.38%	15.57%	14.15%	14.52%	213.05	282.75	184.94	325.74
季度	27.67%	31.79%	23.14%	27.40%	24.51%	25.15%	192.08	313.62	150.33	400.73
Annual	—	—	—	—	49.02%	50.31%	150.33	400.73	92.07	654.28
Option Time Horizon	—	—	—	—	18.68%	19.17%	203.62	295.85	168.92	356.62

Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:44 UTC | Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days) | Spot 价格 (S): $245.44 | Strike (K): $250.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot) | Observed Mid-价格: $16.9000 (Bid $16.3500 / Ask $17.4500) | Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury) | Dividend Yield (q): 0.00% | Binomial IV (Annual): 49.02% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps) | BS IV: 49.24% (European Black-Scholes) | Yahoo IV (Annual): 50.31% → period-scaled as σ_period = σ_annual·√h | 价格 bands: Upper = S·e^+σ√h, 低er = S·e^−σ√h

Historical Dividend Payouts

Ex-Dividend Date	Amount
2005-03-24	$0.0065
2004-12-23	$0.0065
2004-09-24	$0.0065
2004-06-25	$0.0065
2004-03-26	$0.0065
2004-01-07	$0.0065
2003-09-19	$0.0065
2003-06-19	$0.0065
2003-03-20	$0.0065
2003-01-07	$0.0065
2002-09-20	$0.0065
2002-06-21	$0.0065
2002-03-21	$0.0065
2001-12-31	$0.0065
2001-09-21	$0.0065
2001-06-22	$0.0065
2001-03-22	$0.0065
2001-01-02	$0.0065
2000-09-28	$0.0063
2000-06-30	$0.0063
2000-03-23	$0.0063
1999-12-23	$0.0063
1999-09-24	$0.0063
1999-06-29	$0.0063
1999-03-29	$0.0063
1998-12-23	$0.0063
1998-09-21	$0.0063
1998-07-01	$0.0022
1998-04-01	$0.0022
1997-12-30	$0.0022
1997-09-29	$0.0063
1997-07-29	$0.0063
1997-07-02	$0.0063
1997-03-27	$0.0063
1997-01-14	$0.0063
1996-09-30	$0.0063
1996-07-03	$0.0063
1996-04-02	$0.0063
1996-01-17	$0.0063
1995-10-04	$0.0063
1995-07-05	$0.0063
1995-03-31	$0.0063
1995-01-12	$0.0063
1994-09-29	$0.0063
1994-06-30	$0.0063
1994-03-28	$0.0063
1994-01-21	$0.0063
1993-10-01	$0.0063
1993-06-23	$0.0063
1993-03-26	$0.0063
1993-01-19	$0.0050
1992-09-24	$0.0050
1992-06-23	$0.0050
1992-03-23	$0.0050
1992-01-09	$0.0050
1991-09-25	$0.0050
1991-06-26	$0.0050
1991-03-22	$0.0050
1991-01-09	$0.0003
1990-09-14	$0.0003
1990-07-02	$0.0037
1990-03-26	$0.0037
1990-01-08	$0.0031

收盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.13. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 9.96 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -8.95%	70	0.70%	0.70%
-8.95% to -6.68%	89	0.89%	1.59%
-6.68% to -4.41%	291	2.91%	4.50%
-4.41% to -2.15%	1130	11.30%	15.80%
-2.15% to 0.12%	3619	36.19%	51.99%
0.12% to 2.38%	3295	32.95%	84.94%
2.38% to 4.65%	968	9.68%	94.62%
4.65% to 6.91%	319	3.19%	97.81%
6.91% to 9.18%	120	1.20%	99.01%
Greater than 9.18%	99	0.99%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-2.90%	3.14%	79.14%	68.27%
±2σ	-5.92%	6.16%	95.04%	95.45%
±3σ	-8.95%	9.18%	98.31%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	0.117%
Standard Error	0.030%
中位数	0.000%
Mode	0.000%
Standard Deviation	3.021%
Sample Variance	9.125%
峰度	9.96
偏度	0.13
Range	62.401%
Minimum	-30.198%
Maximum	32.203%
Count	10000

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	2.144%	4985	49.85%	1.069%
负向	-2.003%	4753	47.53%	-0.952%
Zero	0.000%	262	2.62%	0.000%

Average True Range Percentage (ATRP)

