CCL Deep Analytical Report

Carnival Corporation & plc | Category: Equity Mega Cap | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 | Data Range: 1987-07-01 → 2026-02-01 (464 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 2.73% 2.42% 2.25% 4.65% 4.31% 3.24% 30.64 33.40 29.35 34.87
Weekly 5.89% 6.62% 5.92% 11.20% 9.50% 7.13% 29.09 35.18 26.46 38.68
Monthly 11.63% 19.82% 13.40% 24.67% 19.77% 14.85% 26.25 38.98 21.54 47.50
Quarterly 21.16% 43.42% 24.79% 45.65% 34.24% 25.72% 22.71 45.05 16.13 63.45
Annual 68.49% 51.44% 16.13 63.45 8.13 125.86
Option Time Horizon 26.34% 19.79% 24.58 41.63 18.89 54.18
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-02-22T14:24 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-04-17 (54 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $31.99  |  Strike (K): $32.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $2.5400 (Bid $2.4900 / Ask $2.5900)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.72% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 47.00%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 68.49% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 72.99% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 51.44% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-02-13 $0.1500
2020-02-20 $0.5000
2019-11-21 $0.5000
2019-08-22 $0.5000
2019-05-23 $0.5000
2019-02-21 $0.5000
2018-11-21 $0.5000
2018-08-23 $0.5000
2018-05-24 $0.5000
2018-02-22 $0.4500
2017-11-22 $0.4500
2017-08-23 $0.4000
2017-05-24 $0.4000
2017-02-22 $0.3500
2016-11-22 $0.3500
2016-08-24 $0.3500
2016-05-25 $0.3500
2016-02-17 $0.3000
2015-11-18 $0.3000
2015-08-19 $0.3000
2015-05-20 $0.2500
2015-02-18 $0.2500
2014-11-19 $0.2500
2014-08-20 $0.2500
2014-05-21 $0.2500
2014-02-19 $0.2500
2013-11-20 $0.2500
2013-08-21 $0.2500
2013-05-22 $0.2500
2013-02-20 $0.2500
2012-12-05 $0.5000
2012-11-20 $0.2500
2012-08-22 $0.2500
2012-05-23 $0.2500
2012-02-22 $0.2500
2011-11-22 $0.2500
2011-08-24 $0.2500
2011-05-18 $0.2500
2011-02-16 $0.2500
2010-11-17 $0.1000
2010-08-18 $0.1000
2010-05-19 $0.1000
2010-02-17 $0.1000
2008-11-19 $0.4000
2008-08-20 $0.4000
2008-05-21 $0.4000
2008-02-20 $0.4000
2007-11-20 $0.4000
2007-08-22 $0.3500
2007-05-16 $0.3500
2007-02-14 $0.2750
2006-11-15 $0.2750
2006-08-16 $0.2500
2006-05-17 $0.2500
2006-02-15 $0.2500
2005-11-16 $0.2500
2005-08-17 $0.2000
2005-05-18 $0.2000
2005-02-16 $0.1500
2004-11-17 $0.1500
2004-08-18 $0.1250
2004-05-19 $0.1250
2004-02-18 $0.1250
2003-11-19 $0.1250
2003-08-20 $0.1050
2003-05-21 $0.1050
2003-02-26 $0.1050
2002-11-26 $0.1050
2002-08-28 $0.1050
2002-05-29 $0.1050
2002-02-26 $0.1050
2001-11-28 $0.1050
2001-08-29 $0.1050
2001-05-29 $0.1050
2001-02-26 $0.1050
2000-11-28 $0.1050
2000-08-29 $0.1050
2000-05-26 $0.1050
2000-02-24 $0.1050
1999-11-26 $0.1050
1999-08-27 $0.0900
1999-05-26 $0.0900
1999-02-18 $0.0900
1998-11-25 $0.0900
1998-08-27 $0.0750
1998-05-27 $0.0750
1998-02-11 $0.0750
1997-11-25 $0.0750
1997-08-27 $0.0550
1997-05-28 $0.0550
1997-02-26 $0.0550
1996-11-25 $0.0550
1996-08-28 $0.0450
1996-05-29 $0.0450
1996-02-27 $0.0450
1995-11-28 $0.0450
1995-08-29 $0.0375
1995-05-24 $0.0375
1995-02-22 $0.0375
1994-11-23 $0.0375
1994-08-23 $0.0350
1994-05-24 $0.0350
1994-02-22 $0.0350
1993-11-23 $0.0350
1993-08-25 $0.0350
1993-05-24 $0.0350
1993-02-23 $0.0350
1992-11-23 $0.0350
1992-08-25 $0.0350
1992-05-26 $0.0350
1992-02-24 $0.0350
1991-11-22 $0.0325
1991-08-26 $0.0300
1991-05-24 $0.0300
1991-02-22 $0.0300
1990-11-26 $0.0300
1990-08-27 $0.0300
1990-05-24 $0.0300
1990-02-22 $0.0300
1989-11-24 $0.0250
1989-08-25 $0.0250
1989-05-24 $0.0250
