EXPE Deep Analytical Report

Expedia Group, Inc. | Category: Equity Large Cap | Ann. Div Yield: 0.80% ($1.60) | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 | Data Range: 2005-07-01 → 2026-02-01 (248 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 2.81% 2.15% 2.13% 3.55% 2.68% 2.80% 198.10 209.01 192.86 214.69
Weekly 6.25% 7.00% 6.83% 8.49% 5.90% 6.17% 191.82 215.85 180.83 228.97
Monthly 12.58% 15.49% 14.46% 18.59% 12.28% 12.84% 179.96 230.07 159.16 260.14
Quarterly 21.52% 28.62% 24.41% 34.06% 21.28% 22.24% 164.48 251.72 132.96 311.40
Annual 42.55% 44.48% 132.96 311.40 86.88 476.56
Option Time Horizon 16.37% 17.11% 172.76 239.66 146.68 282.28
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-02-22T14:21 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-04-17 (54 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $203.48  |  Strike (K): $210.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $10.9750 (Bid $10.7500 / Ask $11.2000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.72% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.80%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 42.55% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 43.05% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 44.48% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2025-11-19 $0.4000
2025-08-28 $0.4000
2025-05-29 $0.4000
2025-03-06 $0.4000
2020-03-09 $0.3400
2019-11-18 $0.3400
2019-08-21 $0.3400
2019-05-22 $0.3200
2019-03-06 $0.3200
2018-11-14 $0.3200
2018-08-22 $0.3200
2018-05-23 $0.3000
2018-03-07 $0.3000
2017-11-15 $0.3000
2017-08-22 $0.3000
2017-05-23 $0.2800
2017-03-07 $0.2800
2016-11-15 $0.2600
2016-08-23 $0.2600
2016-05-24 $0.2400
2016-03-08 $0.2400
2015-11-17 $0.2400
2015-08-25 $0.2400
2015-05-26 $0.1800
2015-03-06 $0.1800
2014-11-18 $0.1800
2014-08-25 $0.1800
2014-05-28 $0.1500
2014-03-06 $0.1500
2013-11-19 $0.1500
2013-08-26 $0.1500
2013-05-28 $0.1300
2013-03-07 $0.1300
2012-12-13 $0.5200
2012-11-14 $0.1300
2012-08-24 $0.1300
2012-05-25 $0.0900
2012-03-08 $0.0900
2011-12-21 $15.1250
2011-11-16 $0.1400
2011-08-24 $0.1400
2011-05-25 $0.1400
2011-03-09 $0.1400
2010-11-16 $0.1400
2010-08-24 $0.1400
2010-05-25 $0.1400
2010-03-09 $0.1400
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.22. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 19.92 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -8.37%330.64%0.64%
-8.37% to -6.26%390.75%1.39%
-6.26% to -4.15%1112.14%3.53%
-4.15% to -2.04%54710.56%14.10%
-2.04% to 0.08%188336.37%50.46%
0.08% to 2.19%184435.61%86.08%
2.19% to 4.30%52010.04%96.12%
4.30% to 6.41%1212.34%98.46%
6.41% to 8.52%330.64%99.09%
Greater than 8.52%470.91%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.74%2.89% 82.35%68.27%
±2σ -5.55%5.71% 95.94%95.45%
±3σ -8.37%8.52% 98.46%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.25. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 18.33 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -3.22%00.00%0.00%
-3.22% to -1.61%00.00%0.00%
-1.61% to -0.00%00.00%0.00%
-0.00% to 1.60%76314.73%14.73%
1.60% to 3.21%256049.43%64.16%
3.21% to 4.82%114422.09%86.25%
4.82% to 6.43%3837.40%93.65%
6.43% to 8.04%1573.03%96.68%
8.04% to 9.65%691.33%98.01%
Greater than 9.65%1031.99%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.07%5.36% 87.18%68.27%
±2σ -1.08%7.50% 95.93%95.45%
±3σ -3.22%9.65% 98.01%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.39. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 6.66 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -6.41%400.77%0.77%
-6.41% to -4.81%420.81%1.58%
-4.81% to -3.21%1843.55%5.14%
-3.21% to -1.61%61311.84%16.97%
-1.61% to -0.01%172433.29%50.26%
-0.01% to 1.59%173433.48%83.74%
1.59% to 3.19%55810.77%94.52%
3.19% to 4.80%1853.57%98.09%
4.80% to 6.40%601.16%99.25%
Greater than 6.40%390.75%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.14%2.13% 77.79%68.27%
±2σ -4.28%4.26% 95.15%95.45%
±3σ -6.41%6.40% 98.47%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.29. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.83 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -18.38%90.84%0.84%
-18.38% to -13.70%111.02%1.86%
-13.70% to -9.01%312.89%4.75%
-9.01% to -4.32%11610.80%15.55%
-4.32% to 0.37%36834.26%49.81%
0.37% to 5.06%38335.66%85.47%
5.06% to 9.75%1059.78%95.25%
9.75% to 14.43%292.70%97.95%
14.43% to 19.12%131.21%99.16%
Greater than 19.12%90.84%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.88%6.62% 80.07%68.27%
±2σ -12.13%12.87% 94.41%95.45%
±3σ -18.38%19.12% 98.32%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 5.03. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 50.31 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -12.47%00.00%0.00%
