ALLY 深度分析报告

Ally Financial Inc. | 分类: Equity Large Cap | 年化股息率: 2.67% ($1.20) | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 2014-01-01 → 2026-04-01 (148 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 2.38% 1.98% 1.92% 3.30% 1.83% 1.92% 43.38 44.99 42.59 45.82
周度 5.18% 5.51% 5.22% 7.79% 4.02% 4.23% 42.44 45.99 40.76 47.88
月度 9.58% 14.40% 10.77% 15.99% 8.38% 8.80% 40.63 48.04 37.37 52.24
季度 18.39% 31.85% 20.40% 28.22% 14.51% 15.23% 38.21 51.08 33.05 59.05
Annual 29.02% 30.47% 33.05 59.05 24.73 78.93
Option Time Horizon 11.06% 11.61% 39.56 49.35 35.42 55.11
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:49 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $44.18  |  Strike (K): $45.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $1.6250 (Bid $1.5500 / Ask $1.7000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 2.67%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 29.02% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 29.32% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 30.47% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-02-02 $0.3000
2025-10-31 $0.3000
2025-08-01 $0.3000
2025-05-01 $0.3000
2025-01-31 $0.3000
2024-11-01 $0.3000
2024-08-01 $0.3000
2024-04-30 $0.3000
2024-01-31 $0.3000
2023-10-31 $0.3000
2023-07-31 $0.3000
2023-04-28 $0.3000
2023-01-31 $0.3000
2022-10-31 $0.3000
2022-07-29 $0.3000
2022-04-29 $0.3000
2022-01-31 $0.3000
2021-10-29 $0.2500
2021-07-30 $0.2500
2021-04-29 $0.1900
2021-01-29 $0.1900
2020-10-29 $0.1900
2020-07-30 $0.1900
2020-04-30 $0.1900
2020-01-30 $0.1900
2019-10-31 $0.1700
2019-07-31 $0.1700
2019-04-30 $0.1700
2019-01-31 $0.1700
2018-10-31 $0.1500
2018-07-31 $0.1500
2018-04-30 $0.1300
2018-01-31 $0.1300
2017-10-31 $0.1200
2017-07-28 $0.1200
2017-04-27 $0.0800
2017-01-30 $0.0800
2016-10-28 $0.0800
2016-07-28 $0.0800
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of -0.17. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 13.03 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.08%230.76%0.76%
-7.08% to -5.30%210.69%1.45%
-5.30% to -3.51%1013.33%4.78%
-3.51% to -1.73%32710.79%15.57%
-1.73% to 0.06%102433.78%49.36%
0.06% to 1.84%108135.66%85.02%
1.84% to 3.62%32510.72%95.74%
3.62% to 5.41%732.41%98.15%
5.41% to 7.19%351.15%99.31%
Greater than 7.19%210.69%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.32%2.43% 80.17%68.27%
±2σ -4.70%4.81% 95.51%95.45%
±3σ -7.08%7.19% 98.55%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 7.00. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 124.80 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -3.14%00.00%0.00%
-3.14% to -1.66%00.00%0.00%
-1.66% to -0.17%00.00%0.00%
-0.17% to 1.32%33010.88%10.88%
1.32% to 2.81%160953.07%63.95%
2.81% to 4.29%70323.19%87.14%
4.29% to 5.78%2247.39%94.53%
5.78% to 7.27%862.84%97.36%
7.27% to 8.76%431.42%98.78%
Greater than 8.76%371.22%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.82%4.79% 89.22%68.27%
±2σ -1.16%6.77% 96.70%95.45%
±3σ -3.14%8.76% 98.78%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.96. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 11.28 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -5.70%180.59%0.59%
-5.70% to -4.27%250.82%1.42%
-4.27% to -2.83%862.84%4.25%
-2.83% to -1.39%40813.46%17.71%
-1.39% to 0.05%105234.70%52.41%
0.05% to 1.49%93730.90%83.31%
1.49% to 2.92%32710.78%94.10%
2.92% to 4.36%1203.96%98.05%
4.36% to 5.80%351.15%99.21%
Greater than 5.80%240.79%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.87%1.96% 76.62%68.27%
±2σ -3.79%3.88% 95.32%95.45%
±3σ -5.70%5.80% 98.61%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of -0.16. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.09 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -15.28%81.27%1.27%
-15.28% to -11.40%40.63%1.90%
-11.40% to -7.51%182.85%4.75%
-7.51% to -3.62%8112.84%17.59%
-3.62% to 0.27%19931.54%49.13%
0.27% to 4.15%21734.39%83.52%
4.15% to 8.04%6610.46%93.98%
8.04% to 11.93%284.44%98.42%
11.93% to 15.81%60.95%99.37%
Greater than 15.81%40.63%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -4.92%5.45% 80.35%68.27%
±2σ -10.10%10.63% 95.72%95.45%
±3σ -15.28%15.81% 98.10%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 4.30. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 33.14 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -9.26%00.00%0.00%
-9.26% to -5.12%00.00%0.00%
-5.12% to -0.99%00.00%0.00%
-0.99% to 3.14%7011.08%11.08%
3.14% to 7.28%34254.11%65.19%
