BJRI Deep Analytical Report

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | Category: Equity Micro Cap | Last Updated: 2026-03-24 | Data Range: 1996-10-01 → 2026-03-01 (354 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 3.78% 4.51% 3.61% 4.23% 3.66% 3.72% 34.23 36.83 33.00 38.21
Weekly 7.25% 9.93% 8.05% 9.85% 8.06% 8.19% 32.76 38.49 30.22 41.72
Monthly 13.81% 33.44% 21.00% 20.20% 16.78% 17.04% 30.03 42.00 25.39 49.67
Quarterly 23.37% 76.97% 42.83% 32.54% 29.06% 29.52% 26.56 47.48 19.86 63.49
Annual 58.11% 59.03% 19.86 63.49 11.11 113.53
Option Time Horizon 21.93% 22.28% 28.52 44.22 22.90 55.06
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-03-23T16:37 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-05-15 (52 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $35.51  |  Strike (K): $37.50 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $2.4000 (Bid $0.6000 / Ask $4.2000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.73% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.00%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 58.11% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 58.81% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 59.03% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2020-03-09 $0.1300
2019-11-07 $0.1300
2019-08-09 $0.1200
2019-05-10 $0.1200
2019-03-11 $0.1200
2018-11-08 $0.1200
2018-08-10 $0.1100
2018-05-11 $0.1100
2018-03-12 $0.1100
2017-11-10 $0.1100
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.33. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 11.92 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.24%520.72%0.72%
-11.24% to -8.41%550.76%1.49%
-8.41% to -5.57%1952.71%4.20%
-5.57% to -2.74%7019.74%13.93%
-2.74% to 0.10%281039.04%52.97%
0.10% to 2.93%241533.55%86.52%
2.93% to 5.77%6248.67%95.19%
5.77% to 8.60%1852.57%97.76%
8.60% to 11.44%710.99%98.75%
Greater than 11.44%901.25%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.68%3.88% 81.69%68.27%
±2σ -7.46%7.66% 94.94%95.45%
±3σ -11.24%11.44% 98.03%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 6.69. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 84.54 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -8.92%00.00%0.00%
-8.92% to -5.54%00.00%0.00%
-5.54% to -2.16%00.00%0.00%
-2.16% to 1.23%1532.13%2.13%
1.23% to 4.61%480666.76%68.88%
4.61% to 7.99%147020.42%89.30%
7.99% to 11.38%4115.71%95.01%
11.38% to 14.76%1552.15%97.17%
14.76% to 18.14%831.15%98.32%
Greater than 18.14%1211.68%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.10%9.12% 92.07%68.27%
±2σ -4.41%13.63% 96.62%95.45%
±3σ -8.92%18.14% 98.32%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.11. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 30.47 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -10.73%520.72%0.72%
-10.73% to -8.03%620.86%1.58%
-8.03% to -5.32%1832.54%4.13%
-5.32% to -2.61%6889.56%13.68%
-2.61% to 0.10%283139.32%53.01%
0.10% to 2.81%239433.25%86.26%
2.81% to 5.52%6759.38%95.64%
5.52% to 8.23%1922.67%98.31%
8.23% to 10.94%510.71%99.01%
Greater than 10.94%710.99%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.51%3.72% 82.11%68.27%
±2σ -7.12%7.33% 95.46%95.45%
±3σ -10.74%10.94% 98.29%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.10. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.40 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -21.35%80.52%0.52%
-21.35% to -15.92%100.65%1.17%
-15.92% to -10.48%432.80%3.97%
-10.48% to -5.04%19212.51%16.48%
-5.04% to 0.39%56736.94%53.42%
0.39% to 5.83%46430.23%83.65%
5.83% to 11.26%16610.81%94.46%
11.26% to 16.70%463.00%97.46%
16.70% to 22.13%191.24%98.70%
Greater than 22.13%201.30%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -6.86%7.64% 78.44%68.27%
±2σ -14.10%14.88% 94.85%95.45%
±3σ -21.35%22.13% 98.18%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 5.79. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 57.43 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -18.69%00.00%0.00%
-18.69% to -11.24%00.00%0.00%
-11.24% to -3.80%00.00%0.00%
-3.80% to 3.65%654.23%4.23%
3.65% to 11.09%95061.85%66.08%
11.09% to 18.54%33121.55%87.63%
18.54% to 25.98%1137.36%94.99%
25.98% to 33.43%402.60%97.59%
33.43% to 40.88%161.04%98.63%
