BJRI Deep Analytical Report

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | Category: Equity Micro Cap | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 | Data Range: 1996-10-01 → 2026-02-01 (353 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 3.78% 4.52% 3.62% 4.25% 3.20% 3.30% 39.90 42.54 38.65 43.92
Weekly 7.25% 9.94% 8.05% 9.86% 7.04% 7.26% 38.40 44.21 35.79 47.43
Monthly 13.81% 33.49% 21.02% 20.18% 14.67% 15.10% 35.58 47.71 30.73 55.24
Quarterly 23.30% 77.04% 42.81% 31.75% 25.40% 26.16% 31.96 53.11 24.79 68.47
Annual 50.80% 52.32% 24.79 68.47 14.92 113.80
Option Time Horizon 19.54% 20.12% 33.89 50.09 27.87 60.90
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-02-22T14:21 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-04-17 (54 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $41.20  |  Strike (K): $42.50 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $2.7750 (Bid $1.3500 / Ask $4.2000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.72% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.00%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 50.80% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 51.32% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 52.32% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2020-03-09 $0.1300
2019-11-07 $0.1300
2019-08-09 $0.1200
2019-05-10 $0.1200
2019-03-11 $0.1200
2018-11-08 $0.1200
2018-08-10 $0.1100
2018-05-11 $0.1100
2018-03-12 $0.1100
2017-11-10 $0.1100
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.33. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 11.91 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.25%520.72%0.72%
-11.25% to -8.41%550.77%1.49%
-8.41% to -5.58%1942.70%4.19%
-5.58% to -2.74%6989.73%13.92%
-2.74% to 0.10%280439.07%52.99%
0.10% to 2.94%240433.50%86.48%
2.94% to 5.77%6258.71%95.19%
5.77% to 8.61%1842.56%97.76%
8.61% to 11.45%710.99%98.75%
Greater than 11.45%901.25%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.68%3.88% 81.68%68.27%
±2σ -7.47%7.67% 94.94%95.45%
±3σ -11.25%11.45% 98.02%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 6.68. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 84.34 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -8.94%00.00%0.00%
-8.94% to -5.55%00.00%0.00%
-5.55% to -2.17%00.00%0.00%
-2.17% to 1.22%1532.13%2.13%
1.22% to 4.61%479666.82%68.95%
4.61% to 8.00%146020.34%89.29%
8.00% to 11.39%4105.71%95.00%
11.39% to 14.77%1552.16%97.16%
14.77% to 18.16%831.16%98.31%
Greater than 18.16%1211.69%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.09%9.13% 92.06%68.27%
±2σ -4.42%13.64% 96.77%95.45%
±3σ -8.94%18.16% 98.31%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.11. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 30.44 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -10.75%500.70%0.70%
-10.75% to -8.04%630.88%1.57%
-8.04% to -5.32%1832.55%4.12%
-5.32% to -2.61%6869.56%13.68%
-2.61% to 0.10%282639.37%53.05%
0.10% to 2.82%238333.20%86.25%
2.82% to 5.53%6739.38%95.63%
5.53% to 8.24%1922.67%98.30%
8.24% to 10.95%520.72%99.02%
Greater than 10.95%700.98%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.51%3.72% 82.07%68.27%
±2σ -7.13%7.34% 95.46%95.45%
±3σ -10.75%10.95% 98.33%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.10. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.41 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -21.35%80.52%0.52%
-21.35% to -15.91%100.65%1.18%
-15.91% to -10.47%432.81%3.98%
-10.47% to -5.04%19012.41%16.39%
-5.04% to 0.40%56737.03%53.43%
0.40% to 5.84%46230.18%83.61%
5.84% to 11.27%16710.91%94.51%
11.27% to 16.71%452.94%97.45%
16.71% to 22.15%191.24%98.69%
Greater than 22.15%201.31%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -6.85%7.65% 78.45%68.27%
±2σ -14.10%14.90% 94.91%95.45%
±3σ -21.35%22.15% 98.17%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 5.79. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 57.31 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -18.72%00.00%0.00%
-18.72% to -11.27%00.00%0.00%
-11.27% to -3.82%00.00%0.00%
-3.82% to 3.64%654.24%4.24%
3.64% to 11.09%94961.95%66.19%
11.09% to 18.55%32821.41%87.60%
18.55% to 26.00%1147.44%95.04%
26.00% to 33.46%392.55%97.58%
33.46% to 40.91%161.04%98.63%
