CAKE 深度分析报告

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 分类: Equity Mid Cap | 年化股息率: 1.75% ($1.08) | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 1992-09-01 → 2026-04-01 (404 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 2.68% 2.41% 2.42% 3.67% 2.57% 2.77% 60.15 63.33 58.63 64.98
周度 5.77% 5.92% 5.78% 8.38% 5.66% 6.09% 58.32 65.31 55.11 69.12
月度 10.83% 13.53% 11.79% 16.95% 11.78% 12.67% 54.86 69.44 48.76 78.12
季度 18.84% 26.62% 18.05% 28.70% 20.41% 21.95% 50.32 75.70 41.03 92.84
Annual 40.82% 43.90% 41.03 92.84 27.28 139.64
Option Time Horizon 15.56% 16.73% 52.83 72.11 45.22 84.24
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:47 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $61.72  |  Strike (K): $62.50 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $3.5500 (Bid $3.3000 / Ask $3.8000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 1.75%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 40.82% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 40.91% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 43.90% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-03-04 $0.3000
2025-11-10 $0.2700
2025-08-12 $0.2700
2025-05-14 $0.2700
2025-03-05 $0.2700
2024-11-13 $0.2700
2024-08-14 $0.2700
2024-05-21 $0.2700
2024-03-05 $0.2700
2023-11-14 $0.2700
2023-08-15 $0.2700
2023-05-23 $0.2700
2023-03-07 $0.2700
2022-11-14 $0.2700
2022-08-09 $0.2700
2022-05-10 $0.2700
2020-03-06 $0.3600
2019-11-08 $0.3600
2019-08-13 $0.3600
2019-05-15 $0.3300
2019-03-01 $0.3300
2018-11-13 $0.3300
2018-08-14 $0.3300
2018-05-09 $0.2900
2018-02-27 $0.2900
2017-11-14 $0.2900
2017-08-14 $0.2900
2017-05-15 $0.2400
2017-03-06 $0.2400
2016-11-07 $0.2400
2016-08-08 $0.2400
2016-05-09 $0.2000
2016-02-26 $0.2000
2015-11-05 $0.2000
2015-08-03 $0.2000
2015-05-04 $0.1650
2015-02-23 $0.1650
2014-11-03 $0.1650
2014-08-04 $0.1650
2014-05-05 $0.1400
2014-02-24 $0.1400
2013-11-04 $0.1400
2013-08-05 $0.1400
2013-05-06 $0.1200
2013-03-04 $0.1200
2012-11-05 $0.1200
2012-08-06 $0.1200
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.15. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.62 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.96%520.61%0.61%
-7.96% to -5.96%851.01%1.62%
-5.96% to -3.94%2773.28%4.90%
-3.94% to -1.94%94511.17%16.07%
-1.94% to 0.07%309836.63%52.70%
0.07% to 2.08%266931.56%84.26%
2.08% to 4.09%86710.25%94.51%
4.09% to 6.10%2793.30%97.81%
6.10% to 8.11%991.17%98.98%
Greater than 8.11%861.02%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.61%2.75% 78.28%68.27%
±2σ -5.28%5.43% 94.88%95.45%
±3σ -7.96%8.11% 98.37%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.49. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 27.92 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -3.75%00.00%0.00%
-3.75% to -1.94%00.00%0.00%
-1.94% to -0.13%00.00%0.00%
-0.13% to 1.68%140616.62%16.62%
1.68% to 3.48%395746.78%63.41%
3.48% to 5.29%182121.53%84.94%
5.29% to 7.10%7198.50%93.44%
7.10% to 8.91%2953.49%96.93%
8.91% to 10.72%1171.38%98.31%
Greater than 10.72%1431.69%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.07%5.89% 85.79%68.27%
±2σ -1.34%8.30% 95.89%95.45%
±3σ -3.75%10.72% 98.31%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.20. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.42 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.24%630.74%0.74%
-7.24% to -5.43%1151.36%2.10%
-5.43% to -3.62%2993.54%5.64%
-3.62% to -1.81%90210.66%16.30%
-1.81% to 0.01%298935.34%51.64%
0.01% to 1.82%265831.43%83.07%
1.82% to 3.63%97511.53%94.60%
3.63% to 5.44%3043.59%98.19%
5.44% to 7.25%941.11%99.30%
Greater than 7.25%590.70%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.41%2.42% 77.18%68.27%
±2σ -4.83%4.83% 94.68%95.45%
±3σ -7.24%7.25% 98.56%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.59. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 6.77 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -16.98%90.51%0.51%
-16.98% to -12.65%160.91%1.43%
-12.65% to -8.32%502.85%4.28%
-8.32% to -3.99%23813.58%17.86%
-3.99% to 0.34%60434.46%52.31%
0.34% to 4.67%54831.26%83.57%
4.67% to 9.00%20411.64%95.21%
9.00% to 13.33%452.57%97.78%
13.33% to 17.66%211.20%98.97%
Greater than 17.66%181.03%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.43%6.12% 76.73%68.27%
±2σ -11.21%11.89% 95.04%95.45%
±3σ -16.98%17.66% 98.46%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.43. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 26.49 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -9.21%00.00%0.00%