Trading Days	Horizon	Average 日度 True Range %
5	1 Week	4.70%
20	1 Month	3.95%
60	1 Quarter	3.90%
250	1 Year	2.79%
750	3 Years	2.72%
1,250	5 Years	2.88%
2,500	10 Years	2.65%
5,000	20 Years	2.70%
12,500	50 Years	3.77%

高-to-低收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.08. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 20.79 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -4.17%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-4.17% to -2.22%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-2.22% to -0.28%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-0.28% to 1.67%	1729	17.29%	17.29%
1.67% to 3.61%	4635	46.35%	63.63%
3.61% to 5.55%	2070	20.70%	84.33%
5.55% to 7.50%	875	8.75%	93.08%
7.50% to 9.44%	352	3.52%	96.60%
9.44% to 11.39%	171	1.71%	98.31%
Greater than 11.39%	169	1.69%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	1.02%	6.20%	84.99%	68.27%
±2σ	-1.57%	8.79%	95.64%	95.45%
±3σ	-4.17%	11.39%	98.31%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	3.610%
Standard Error	0.026%
中位数	2.913%
Mode	3.571%
Standard Deviation	2.592%
Sample Variance	6.717%
峰度	20.79
偏度	3.08
Range	40.923%
Minimum	0.456%
Maximum	41.379%
Count	10001

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	3.610%	10001	100.00%	3.610%
负向	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

开盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.34. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.40 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -7.76%	78	0.78%	0.78%
-7.76% to -5.82%	111	1.11%	1.89%
-5.82% to -3.88%	351	3.51%	5.40%
-3.88% to -1.94%	1099	10.99%	16.39%
-1.94% to -0.00%	3293	32.93%	49.32%
-0.00% to 1.94%	3414	34.14%	83.45%
1.94% to 3.88%	1109	11.09%	94.54%
3.88% to 5.81%	339	3.39%	97.93%
5.81% to 7.75%	125	1.25%	99.18%
Greater than 7.75%	82	0.82%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-2.59%	2.58%	77.60%	68.27%
±2σ	-5.18%	5.17%	94.69%	95.45%
±3σ	-7.76%	7.75%	98.40%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	-0.004%
Standard Error	0.026%
中位数	0.000%
Mode	0.000%
Standard Deviation	2.586%
Sample Variance	6.690%
峰度	7.40
偏度	0.34
Range	49.267%
Minimum	-24.359%
Maximum	24.908%
Count	10001

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	1.888%	4682	46.81%	0.884%
负向	-1.799%	4935	49.34%	-0.888%
Zero	0.000%	384	3.84%	0.000%

收盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.30. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.66 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -19.46%	10	0.48%	0.48%
-19.46% to -14.45%	27	1.30%	1.79%
-14.45% to -9.45%	63	3.04%	4.83%
-9.45% to -4.44%	268	12.94%	17.77%
-4.44% to 0.57%	679	32.79%	50.56%
0.57% to 5.57%	690	33.32%	83.87%
5.57% to 10.58%	226	10.91%	94.79%
10.58% to 15.59%	64	3.09%	97.88%
15.59% to 20.59%	25	1.21%	99.08%
Greater than 20.59%	19	0.92%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-6.11%	7.24%	76.97%	68.27%
±2σ	-12.78%	13.92%	94.40%	95.45%
±3σ	-19.46%	20.59%	98.60%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	0.567%
Standard Error	0.147%
中位数	0.485%
Mode	0.000%
Standard Deviation	6.675%
Sample Variance	44.561%
峰度	5.66
偏度	0.30
Range	96.515%
Minimum	-45.000%
Maximum	51.515%
Count	2071

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	4.839%	1119	54.03%	2.615%
负向	-4.565%	929	44.86%	-2.048%
Zero	0.000%	23	1.11%	0.000%

Average True Range Percentage (ATRP)

Weeks	Horizon	Average 周度 True Range %
4	1 Month	8.37%
12	1 Quarter	8.76%
52	1 Year	6.57%
156	3 Years	6.52%
260	5 Years	6.94%
520	10 Years	6.23%
1,040	20 Years	6.31%
2,600	50 Years	8.86%

