EXPE 深度分析报告

Expedia Group, Inc. | 分类: Equity Large Cap | 年化股息率: 0.64% ($1.60) | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 2005-07-01 → 2026-04-01 (250 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 2.82% 2.14% 2.14% 3.61% 3.59% 3.66% 242.57 260.63 234.02 270.16
周度 6.28% 7.00% 6.85% 8.67% 7.90% 8.07% 232.33 272.12 214.68 294.50
月度 12.51% 15.48% 14.36% 18.99% 16.45% 16.79% 213.30 296.41 180.94 349.41
季度 21.33% 28.64% 24.17% 34.20% 28.50% 29.08% 189.09 334.34 142.21 444.58
Annual 56.99% 58.16% 142.21 444.58 80.43 786.08
Option Time Horizon 21.72% 22.16% 202.36 312.43 162.85 388.21
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:47 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $251.44  |  Strike (K): $260.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $18.7500 (Bid $17.9000 / Ask $19.6000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.64%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 56.99% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 57.55% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 58.16% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-03-05 $0.4800
2025-11-19 $0.4000
2025-08-28 $0.4000
2025-05-29 $0.4000
2025-03-06 $0.4000
2020-03-09 $0.3400
2019-11-18 $0.3400
2019-08-21 $0.3400
2019-05-22 $0.3200
2019-03-06 $0.3200
2018-11-14 $0.3200
2018-08-22 $0.3200
2018-05-23 $0.3000
2018-03-07 $0.3000
2017-11-15 $0.3000
2017-08-22 $0.3000
2017-05-23 $0.2800
2017-03-07 $0.2800
2016-11-15 $0.2600
2016-08-23 $0.2600
2016-05-24 $0.2400
2016-03-08 $0.2400
2015-11-17 $0.2400
2015-08-25 $0.2400
2015-05-26 $0.1800
2015-03-06 $0.1800
2014-11-18 $0.1800
2014-08-25 $0.1800
2014-05-28 $0.1500
2014-03-06 $0.1500
2013-11-19 $0.1500
2013-08-26 $0.1500
2013-05-28 $0.1300
2013-03-07 $0.1300
2012-12-13 $0.5200
2012-11-14 $0.1300
2012-08-24 $0.1300
2012-05-25 $0.0900
2012-03-08 $0.0900
2011-12-21 $15.1250
2011-11-16 $0.1400
2011-08-24 $0.1400
2011-05-25 $0.1400
2011-03-09 $0.1400
2010-11-16 $0.1400
2010-08-24 $0.1400
2010-05-25 $0.1400
2010-03-09 $0.1400
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of -0.20. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 19.62 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -8.39%330.63%0.63%
-8.39% to -6.27%400.77%1.40%
-6.27% to -4.15%1102.11%3.50%
-4.15% to -2.04%55410.61%14.11%
-2.04% to 0.08%190436.46%50.57%
0.08% to 2.20%185235.47%86.04%
2.20% to 4.31%52410.03%96.07%
4.31% to 6.43%1232.36%98.43%
6.43% to 8.55%350.67%99.10%
Greater than 8.55%470.90%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.74%2.90% 82.25%68.27%
±2σ -5.56%5.72% 96.00%95.45%
±3σ -8.39%8.55% 98.47%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.22. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 18.12 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -3.21%00.00%0.00%
-3.21% to -1.60%00.00%0.00%
-1.60% to 0.01%00.00%0.00%
0.01% to 1.62%78014.93%14.93%
1.62% to 3.23%256249.05%63.99%
3.23% to 4.83%115522.11%86.10%
4.83% to 6.44%3967.58%93.68%
6.44% to 8.05%1573.01%96.69%
8.05% to 9.66%701.34%98.03%
Greater than 9.66%1031.97%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.08%5.37% 86.79%68.27%
±2σ -1.06%7.52% 95.96%95.45%
±3σ -3.21%9.66% 98.03%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.38. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 6.54 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -6.43%400.77%0.77%
-6.43% to -4.83%440.84%1.61%
-4.83% to -3.22%1853.54%5.15%
-3.22% to -1.62%61611.79%16.94%
-1.62% to -0.01%173333.18%50.12%
-0.01% to 1.59%175533.60%83.73%
1.59% to 3.20%56110.74%94.47%
3.20% to 4.81%1893.62%98.09%
4.81% to 6.41%621.19%99.27%
Greater than 6.41%380.73%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.15%2.13% 77.73%68.27%
±2σ -4.29%4.27% 95.18%95.45%
±3σ -6.43%6.41% 98.51%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.29. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.59 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -18.45%90.83%0.83%
-18.45% to -13.74%111.02%1.85%
-13.74% to -9.03%312.86%4.71%
-9.03% to -4.32%11610.71%15.42%
-4.32% to 0.39%37234.35%49.77%
0.39% to 5.10%38735.73%85.50%
5.10% to 9.81%1039.51%95.01%
9.81% to 14.52%333.05%98.06%
14.52% to 19.23%121.11%99.17%
Greater than 19.23%90.83%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.89%6.67% 79.87%68.27%
±2σ -12.17%12.95% 94.28%95.45%
±3σ -18.45%19.23% 98.34%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 5.00. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 49.99 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -12.42%00.00%0.00%
