HLT Deep Analytical Report

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | Category: Equity Mega Cap | Ann. Div Yield: 0.21% ($0.60) | Last Updated: 2026-03-24 | Data Range: 2013-12-01 → 2026-03-01 (148 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 1.77% 1.67% 1.50% 2.40% 2.06% 2.34% 296.90 309.40 290.84 315.85
Weekly 3.83% 4.45% 3.87% 5.60% 4.54% 5.14% 289.64 317.17 276.79 331.89
Monthly 7.43% 11.59% 7.77% 11.90% 9.45% 10.71% 275.76 333.13 250.90 366.14
Quarterly 12.16% 22.33% 12.86% 19.37% 16.37% 18.55% 257.33 356.99 218.48 420.47
Annual 32.73% 37.10% 218.48 420.47 157.49 583.30
Option Time Horizon 12.36% 14.00% 267.86 342.95 236.73 388.05
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-03-23T16:36 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-05-15 (52 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $303.09  |  Strike (K): $310.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $12.7000 (Bid $11.2000 / Ask $14.2000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.73% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.21%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 32.73% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 33.11% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 37.10% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-02-27 $0.1500
2025-11-21 $0.1500
2025-08-29 $0.1500
2025-05-23 $0.1500
2025-02-21 $0.1500
2024-11-15 $0.1500
2024-08-23 $0.1500
2024-05-16 $0.1500
2024-02-22 $0.1500
2023-11-16 $0.1500
2023-08-24 $0.1500
2023-05-18 $0.1500
2023-02-27 $0.1500
2022-11-09 $0.1500
2022-08-25 $0.1500
2022-05-26 $0.1500
2020-02-27 $0.1500
2019-11-07 $0.1500
2019-08-08 $0.1500
2019-05-16 $0.1500
2019-02-28 $0.1500
2018-11-08 $0.1500
2018-08-09 $0.1500
2018-05-10 $0.1500
2018-03-01 $0.1500
2017-11-16 $0.1500
2017-08-16 $0.1500
2017-05-10 $0.1500
2017-03-08 $0.1500
2016-11-08 $0.1436
2016-08-17 $0.1436
2016-05-18 $0.1436
2016-03-16 $0.1436
2015-11-24 $0.1436
2015-08-12 $0.1436
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.09. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 5.77 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -5.24%220.71%0.71%
-5.24% to -3.91%311.00%1.72%
-3.91% to -2.58%1173.79%5.51%
-2.58% to -1.25%35411.47%16.99%
-1.25% to 0.08%102533.23%50.21%
0.08% to 1.41%102033.06%83.27%
1.41% to 2.74%35011.35%94.62%
2.74% to 4.07%1163.76%98.38%
4.07% to 5.40%260.84%99.22%
Greater than 5.40%240.78%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.69%1.85% 77.41%68.27%
±2σ -3.47%3.63% 95.20%95.45%
±3σ -5.24%5.40% 98.54%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 5.97. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 68.83 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -2.70%00.00%0.00%
-2.70% to -1.45%00.00%0.00%
-1.45% to -0.19%00.00%0.00%
-0.19% to 1.06%2949.53%9.53%
1.06% to 2.31%168554.60%64.13%
2.31% to 3.57%71223.07%87.20%
3.57% to 4.82%2488.04%95.24%
4.82% to 6.08%762.46%97.70%
6.08% to 7.33%371.20%98.90%
Greater than 7.33%341.10%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.64%3.99% 90.76%68.27%
±2σ -1.03%5.66% 97.15%95.45%
±3σ -2.70%7.33% 98.93%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.36. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 3.34 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.51%150.49%0.49%
-4.51% to -3.38%311.00%1.49%
-3.38% to -2.26%1183.82%5.31%
-2.26% to -1.13%40713.19%18.50%
-1.13% to -0.00%101132.76%51.26%
-0.00% to 1.12%94930.75%82.02%
1.12% to 2.25%36411.80%93.81%
2.25% to 3.38%1274.12%97.93%
3.38% to 4.51%451.46%99.38%
Greater than 4.51%190.62%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.50%1.50% 75.44%68.27%
±2σ -3.01%3.00% 94.75%95.45%
±3σ -4.51%4.51% 98.90%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.40. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 3.13 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.12%60.94%0.94%
-11.12% to -8.24%101.56%2.50%
-8.24% to -5.37%243.75%6.25%
-5.37% to -2.49%7111.09%17.34%
-2.49% to 0.38%20331.72%49.06%
0.38% to 3.26%21132.97%82.03%
