ANF 深度分析报告

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. | 分类: Equity Mid Cap | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 1996-09-01 → 2026-04-01 (356 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 3.53% 2.59% 2.84% 4.87% 4.33% 4.41% 83.41 90.95 79.88 94.97
周度 8.00% 7.25% 8.16% 11.63% 9.52% 9.70% 79.19 95.80 72.00 105.37
月度 15.43% 16.25% 16.41% 25.93% 19.82% 20.20% 71.44 106.20 58.59 129.48
季度 29.88% 28.83% 31.07% 50.36% 34.33% 34.99% 61.79 122.78 43.83 173.08
Annual 68.67% 69.97% 43.83 173.08 22.06 343.92
Option Time Horizon 26.17% 26.66% 67.05 113.15 51.61 146.99
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:48 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $87.10  |  Strike (K): $90.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $8.1000 (Bid $7.7000 / Ask $8.5000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.00%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 68.67% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 69.18% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 69.97% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2020-03-05 $0.2000
2019-12-05 $0.2000
2019-09-05 $0.2000
2019-06-06 $0.2000
2019-03-07 $0.2000
2018-12-06 $0.2000
2018-09-06 $0.2000
2018-06-07 $0.2000
2018-03-08 $0.2000
2017-11-30 $0.2000
2017-08-30 $0.2000
2017-05-31 $0.2000
2017-03-01 $0.2000
2016-11-30 $0.2000
2016-08-31 $0.2000
2016-06-01 $0.2000
2016-03-02 $0.2000
2015-11-27 $0.2000
2015-08-28 $0.2000
2015-05-29 $0.2000
2015-02-27 $0.2000
2014-11-28 $0.2000
2014-08-28 $0.2000
2014-06-03 $0.2000
2014-03-04 $0.2000
2013-11-27 $0.2000
2013-08-29 $0.2000
2013-05-30 $0.2000
2013-02-28 $0.2000
2012-11-21 $0.1750
2012-08-23 $0.1750
2012-05-24 $0.1750
2012-02-23 $0.1750
2011-11-23 $0.1750
2011-08-25 $0.1750
2011-05-25 $0.1750
2011-02-23 $0.1750
2010-11-23 $0.1750
2010-08-25 $0.1750
2010-05-26 $0.1750
2010-02-24 $0.1750
2009-11-24 $0.1750
2009-08-26 $0.1750
2009-05-27 $0.1750
2009-02-25 $0.1750
2008-11-25 $0.1750
2008-08-27 $0.1750
2008-05-28 $0.1750
2008-02-27 $0.1750
2007-11-30 $0.1750
2007-08-30 $0.1750
2007-06-01 $0.1750
2007-03-02 $0.1750
2006-11-24 $0.1750
2006-08-25 $0.1750
2006-05-25 $0.1750
2006-02-24 $0.1750
2005-11-25 $0.1750
2005-08-26 $0.1750
2005-05-27 $0.1250
2005-02-25 $0.1250
2004-11-26 $0.1250
2004-08-27 $0.1250
2004-05-27 $0.1250
2004-03-05 $0.1250
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.39. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 10.68 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -10.49%560.75%0.75%
-10.49% to -7.84%550.74%1.49%
-7.84% to -5.20%2212.97%4.46%
-5.20% to -2.55%84511.36%15.82%
-2.55% to 0.10%258934.80%50.62%
0.10% to 2.74%249533.53%84.15%
2.74% to 5.39%83811.26%95.42%
5.39% to 8.04%2162.90%98.32%
8.04% to 10.68%620.83%99.15%
Greater than 10.68%630.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.43%3.62% 80.07%68.27%
±2σ -6.96%7.15% 95.59%95.45%
±3σ -10.49%10.68% 98.40%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.26. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 23.63 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -3.56%00.00%0.00%
-3.56% to -1.62%00.00%0.00%
-1.62% to 0.32%00.00%0.00%
0.32% to 2.26%124716.76%16.76%
2.26% to 4.20%338545.49%62.25%
4.20% to 6.14%169022.71%84.96%
6.14% to 8.08%6408.60%93.56%
8.08% to 10.02%2413.24%96.80%
10.02% to 11.96%1211.63%98.43%
Greater than 11.96%1171.57%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.61%6.79% 84.12%68.27%
±2σ -0.98%9.38% 96.02%95.45%
±3σ -3.56%11.96% 98.43%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.31. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 4.93 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -8.46%440.59%0.59%
-8.46% to -6.33%710.95%1.55%
-6.33% to -4.20%2883.87%5.42%
-4.20% to -2.07%96913.02%18.44%
-2.07% to 0.06%240132.27%50.71%
0.06% to 2.19%231431.10%81.80%
2.19% to 4.32%94512.70%94.50%
4.32% to 6.45%2663.57%98.08%
6.45% to 8.57%1001.34%99.42%
Greater than 8.57%430.58%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.78%2.90% 75.69%68.27%
±2σ -5.62%5.74% 95.14%95.45%
±3σ -8.46%8.57% 98.83%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.23. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 4.19 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -23.53%110.71%0.71%
-23.53% to -17.53%231.49%2.20%
-17.53% to -11.53%412.66%4.86%
-11.53% to -5.53%18311.86%16.72%
-5.53% to 0.47%53434.61%51.33%
0.47% to 6.48%48431.37%82.70%
6.48% to 12.48%17611.41%94.10%
12.48% to 18.48%624.02%98.12%
18.48% to 24.48%201.30%99.42%
Greater than 24.48%90.58%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.53%8.48% 77.25%68.27%
±2σ -15.53%16.48% 94.56%95.45%