1989-02-22 $0.0250
1988-12-09 $0.0550
1988-11-23 $0.0250
1988-08-25 $0.0250
1988-05-24 $0.0250
1988-02-23 $0.0250
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.13. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 18.13 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -8.11%600.62%0.62%
-8.11% to -6.07%880.91%1.52%
-6.07% to -4.02%2582.66%4.18%
-4.02% to -1.98%98210.11%14.29%
-1.98% to 0.07%376438.74%53.03%
0.07% to 2.11%318332.76%85.79%
2.11% to 4.16%9209.47%95.26%
4.16% to 6.20%2662.74%97.99%
6.20% to 8.24%1011.04%99.03%
Greater than 8.24%940.97%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.66%2.79% 81.10%68.27%
±2σ -5.39%5.52% 95.19%95.45%
±3σ -8.11%8.24% 98.41%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.93. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 56.76 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.34%00.00%0.00%
-4.34% to -2.52%00.00%0.00%
-2.52% to -0.71%00.00%0.00%
-0.71% to 1.11%108611.18%11.18%
1.11% to 2.92%521553.67%64.85%
2.92% to 4.74%207421.34%86.19%
4.74% to 6.56%7547.76%93.95%
6.56% to 8.38%2912.99%96.94%
8.38% to 10.19%1511.55%98.50%
Greater than 10.19%1461.50%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.50%5.35% 89.52%68.27%
±2σ -1.92%7.77% 96.10%95.45%
±3σ -4.34%10.19% 98.50%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.92. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 20.27 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -6.72%840.86%0.86%
-6.72% to -5.04%1031.06%1.92%
-5.04% to -3.35%2832.91%4.84%
-3.35% to -1.66%103410.64%15.48%
-1.66% to 0.02%354336.46%51.94%
0.02% to 1.71%316932.61%84.55%
1.71% to 3.40%102610.56%95.11%
3.40% to 5.08%2822.90%98.01%
5.08% to 6.77%1191.22%99.24%
Greater than 6.77%740.76%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.23%2.27% 79.55%68.27%
±2σ -4.47%4.52% 94.81%95.45%
±3σ -6.72%6.77% 98.37%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.21. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.08 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -17.35%200.99%0.99%
-17.35% to -12.93%140.70%1.69%
-12.93% to -8.52%582.88%4.57%
-8.52% to -4.10%22511.18%15.75%
-4.10% to 0.31%71735.62%51.37%
0.31% to 4.73%66332.94%84.30%
4.73% to 9.14%1999.89%94.19%
9.14% to 13.56%783.87%98.06%
13.56% to 17.98%211.04%99.11%
Greater than 17.98%180.89%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.57%6.20% 78.69%68.27%
±2σ -11.46%12.09% 94.83%95.45%
±3σ -17.35%17.97% 98.11%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.20. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 32.32 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.94%00.00%0.00%
-11.94% to -6.97%00.00%0.00%
-6.97% to -2.00%00.00%0.00%
-2.00% to 2.97%1989.83%9.83%
2.97% to 7.94%113556.36%66.19%
7.94% to 12.90%40720.21%86.40%
12.90% to 17.87%1527.55%93.94%
17.87% to 22.84%633.13%97.07%
22.84% to 27.81%301.49%98.56%
Greater than 27.81%291.44%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.31%14.56% 88.98%68.27%
±2σ -5.31%21.18% 96.18%95.45%
±3σ -11.94%27.81% 98.56%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.60. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 13.69 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -17.63%70.35%0.35%
-17.63% to -13.19%170.84%1.19%
-13.19% to -8.75%753.72%4.92%
-8.75% to -4.32%21210.53%15.44%
-4.32% to 0.12%75637.54%52.98%
0.12% to 4.55%66332.92%85.90%
4.55% to 8.99%1829.04%94.94%
8.99% to 13.43%582.88%97.82%
13.43% to 17.86%150.74%98.56%
Greater than 17.86%291.44%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.80%6.03% 80.49%68.27%
±2σ -11.71%11.95% 95.33%95.45%