-12.47% to -7.22%00.00%0.00%
-7.22% to -1.97%00.00%0.00%
-1.97% to 3.28%767.07%7.07%
3.28% to 8.53%64860.28%67.35%
8.53% to 13.78%21419.91%87.26%
13.78% to 19.03%706.51%93.77%
19.03% to 24.29%363.35%97.12%
24.29% to 29.54%121.12%98.23%
Greater than 29.54%191.77%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.53%15.53% 89.95%68.27%
±2σ -5.47%22.54% 96.56%95.45%
±3σ -12.47%29.54% 98.23%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.10. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 32.63 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -20.34%30.28%0.28%
-20.34% to -15.22%70.65%0.93%
-15.22% to -10.10%252.33%3.26%
-10.10% to -4.98%1019.40%12.65%
-4.98% to 0.14%45642.42%55.07%
0.14% to 5.27%35032.56%87.63%
5.27% to 10.39%868.00%95.63%
10.39% to 15.51%242.23%97.86%
15.51% to 20.64%131.21%99.07%
Greater than 20.64%100.93%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -6.69%6.97% 83.81%68.27%
±2σ -13.52%13.80% 95.63%95.45%
±3σ -20.35%20.64% 98.79%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.10. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 1.87 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -36.20%20.81%0.81%
-36.20% to -26.76%31.21%2.02%
-26.76% to -17.32%114.45%6.48%
-17.32% to -7.89%2911.74%18.22%
-7.89% to 1.55%7831.58%49.80%
1.55% to 10.99%7630.77%80.57%
10.99% to 20.43%3212.96%93.52%
20.43% to 29.86%104.05%97.57%
29.86% to 39.30%41.62%99.19%
Greater than 39.30%20.81%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -11.03%14.13% 77.73%68.27%
±2σ -23.62%26.72% 92.31%95.45%
±3σ -36.20%39.30% 98.38%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.73. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 21.61 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -26.26%00.00%0.00%
-26.26% to -14.64%00.00%0.00%
-14.64% to -3.03%00.00%0.00%
-3.03% to 8.59%2510.08%10.08%
8.59% to 20.20%14257.26%67.34%
20.20% to 31.82%4819.35%86.69%
31.82% to 43.43%156.05%92.74%
43.43% to 55.05%114.44%97.18%
55.05% to 66.66%52.02%99.19%
Greater than 66.66%20.81%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 4.72%35.69% 91.13%68.27%
±2σ -10.77%51.18% 95.97%95.45%
±3σ -26.26%66.66% 99.19%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.06. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 9.54 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -42.93%00.00%0.00%
-42.93% to -32.09%10.40%0.40%
-32.09% to -21.25%83.23%3.63%
-21.25% to -10.40%2911.69%15.32%
-10.40% to 0.44%10441.94%57.26%
0.44% to 11.28%7329.44%86.69%
11.28% to 22.12%197.66%94.35%
22.12% to 32.97%62.42%96.77%
32.97% to 43.81%52.02%98.79%
Greater than 43.81%31.21%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -14.02%14.90% 81.45%68.27%
±2σ -28.48%29.35% 94.76%95.45%
±3σ -42.93%43.81% 98.79%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.00. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of -0.08 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -60.00%00.00%0.00%
-60.00% to -43.86%11.20%1.20%
-43.86% to -27.71%56.02%7.23%
-27.71% to -11.57%1416.87%24.10%
-11.57% to 4.58%2024.10%48.19%
4.58% to 20.72%2428.92%77.11%
20.72% to 36.86%1416.87%93.98%
36.86% to 53.01%44.82%98.80%
53.01% to 69.15%11.20%100.00%
Greater than 69.15%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -16.95%26.10% 67.47%68.27%
±2σ -38.47%47.62% 93.98%95.45%
±3σ -60.00%69.15% 100.00%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.25. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 14.34 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -45.65%00.00%0.00%
-45.65% to -24.19%00.00%0.00%
-24.19% to -2.72%00.00%0.00%
-2.72% to 18.75%78.33%8.33%
18.75% to 40.21%4857.14%65.48%
40.21% to 61.68%2023.81%89.29%
61.68% to 83.14%44.76%94.05%
83.14% to 104.61%11.19%95.24%
104.61% to 126.08%22.38%97.62%
Greater than 126.08%22.38%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 11.59%68.83% 92.86%68.27%
±2σ -17.03%97.46% 94.05%95.45%
±3σ -45.65%126.08% 97.62%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.49. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 3.54 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -72.20%00.00%0.00%
-72.20% to -53.90%00.00%0.00%
-53.90% to -35.59%11.19%1.19%
-35.59% to -17.29%1821.43%22.62%
-17.29% to 1.01%3238.10%60.71%
1.01% to 19.32%1720.24%80.95%
19.32% to 37.62%910.71%91.67%
37.62% to 55.92%44.76%96.43%
55.92% to 74.23%22.38%98.81%
Greater than 74.23%11.19%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -23.39%25.42% 72.62%68.27%
±2σ -47.80%49.82% 95.24%95.45%
±3σ -72.20%74.23% 98.81%99.73%