-9.21% to -4.77%00.00%0.00%
-4.77% to -0.33%00.00%0.00%
-0.33% to 4.12%30317.27%17.27%
4.12% to 8.56%78844.93%62.20%
8.56% to 13.00%39522.52%84.72%
13.00% to 17.44%1568.89%93.61%
17.44% to 21.88%613.48%97.09%
21.88% to 26.32%201.14%98.23%
Greater than 26.32%311.77%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 2.63%14.48% 85.01%68.27%
±2σ -3.29%20.40% 96.29%95.45%
±3σ -9.21%26.32% 98.23%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.50. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 21.38 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -17.29%110.63%0.63%
-17.29% to -12.95%140.80%1.43%
-12.95% to -8.62%432.45%3.88%
-8.62% to -4.29%22813.00%16.88%
-4.29% to 0.05%58933.58%50.46%
0.05% to 4.38%58933.58%84.04%
4.38% to 8.71%19811.29%95.32%
8.71% to 13.04%492.79%98.12%
13.04% to 17.38%191.08%99.20%
Greater than 17.38%140.80%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.73%5.82% 77.37%68.27%
±2σ -11.51%11.60% 95.10%95.45%
±3σ -17.29%17.38% 98.57%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.30. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.40 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -31.12%20.50%0.50%
-31.12% to -23.00%10.25%0.74%
-23.00% to -14.87%174.22%4.96%
-14.87% to -6.74%6115.14%20.10%
-6.74% to 1.38%12932.01%52.11%
1.38% to 9.51%12029.78%81.89%
9.51% to 17.63%4511.17%93.05%
17.63% to 25.76%204.96%98.01%
25.76% to 33.88%30.74%98.76%
Greater than 33.88%51.24%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -9.45%12.21% 76.18%68.27%
±2σ -20.29%23.05% 95.04%95.45%
±3σ -31.12%33.88% 98.26%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 4.11. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 29.11 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -21.41%00.00%0.00%
-21.41% to -11.27%00.00%0.00%
-11.27% to -1.12%00.00%0.00%
-1.12% to 9.03%5413.37%13.37%
9.03% to 19.18%20049.50%62.87%
19.18% to 29.33%9924.50%87.38%
29.33% to 39.48%317.67%95.05%
39.48% to 49.63%92.23%97.28%
49.63% to 59.78%30.74%98.02%
Greater than 59.78%81.98%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 5.65%32.71% 89.60%68.27%
±2σ -7.88%46.25% 97.28%95.45%
±3σ -21.41%59.78% 98.02%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.44. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 20.49 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -35.43%00.00%0.00%
-35.43% to -26.59%51.24%1.24%
-26.59% to -17.75%102.48%3.71%
-17.75% to -8.90%5012.38%16.09%
-8.90% to -0.06%14836.63%52.72%
-0.06% to 8.79%12831.68%84.41%
8.79% to 17.63%4210.40%94.80%
17.63% to 26.47%153.71%98.51%
26.47% to 35.32%40.99%99.50%
Greater than 35.32%20.50%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -11.85%11.73% 80.45%68.27%
±2σ -23.64%23.53% 95.79%95.45%
±3σ -35.43%35.32% 99.50%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.02. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 4.52 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -52.47%00.00%0.00%
-52.47% to -38.34%10.75%0.75%
-38.34% to -24.21%64.48%5.22%
-24.21% to -10.09%2014.93%20.15%
-10.09% to 4.04%4432.84%52.99%
4.04% to 18.17%3727.61%80.60%
18.17% to 32.30%1914.18%94.78%
32.30% to 46.42%53.73%98.51%
46.42% to 60.55%10.75%99.25%
Greater than 60.55%10.75%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -14.79%22.88% 74.63%68.27%
±2σ -33.63%41.72% 94.03%95.45%
±3σ -52.47%60.55% 99.25%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.42. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 15.57 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -44.41%00.00%0.00%
-44.41% to -24.45%00.00%0.00%
-24.45% to -4.48%00.00%0.00%
-4.48% to 15.48%1712.59%12.59%
15.48% to 35.45%6850.37%62.96%
35.45% to 55.42%3626.67%89.63%
55.42% to 75.38%85.93%95.56%
75.38% to 95.35%10.74%96.30%
95.35% to 115.31%10.74%97.04%
Greater than 115.31%42.96%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 8.83%62.07% 94.81%68.27%
±2σ -17.79%88.69% 96.30%95.45%
±3σ -44.41%115.31% 97.04%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.05. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.97 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -54.72%00.00%0.00%
-54.72% to -41.19%10.74%0.74%
-41.19% to -27.65%42.96%3.70%
-27.65% to -14.12%2216.30%20.00%
-14.12% to -0.58%4432.59%52.59%
-0.58% to 12.95%4231.11%83.70%
12.95% to 26.48%128.89%92.59%
26.48% to 40.02%75.19%97.78%
40.02% to 53.55%00.00%97.78%
Greater than 53.55%32.22%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -18.63%17.46% 77.04%68.27%
±2σ -36.68%35.51% 94.81%95.45%
±3σ -54.72%53.55% 97.78%99.73%