±3σ -17.63%17.86% 98.21%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.20. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 5.02 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -33.59%40.86%0.86%
-33.59% to -24.86%61.30%2.16%
-24.86% to -16.13%132.81%4.97%
-16.13% to -7.41%5411.66%16.63%
-7.41% to 1.32%16134.77%51.40%
1.32% to 10.05%15232.83%84.23%
10.05% to 18.77%4810.37%94.60%
18.77% to 27.50%163.46%98.06%
27.50% to 36.23%51.08%99.14%
Greater than 36.23%40.86%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -10.31%12.96% 77.75%68.27%
±2σ -21.95%24.59% 95.46%95.45%
±3σ -33.59%36.23% 98.27%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 8.66. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 119.56 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -40.36%00.00%0.00%
-40.36% to -25.50%00.00%0.00%
-25.50% to -10.63%00.00%0.00%
-10.63% to 4.24%30.65%0.65%
4.24% to 19.10%31267.24%67.89%
19.10% to 33.97%10121.77%89.66%
33.97% to 48.84%296.25%95.91%
48.84% to 63.70%61.29%97.20%
63.70% to 78.57%91.94%99.14%
Greater than 78.57%40.86%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -0.72%38.93% 92.89%68.27%
±2σ -20.54%58.75% 96.98%95.45%
±3σ -40.36%78.57% 99.14%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.60. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 33.79 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -39.88%00.00%0.00%
-39.88% to -29.83%20.43%0.43%
-29.83% to -19.78%91.94%2.37%
-19.78% to -9.73%5411.64%14.01%
-9.73% to 0.32%19842.67%56.68%
0.32% to 10.37%14130.39%87.07%
10.37% to 20.42%398.41%95.47%
20.42% to 30.48%102.16%97.63%
30.48% to 40.53%61.29%98.92%
Greater than 40.53%51.08%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -13.08%13.72% 81.90%68.27%
±2σ -26.48%27.12% 96.34%95.45%
±3σ -39.88%40.53% 98.92%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.60. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 3.44 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -59.38%10.65%0.65%
-59.38% to -43.52%21.29%1.94%
-43.52% to -27.65%63.87%5.81%
-27.65% to -11.79%1710.97%16.77%
-11.79% to 4.08%5636.13%52.90%
4.08% to 19.95%4428.39%81.29%
19.95% to 35.81%2113.55%94.84%
35.81% to 51.68%53.23%98.06%
51.68% to 67.55%21.29%99.35%
Greater than 67.55%10.65%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -17.07%25.24% 78.06%68.27%
±2σ -38.23%46.39% 93.55%95.45%
±3σ -59.38%67.55% 98.71%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 7.06. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 67.75 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -91.99%00.00%0.00%
-91.99% to -59.43%00.00%0.00%
-59.43% to -26.86%00.00%0.00%
-26.86% to 5.70%00.00%0.00%
5.70% to 38.27%11372.44%72.44%
38.27% to 70.83%2717.31%89.74%
70.83% to 103.40%106.41%96.15%
103.40% to 135.96%53.21%99.36%
135.96% to 168.53%00.00%99.36%
Greater than 168.53%10.64%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.15%81.69% 91.67%68.27%
±2σ -48.57%125.11% 98.08%95.45%
±3σ -91.99%168.53% 99.36%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.94. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 16.41 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -73.26%00.00%0.00%
-73.26% to -54.67%00.00%0.00%
-54.67% to -36.08%21.28%1.28%
-36.08% to -17.49%2516.03%17.31%
-17.49% to 1.10%6742.95%60.26%
1.10% to 19.69%4629.49%89.74%
19.69% to 38.28%74.49%94.23%
38.28% to 56.87%42.56%96.79%
56.87% to 75.45%21.28%98.08%
Greater than 75.45%31.92%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -23.69%25.88% 83.97%68.27%
±2σ -48.47%50.67% 95.51%95.45%
±3σ -73.26%75.45% 98.08%99.73%