7.28% to 11.41%14222.47%87.66%
11.41% to 15.55%467.28%94.94%
15.55% to 19.68%111.74%96.68%
19.68% to 23.82%81.27%97.94%
Greater than 23.82%132.06%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.77%12.79% 90.98%68.27%
±2σ -3.75%18.30% 96.20%95.45%
±3σ -9.26%23.82% 97.94%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.63. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 9.73 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -15.53%20.32%0.32%
-15.53% to -11.62%30.47%0.79%
-11.62% to -7.70%253.96%4.75%
-7.70% to -3.79%7712.18%16.93%
-3.79% to 0.12%22936.23%53.16%
0.12% to 4.04%20131.80%84.97%
4.04% to 7.95%6510.28%95.25%
7.95% to 11.87%152.37%97.63%
11.87% to 15.78%71.11%98.73%
Greater than 15.78%81.27%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.09%5.34% 80.54%68.27%
±2σ -10.31%10.56% 95.73%95.45%
±3σ -15.53%15.78% 98.42%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Left Skewed (负向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of -0.55. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.99 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.70%10.68%0.68%
-27.70% to -20.51%32.04%2.72%
-20.51% to -13.33%64.08%6.80%
-13.33% to -6.15%1711.56%18.37%
-6.15% to 1.03%4631.29%49.66%
1.03% to 8.22%4329.25%78.91%
8.22% to 15.40%2617.69%96.60%
15.40% to 22.58%42.72%99.32%
22.58% to 29.77%00.00%99.32%
Greater than 29.77%10.68%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.54%10.61% 74.83%68.27%
±2σ -18.12%20.19% 95.24%95.45%
±3σ -27.70%29.77% 98.64%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 6.46. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 58.64 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -26.90%00.00%0.00%
-26.90% to -16.10%00.00%0.00%
-16.10% to -5.30%00.00%0.00%
-5.30% to 5.50%85.41%5.41%
5.50% to 16.31%8557.43%62.84%
16.31% to 27.11%4329.05%91.89%
27.11% to 37.91%64.05%95.95%
37.91% to 48.71%32.03%97.97%
48.71% to 59.52%21.35%99.32%
Greater than 59.52%10.68%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.90%30.71% 91.89%68.27%
±2σ -12.50%45.11% 97.97%95.45%
±3σ -26.90%59.52% 99.32%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.58. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 15.37 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -32.15%00.00%0.00%
-32.15% to -24.07%10.68%0.68%
-24.07% to -15.99%32.03%2.70%
-15.99% to -7.91%2214.86%17.57%
-7.91% to 0.17%5637.84%55.41%
0.17% to 8.25%4832.43%87.84%
8.25% to 16.32%106.76%94.59%
16.32% to 24.40%42.70%97.30%
24.40% to 32.48%32.03%99.32%
Greater than 32.48%10.68%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -10.60%10.94% 83.11%68.27%
±2σ -21.37%21.71% 96.62%95.45%
±3σ -32.15%32.48% 99.32%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.14. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 0.96 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -51.84%00.00%0.00%
-51.84% to -38.04%12.04%2.04%
-38.04% to -24.25%00.00%2.04%
-24.25% to -10.45%1122.45%24.49%
-10.45% to 3.34%1326.53%51.02%
3.34% to 17.14%1632.65%83.67%
17.14% to 30.93%48.16%91.84%
30.93% to 44.73%36.12%97.96%
44.73% to 58.52%12.04%100.00%
Greater than 58.52%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -15.05%21.73% 69.39%68.27%
±2σ -33.44%40.13% 93.88%95.45%
±3σ -51.84%58.52% 100.00%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 4.84. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 28.56 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -62.94%00.00%0.00%
-62.94% to -39.06%00.00%0.00%
-39.06% to -15.17%00.00%0.00%
-15.17% to 8.72%12.00%2.00%
8.72% to 32.61%3570.00%72.00%
32.61% to 56.49%1020.00%92.00%
56.49% to 80.38%24.00%96.00%
80.38% to 104.27%12.00%98.00%
104.27% to 128.16%00.00%98.00%
Greater than 128.16%12.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.76%64.46% 94.00%68.27%
±2σ -31.09%96.31% 98.00%95.45%
±3σ -62.94%128.16% 98.00%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.07. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 8.73 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -60.50%00.00%0.00%
-60.50% to -45.20%00.00%0.00%
-45.20% to -29.91%12.00%2.00%
-29.91% to -14.61%510.00%12.00%
-14.61% to 0.69%2346.00%58.00%
0.69% to 15.98%1224.00%82.00%
15.98% to 31.28%816.00%98.00%
31.28% to 46.58%00.00%98.00%
46.58% to 61.88%00.00%98.00%
Greater than 61.88%12.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -19.71%21.08% 80.00%68.27%
±2σ -40.10%41.48% 98.00%95.45%
±3σ -60.50%61.88% 98.00%99.73%