高-to-低收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.56. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 27.52 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -11.27%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-11.27% to -6.11%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-6.11% to -0.95%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-0.95% to 4.20%	354	17.08%	17.08%
4.20% to 9.36%	954	46.04%	63.13%
9.36% to 14.51%	442	21.33%	84.46%
14.51% to 19.67%	187	9.03%	93.48%
19.67% to 24.82%	68	3.28%	96.77%
24.82% to 29.98%	40	1.93%	98.70%
Greater than 29.98%	27	1.30%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	2.48%	16.23%	85.23%	68.27%
±2σ	-4.39%	23.10%	96.19%	95.45%
±3σ	-11.27%	29.98%	98.70%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	9.356%
Standard Error	0.151%
中位数	7.627%
Mode	10.000%
Standard Deviation	6.874%
Sample Variance	47.246%
峰度	27.52
偏度	3.56
Range	93.106%
Minimum	1.125%
Maximum	94.231%
Count	2072

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	9.356%	2072	100.00%	9.356%
负向	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

开盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.60. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 15.50 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -20.22%	8	0.39%	0.39%
-20.22% to -15.17%	20	0.97%	1.35%
-15.17% to -10.12%	67	3.23%	4.58%
-10.12% to -5.07%	232	11.20%	15.78%
-5.07% to -0.02%	785	37.89%	53.67%
-0.02% to 5.03%	627	30.26%	83.93%
5.03% to 10.08%	229	11.05%	94.98%
10.08% to 15.13%	55	2.65%	97.64%
15.13% to 20.18%	31	1.50%	99.13%
Greater than 20.18%	18	0.87%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-6.75%	6.71%	78.57%	68.27%
±2σ	-13.48%	13.45%	95.22%	95.45%
±3σ	-20.22%	20.18%	98.75%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	-0.019%
Standard Error	0.148%
中位数	-0.499%
Mode	0.000%
Standard Deviation	6.733%
Sample Variance	45.331%
峰度	15.50
偏度	1.60
Range	115.818%
Minimum	-34.000%
Maximum	81.818%
Count	2072

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	5.005%	935	45.12%	2.259%
负向	-4.243%	1112	53.67%	-2.277%
Zero	0.000%	25	1.21%	0.000%

收盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.63. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.79 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -37.67%	2	0.42%	0.42%
-37.67% to -27.66%	5	1.05%	1.47%
-27.66% to -17.65%	14	2.94%	4.41%
-17.65% to -7.64%	74	15.55%	19.96%
-7.64% to 2.37%	140	29.41%	49.37%
2.37% to 12.38%	160	33.61%	82.98%
12.38% to 22.39%	49	10.29%	93.28%
22.39% to 32.40%	20	4.20%	97.48%
32.40% to 42.41%	10	2.10%	99.58%
Greater than 42.41%	2	0.42%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-10.98%	15.72%	76.26%	68.27%
±2σ	-24.32%	29.06%	94.33%	95.45%
±3σ	-37.67%	42.41%	99.16%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	2.371%
Standard Error	0.612%
中位数	2.423%
Mode	-9.308%
Standard Deviation	13.347%
Sample Variance	178.141%
峰度	3.79
偏度	0.63
Range	130.330%
Minimum	-45.086%
Maximum	85.244%
Count	476

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	10.563%	278	58.40%	6.169%
负向	-9.131%	198	41.60%	-3.798%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

Average True Range Percentage (ATRP)

Months	Horizon	Average 月度 True Range %
3	1 Quarter	17.71%
12	1 Year	13.49%
36	3 Years	14.65%
60	5 Years	15.57%
120	10 Years	13.77%
240	20 Years	13.76%
600	50 Years	19.22%

高-to-低收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 6.01. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 70.01 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -29.04%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-29.04% to -16.33%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-16.33% to -3.62%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-3.62% to 9.08%	56	11.74%	11.74%
9.08% to 21.79%	241	50.52%	62.26%
21.79% to 34.49%	126	26.42%	88.68%
34.49% to 47.20%	28	5.87%	94.55%
47.20% to 59.90%	17	3.56%	98.11%
59.90% to 72.61%	3	0.63%	98.74%
Greater than 72.61%	6	1.26%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	4.85%	38.73%	90.36%	68.27%
±2σ	-12.09%	55.67%	97.06%	95.45%
±3σ	-29.04%	72.61%	98.74%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	21.787%
Standard Error	0.776%
中位数	17.715%
Mode	9.656%
Standard Deviation	16.941%
Sample Variance	286.995%
峰度	70.01
偏度	6.01
Range	246.199%
Minimum	3.801%
Maximum	250.000%
Count	477

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	21.787%	477	100.00%	21.787%
负向	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

开盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.27. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.49 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -40.69%	1	0.21%	0.21%
-40.69% to -30.65%	1	0.21%	0.42%
-30.65% to -20.62%	19	3.98%	4.40%
-20.62% to -10.59%	65	13.63%	18.03%
-10.59% to -0.56%	180	37.74%	55.77%
-0.56% to 9.47%	126	26.42%	82.18%
9.47% to 19.51%	59	12.37%	94.55%
19.51% to 29.54%	13	2.73%	97.27%
29.54% to 39.57%	7	1.47%	98.74%
Greater than 39.57%	6	1.26%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-13.93%	12.82%	76.94%	68.27%
±2σ	-27.31%	26.19%	95.60%	95.45%
±3σ	-40.69%	39.57%	98.53%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	-0.558%
Standard Error	0.612%
中位数	-2.335%
Mode	0.000%
Standard Deviation	13.376%
Sample Variance	178.926%
峰度	5.49
偏度	1.27
Range	127.574%
Minimum	-45.221%
Maximum	82.353%
Count	477

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	11.154%	195	40.88%	4.560%
负向	-8.750%	279	58.49%	-5.118%
Zero	0.000%	3	0.63%	0.000%

收盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.31. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 12.01 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -75.77%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-75.77% to -55.02%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-55.02% to -34.27%	5	3.16%	3.16%
-34.27% to -13.52%	25	15.82%	18.99%
-13.52% to 7.23%	57	36.08%	55.06%
7.23% to 27.98%	48	30.38%	85.44%
27.98% to 48.73%	17	10.76%	96.20%
48.73% to 69.48%	3	1.90%	98.10%
69.48% to 90.23%	0	0.00%	98.10%
Greater than 90.23%	3	1.90%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-20.44%	34.90%	79.11%	68.27%
±2σ	-48.11%	62.56%	96.84%	95.45%
±3σ	-75.77%	90.23%	98.10%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	7.228%
Standard Error	2.201%
中位数	4.751%
Mode	-42.551%
Standard Deviation	27.667%
Sample Variance	765.459%
峰度	12.01
偏度	2.31
Range	227.845%
Minimum	-42.551%
Maximum	185.294%
Count	158

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	19.654%	104	65.82%	12.937%
负向	-16.705%	54	34.18%	-5.709%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

Average True Range Percentage (ATRP)

Quarters	Horizon	Average 季度 True Range %
4	1 Year	19.66%
12	3 Years	26.16%
20	5 Years	27.40%
40	10 Years	24.39%
80	20 Years	24.00%
200	50 Years	34.81%

高-to-低收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.90. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 13.28 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -52.38%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-52.38% to -28.53%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-28.53% to -4.69%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-4.69% to 19.16%	28	17.61%	17.61%
19.16% to 43.00%	74	46.54%	64.15%
43.00% to 66.84%	34	21.38%	85.53%
66.84% to 90.69%	12	7.55%	93.08%
90.69% to 114.53%	7	4.40%	97.48%
114.53% to 138.38%	2	1.26%	98.74%
Greater than 138.38%	2	1.26%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	11.21%	74.79%	88.68%	68.27%
±2σ	-20.58%	106.58%	96.86%	95.45%
±3σ	-52.38%	138.38%	98.74%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	43.000%
Standard Error	2.521%
中位数	34.221%
Mode	100.000%
Standard Deviation	31.792%
Sample Variance	1010.728%
峰度	13.28
偏度	2.90
Range	238.700%
Minimum	11.300%
Maximum	250.000%
Count	159

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	43.000%	159	100.00%	43.000%
负向	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

开盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.76. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 1.21 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -71.09%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-71.09% to -53.73%	2	1.26%	1.26%
-53.73% to -36.38%	4	2.52%	3.77%
-36.38% to -19.03%	25	15.72%	19.50%
-19.03% to -1.67%	62	38.99%	58.49%
-1.67% to 15.68%	36	22.64%	81.13%
15.68% to 33.04%	13	8.18%	89.31%
33.04% to 50.39%	12	7.55%	96.86%
50.39% to 67.75%	3	1.89%	98.74%
Greater than 67.75%	2	1.26%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-24.81%	21.47%	72.96%	68.27%
±2σ	-47.95%	44.61%	93.08%	95.45%
±3σ	-71.09%	67.75%	98.74%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	-1.672%
Standard Error	1.835%
中位数	-4.964%
Mode	-64.433%
Standard Deviation	23.139%
Sample Variance	535.417%
峰度	1.21
偏度	0.76
Range	136.679%
Minimum	-64.433%
Maximum	72.246%
Count	159

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	22.595%	55	34.59%	7.816%
负向	-14.506%	104	65.41%	-9.488%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

ADBE 深度分析报告