Greater than 40.88%211.37%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.16%21.02% 91.08%68.27%
±2σ -8.76%30.95% 97.20%95.45%
±3σ -18.69%40.88% 98.63%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.62. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 60.96 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -23.91%00.00%0.00%
-23.91% to -17.88%130.85%0.85%
-17.88% to -11.84%462.99%3.84%
-11.84% to -5.81%17211.20%15.04%
-5.81% to 0.23%57137.17%52.21%
0.23% to 6.26%52334.05%86.26%
6.26% to 12.30%15610.16%96.42%
12.30% to 18.34%382.47%98.89%
18.34% to 24.37%40.26%99.15%
Greater than 24.37%130.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.82%8.28% 81.84%68.27%
±2σ -15.87%16.32% 96.61%95.45%
±3σ -23.91%24.37% 99.15%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.04. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 4.94 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -39.84%20.57%0.57%
-39.84% to -29.49%00.00%0.57%
-29.49% to -19.13%123.40%3.97%
-19.13% to -8.77%5214.73%18.70%
-8.77% to 1.59%12033.99%52.69%
1.59% to 11.94%11131.44%84.14%
11.94% to 22.30%4011.33%95.47%
22.30% to 32.66%92.55%98.02%
32.66% to 43.02%41.13%99.15%
Greater than 43.02%30.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -12.22%15.40% 74.50%68.27%
±2σ -26.03%29.21% 96.03%95.45%
±3σ -39.84%43.02% 98.58%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 9.68. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 117.06 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -74.23%00.00%0.00%
-74.23% to -49.15%00.00%0.00%
-49.15% to -24.07%00.00%0.00%
-24.07% to 1.01%00.00%0.00%
1.01% to 26.09%24168.08%68.08%
26.09% to 51.17%9627.12%95.20%
51.17% to 76.25%102.82%98.02%
76.25% to 101.33%10.28%98.31%
101.33% to 126.41%30.85%99.15%
Greater than 126.41%30.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.35%59.53% 96.89%68.27%
±2σ -40.79%92.97% 98.31%95.45%
±3σ -74.23%126.41% 99.15%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 8.30. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 106.75 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -61.93%00.00%0.00%
-61.93% to -46.19%00.00%0.00%
-46.19% to -30.44%30.85%0.85%
-30.44% to -14.69%318.76%9.60%
-14.69% to 1.06%16145.48%55.08%
1.06% to 16.81%13237.29%92.37%
16.81% to 32.55%226.21%98.59%
32.55% to 48.30%20.56%99.15%
48.30% to 64.05%10.28%99.44%
Greater than 64.05%20.56%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -19.94%22.05% 91.81%68.27%
±2σ -40.94%43.05% 99.15%95.45%
±3σ -61.93%64.05% 99.44%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.45. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.65 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -65.59%10.85%0.85%
-65.59% to -48.06%00.00%0.85%
-48.06% to -30.54%32.54%3.39%
-30.54% to -13.01%2117.80%21.19%
-13.01% to 4.51%4336.44%57.63%
4.51% to 22.03%2521.19%78.81%
22.03% to 39.56%1714.41%93.22%
39.56% to 57.08%65.08%98.31%
57.08% to 74.61%10.85%99.15%
Greater than 74.61%10.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -18.86%27.88% 71.19%68.27%
±2σ -42.22%51.24% 96.61%95.45%
±3σ -65.59%74.61% 98.31%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 6.60. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 46.57 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -178.64%00.00%0.00%
-178.64% to -120.92%00.00%0.00%
-120.92% to -63.19%00.00%0.00%
-63.19% to -5.46%00.00%0.00%
-5.46% to 52.27%8974.79%74.79%
52.27% to 109.99%2621.85%96.64%
109.99% to 167.72%10.84%97.48%
167.72% to 225.44%10.84%98.32%
225.44% to 283.17%00.00%98.32%
Greater than 283.17%21.68%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -24.70%129.23% 97.48%68.27%
±2σ -101.67%206.20% 98.32%95.45%
±3σ -178.64%283.17% 98.32%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 7.56. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 71.79 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -125.66%00.00%0.00%
-125.66% to -93.54%00.00%0.00%
-93.54% to -61.42%00.00%0.00%
-61.42% to -29.30%54.20%4.20%
-29.30% to 2.83%6857.14%61.34%
2.83% to 34.95%4033.61%94.96%
34.95% to 67.07%43.36%98.32%
67.07% to 99.19%10.84%99.16%
99.19% to 131.31%00.00%99.16%
Greater than 131.31%10.84%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -40.00%45.66% 95.80%68.27%
±2σ -82.83%88.48% 99.16%95.45%
±3σ -125.66%131.31% 99.16%99.73%