-12.42% to -7.17%00.00%0.00%
-7.17% to -1.93%00.00%0.00%
-1.93% to 3.32%807.38%7.38%
3.32% to 8.56%64759.69%67.07%
8.56% to 13.81%21720.02%87.08%
13.81% to 19.06%736.73%93.82%
19.06% to 24.30%363.32%97.14%
24.30% to 29.55%131.20%98.34%
Greater than 29.55%181.66%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.57%15.56% 89.94%68.27%
±2σ -5.43%22.55% 96.49%95.45%
±3σ -12.42%29.55% 98.34%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.04. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 31.98 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -20.43%30.28%0.28%
-20.43% to -15.29%70.65%0.92%
-15.29% to -10.15%282.58%3.51%
-10.15% to -5.01%1019.32%12.82%
-5.01% to 0.13%45742.16%54.98%
0.13% to 5.27%35332.56%87.55%
5.27% to 10.40%878.03%95.57%
10.40% to 15.54%262.40%97.97%
15.54% to 20.68%121.11%99.08%
Greater than 20.68%100.92%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -6.72%6.98% 83.58%68.27%
±2σ -13.57%13.83% 95.57%95.45%
±3σ -20.43%20.68% 98.80%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.10. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 1.90 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -35.92%20.80%0.80%
-35.92% to -26.54%41.61%2.41%
-26.54% to -17.15%104.02%6.43%
-17.15% to -7.76%2911.65%18.07%
-7.76% to 1.62%7831.33%49.40%
1.62% to 11.01%7831.33%80.72%
11.01% to 20.39%3212.85%93.57%
20.39% to 29.78%104.02%97.59%
29.78% to 39.16%41.61%99.20%
Greater than 39.16%20.80%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -10.89%14.13% 77.11%68.27%
±2σ -23.41%26.65% 92.37%95.45%
±3σ -35.92%39.16% 98.39%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.71. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 21.43 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -26.16%00.00%0.00%
-26.16% to -14.55%00.00%0.00%
-14.55% to -2.94%00.00%0.00%
-2.94% to 8.66%2510.00%10.00%
8.66% to 20.27%14457.60%67.60%
20.27% to 31.88%4919.60%87.20%
31.88% to 43.49%145.60%92.80%
43.49% to 55.10%114.40%97.20%
55.10% to 66.71%52.00%99.20%
Greater than 66.71%20.80%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 4.79%35.75% 91.20%68.27%
±2σ -10.68%51.23% 95.60%95.45%
±3σ -26.16%66.71% 99.20%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.08. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 9.76 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -42.75%00.00%0.00%
-42.75% to -31.98%10.40%0.40%
-31.98% to -21.21%83.20%3.60%
-21.21% to -10.44%2911.60%15.20%
-10.44% to 0.34%10542.00%57.20%
0.34% to 11.11%7329.20%86.40%
11.11% to 21.88%208.00%94.40%
21.88% to 32.65%62.40%96.80%
32.65% to 43.42%52.00%98.80%
Greater than 43.42%31.20%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -14.03%14.70% 81.60%68.27%
±2σ -28.39%29.06% 95.20%95.45%
±3σ -42.75%43.42% 98.80%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of -0.01. Further, an Excess 峰度 of -0.01 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -59.20%00.00%0.00%
-59.20% to -43.20%11.20%1.20%
-43.20% to -27.20%56.02%7.23%
-27.20% to -11.21%1315.66%22.89%
-11.21% to 4.79%2125.30%48.19%
4.79% to 20.79%2428.92%77.11%
20.79% to 36.79%1416.87%93.98%
36.79% to 52.79%44.82%98.80%
52.79% to 68.79%11.20%100.00%
Greater than 68.79%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -16.54%26.12% 67.47%68.27%
±2σ -37.87%47.46% 93.98%95.45%
±3σ -59.20%68.79% 100.00%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.23. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 14.25 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -45.64%00.00%0.00%
-45.64% to -24.16%00.00%0.00%
-24.16% to -2.68%00.00%0.00%
-2.68% to 18.80%78.33%8.33%
18.80% to 40.28%4857.14%65.48%
40.28% to 61.76%2023.81%89.29%
61.76% to 83.25%44.76%94.05%
83.25% to 104.73%11.19%95.24%
104.73% to 126.21%22.38%97.62%
Greater than 126.21%22.38%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 11.64%68.92% 92.86%68.27%
±2σ -17.00%97.57% 94.05%95.45%
±3σ -45.64%126.21% 97.62%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.55. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.85 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -71.79%00.00%0.00%
-71.79% to -53.66%00.00%0.00%
-53.66% to -35.54%11.19%1.19%
-35.54% to -17.41%1720.24%21.43%
-17.41% to 0.71%3339.29%60.71%
0.71% to 18.84%1821.43%82.14%
18.84% to 36.97%89.52%91.67%
36.97% to 55.09%44.76%96.43%
55.09% to 73.22%22.38%98.81%
Greater than 73.22%11.19%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -23.45%24.88% 75.00%68.27%
±2σ -47.62%49.05% 95.24%95.45%
±3σ -71.79%73.22% 98.81%99.73%