Greater than 40.91%211.37%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.15%21.03% 91.06%68.27%
±2σ -8.79%30.97% 97.19%95.45%
±3σ -18.72%40.91% 98.63%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.63. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 61.04 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -23.93%00.00%0.00%
-23.93% to -17.89%130.85%0.85%
-17.89% to -11.85%463.00%3.85%
-11.85% to -5.82%17011.10%14.95%
-5.82% to 0.22%57137.27%52.22%
0.22% to 6.26%52234.07%86.29%
6.26% to 12.30%15510.12%96.41%
12.30% to 18.33%382.48%98.89%
18.33% to 24.37%40.26%99.15%
Greater than 24.37%130.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.83%8.27% 81.85%68.27%
±2σ -15.88%16.32% 96.61%95.45%
±3σ -23.93%24.37% 99.15%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.03. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 4.96 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -39.81%20.57%0.57%
-39.81% to -29.45%00.00%0.57%
-29.45% to -19.09%123.41%3.98%
-19.09% to -8.73%5114.49%18.47%
-8.73% to 1.63%12034.09%52.56%
1.63% to 11.99%11231.82%84.38%
11.99% to 22.35%4011.36%95.74%
22.35% to 32.71%82.27%98.01%
32.71% to 43.07%41.14%99.15%
Greater than 43.07%30.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -12.18%15.44% 74.43%68.27%
±2σ -25.99%29.25% 96.02%95.45%
±3σ -39.81%43.07% 98.58%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 9.66. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 116.72 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -74.36%00.00%0.00%
-74.36% to -49.24%00.00%0.00%
-49.24% to -24.13%00.00%0.00%
-24.13% to 0.99%00.00%0.00%
0.99% to 26.11%24067.99%67.99%
26.11% to 51.22%9627.20%95.18%
51.22% to 76.34%102.83%98.02%
76.34% to 101.45%10.28%98.30%
101.45% to 126.57%30.85%99.15%
Greater than 126.57%30.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.38%59.59% 96.88%68.27%
±2σ -40.87%93.08% 98.30%95.45%
±3σ -74.36%126.57% 99.15%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 8.30. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 106.67 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -62.04%00.00%0.00%
-62.04% to -46.27%00.00%0.00%
-46.27% to -30.51%30.85%0.85%
-30.51% to -14.74%318.78%9.63%
-14.74% to 1.02%16045.33%54.96%
1.02% to 16.78%13237.39%92.35%
16.78% to 32.55%226.23%98.58%
32.55% to 48.31%20.57%99.15%
48.31% to 64.08%10.28%99.43%
Greater than 64.08%20.57%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -20.00%22.04% 91.78%68.27%
±2σ -41.02%43.06% 99.15%95.45%
±3σ -62.04%64.08% 99.43%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.44. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.69 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -65.29%10.85%0.85%
-65.29% to -47.81%00.00%0.85%
-47.81% to -30.33%32.54%3.39%
-30.33% to -12.85%2117.80%21.19%
-12.85% to 4.62%4336.44%57.63%
4.62% to 22.10%2521.19%78.81%
22.10% to 39.58%1714.41%93.22%
39.58% to 57.05%65.08%98.31%
57.05% to 74.53%10.85%99.15%
Greater than 74.53%10.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -18.68%27.93% 71.19%68.27%
±2σ -41.98%51.23% 96.61%95.45%
±3σ -65.29%74.53% 98.31%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 6.59. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 46.46 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -179.04%00.00%0.00%
-179.04% to -121.26%00.00%0.00%
-121.26% to -63.48%00.00%0.00%
-63.48% to -5.70%00.00%0.00%
-5.70% to 52.08%8974.79%74.79%
52.08% to 109.85%2621.85%96.64%
109.85% to 167.63%10.84%97.48%
167.63% to 225.41%10.84%98.32%
225.41% to 283.19%00.00%98.32%
Greater than 283.19%21.68%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -24.96%129.11% 97.48%68.27%
±2σ -102.00%206.15% 98.32%95.45%
±3σ -179.04%283.19% 98.32%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 7.58. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 72.06 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -125.73%00.00%0.00%
-125.73% to -93.62%00.00%0.00%
-93.62% to -61.52%00.00%0.00%
-61.52% to -29.41%54.20%4.20%
-29.41% to 2.69%6756.30%60.50%
2.69% to 34.80%4134.45%94.96%
34.80% to 66.90%43.36%98.32%
66.90% to 99.00%10.84%99.16%
99.00% to 131.11%00.00%99.16%
Greater than 131.11%10.84%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -40.11%45.50% 95.80%68.27%
±2σ -82.92%88.30% 99.16%95.45%
±3σ -125.73%131.11% 99.16%99.73%