±3σ -23.53%24.48% 98.70%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.41. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 9.43 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -10.41%00.00%0.00%
-10.41% to -4.97%00.00%0.00%
-4.97% to 0.46%00.00%0.00%
0.46% to 5.89%29218.91%18.91%
5.89% to 11.33%68144.11%63.02%
11.33% to 16.76%33421.63%84.65%
16.76% to 22.20%1197.71%92.36%
22.20% to 27.63%603.89%96.24%
27.63% to 33.06%271.75%97.99%
Greater than 33.06%312.01%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 4.08%18.57% 83.23%68.27%
±2σ -3.16%25.82% 94.95%95.45%
±3σ -10.41%33.06% 97.99%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.33. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.38 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -24.20%40.26%0.26%
-24.20% to -18.08%150.97%1.23%
-18.08% to -11.95%523.37%4.60%
-11.95% to -5.83%20213.08%17.68%
-5.83% to 0.29%54435.23%52.91%
0.29% to 6.41%48631.48%84.39%
6.41% to 12.53%15910.30%94.69%
12.53% to 18.65%442.85%97.54%
18.65% to 24.77%201.30%98.83%
Greater than 24.77%181.17%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.87%8.45% 78.63%68.27%
±2σ -16.04%16.61% 95.40%95.45%
±3σ -24.20%24.78% 98.58%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.22. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 0.61 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -44.45%00.00%0.00%
-44.45% to -32.88%41.13%1.13%
-32.88% to -21.30%164.51%5.63%
-21.30% to -9.72%5415.21%20.85%
-9.72% to 1.85%11231.55%52.39%
1.85% to 13.43%9627.04%79.44%
13.43% to 25.00%4813.52%92.96%
25.00% to 36.58%185.07%98.03%
36.58% to 48.15%51.41%99.44%
Greater than 48.15%20.56%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -13.58%17.29% 71.83%68.27%
±2σ -29.02%32.72% 94.08%95.45%
±3σ -44.45%48.15% 99.44%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.04. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.65 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -21.48%00.00%0.00%
-21.48% to -9.29%00.00%0.00%
-9.29% to 2.90%00.00%0.00%
2.90% to 15.09%6417.98%17.98%
15.09% to 27.28%16646.63%64.61%
27.28% to 39.47%6718.82%83.43%
39.47% to 51.66%308.43%91.85%
51.66% to 63.85%143.93%95.79%
63.85% to 76.04%82.25%98.03%
Greater than 76.04%71.97%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 11.03%43.54% 82.02%68.27%
±2σ -5.23%59.79% 95.22%95.45%
±3σ -21.48%76.04% 98.03%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.10. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.73 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -48.52%00.00%0.00%
-48.52% to -36.22%00.00%0.00%
-36.22% to -23.91%154.21%4.21%
-23.91% to -11.60%5515.45%19.66%
-11.60% to 0.70%13237.08%56.74%
0.70% to 13.01%9326.12%82.87%
13.01% to 25.32%3710.39%93.26%
25.32% to 37.62%143.93%97.19%
37.62% to 49.93%61.69%98.88%
Greater than 49.93%41.12%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -15.70%17.11% 74.44%68.27%
±2σ -32.11%33.52% 95.22%95.45%
±3σ -48.52%49.93% 98.88%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.40. Further, an Excess 峰度 of -0.24 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -83.33%00.00%0.00%
-83.33% to -60.92%00.00%0.00%
-60.92% to -38.50%54.24%4.24%
-38.50% to -16.09%2117.80%22.03%
-16.09% to 6.32%3933.05%55.08%
6.32% to 28.73%2722.88%77.97%
28.73% to 51.15%1512.71%90.68%
51.15% to 73.56%108.47%99.15%
73.56% to 95.97%10.85%100.00%
Greater than 95.97%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -23.56%36.21% 66.10%68.27%
±2σ -53.45%66.09% 97.46%95.45%
±3σ -83.33%95.97% 100.00%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.18. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 1.08 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -30.98%00.00%0.00%
-30.98% to -9.35%00.00%0.00%
-9.35% to 12.27%00.00%0.00%
12.27% to 33.89%3025.21%25.21%
33.89% to 55.51%3932.77%57.98%
55.51% to 77.13%2722.69%80.67%
77.13% to 98.75%119.24%89.92%
98.75% to 120.37%75.88%95.80%
120.37% to 141.99%43.36%99.16%
Greater than 141.99%10.84%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 26.68%84.34% 75.63%68.27%
±2σ -2.15%113.16% 94.96%95.45%
±3σ -30.97%141.99% 99.16%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.06. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 1.27 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -90.63%00.00%0.00%
-90.63% to -67.33%00.00%0.00%
-67.33% to -44.02%10.84%0.84%
-44.02% to -20.72%2722.69%23.53%
-20.72% to 2.59%4235.29%58.82%
2.59% to 25.89%2823.53%82.35%
25.89% to 49.20%97.56%89.92%
49.20% to 72.50%86.72%96.64%
72.50% to 95.81%32.52%99.16%
Greater than 95.81%10.84%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -28.48%33.66% 73.11%68.27%
±2σ -59.56%64.73% 95.80%95.45%
±3σ -90.63%95.81% 99.16%99.73%