3.26% to 6.13%8312.97%95.00%
6.13% to 9.01%243.75%98.75%
9.01% to 11.89%60.94%99.69%
Greater than 11.89%20.31%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.45%4.22% 75.94%68.27%
±2σ -7.28%8.05% 94.22%95.45%
±3σ -11.12%11.89% 98.75%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 5.31. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 49.21 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.39%00.00%0.00%
-7.39% to -4.06%00.00%0.00%
-4.06% to -0.72%00.00%0.00%
-0.72% to 2.62%558.58%8.58%
2.62% to 5.95%35355.07%63.65%
5.95% to 9.29%16024.96%88.61%
9.29% to 12.62%446.86%95.48%
12.62% to 15.96%132.03%97.50%
15.96% to 19.30%71.09%98.60%
Greater than 19.30%91.40%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.50%10.40% 91.89%68.27%
±2σ -2.95%14.85% 97.04%95.45%
±3σ -7.39%19.30% 98.60%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.20. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 6.75 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.70%20.31%0.31%
-11.70% to -8.80%10.16%0.47%
-8.80% to -5.90%274.21%4.68%
-5.90% to -2.99%8012.48%17.16%
-2.99% to -0.09%23436.51%53.67%
-0.09% to 2.81%19630.58%84.24%
2.81% to 5.72%599.20%93.45%
5.72% to 8.62%264.06%97.50%
8.62% to 11.52%91.40%98.91%
Greater than 11.52%71.09%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.96%3.78% 75.98%68.27%
±2σ -7.83%7.65% 95.16%95.45%
±3σ -11.70%11.52% 98.60%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.47. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.17 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -20.67%21.36%1.36%
-20.67% to -15.10%10.68%2.04%
-15.10% to -9.53%42.72%4.76%
-9.53% to -3.96%2214.97%19.73%
-3.96% to 1.61%3926.53%46.26%
1.61% to 7.18%4731.97%78.23%
7.18% to 12.76%2416.33%94.56%
12.76% to 18.33%64.08%98.64%
18.33% to 23.90%21.36%100.00%
Greater than 23.90%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.81%9.04% 76.19%68.27%
±2σ -13.24%16.47% 94.56%95.45%
±3σ -20.67%23.90% 98.64%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 6.14. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 52.85 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -20.99%00.00%0.00%
-20.99% to -12.29%00.00%0.00%
-12.29% to -3.60%00.00%0.00%
-3.60% to 5.10%00.00%0.00%
5.10% to 13.79%10369.59%69.59%
13.79% to 22.49%3020.27%89.86%
22.49% to 31.19%85.41%95.27%
31.19% to 39.88%53.38%98.65%
39.88% to 48.58%00.00%98.65%
Greater than 48.58%21.35%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 2.20%25.39% 91.89%68.27%
±2σ -9.39%36.98% 97.97%95.45%
±3σ -20.99%48.58% 98.65%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.53. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 6.49 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -24.20%00.00%0.00%
-24.20% to -18.38%00.00%0.00%
-18.38% to -12.55%64.05%4.05%
-12.55% to -6.72%2416.22%20.27%
-6.72% to -0.90%5335.81%56.08%
-0.90% to 4.92%3825.68%81.76%
4.92% to 10.75%1912.84%94.59%
10.75% to 16.58%53.38%97.97%
16.58% to 22.40%10.68%98.65%
Greater than 22.40%21.35%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.67%6.87% 78.38%68.27%
±2σ -16.43%14.63% 95.95%95.45%
±3σ -24.20%22.40% 98.65%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Left Skewed (Negative Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of -0.66. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 1.14 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -31.62%00.00%0.00%
-31.62% to -22.50%24.08%4.08%
-22.50% to -13.38%12.04%6.12%
-13.38% to -4.26%510.20%16.33%
-4.26% to 4.86%1530.61%46.94%
4.86% to 13.97%1530.61%77.55%
13.97% to 23.09%714.29%91.84%
23.09% to 32.21%48.16%100.00%
32.21% to 41.33%00.00%100.00%
Greater than 41.33%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.30%17.01% 75.51%68.27%
±2σ -19.46%29.17% 95.92%95.45%
±3σ -31.62%41.33% 100.00%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.79. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 28.12 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -41.58%00.00%0.00%
-41.58% to -24.83%00.00%0.00%
-24.83% to -8.08%00.00%0.00%
-8.08% to 8.66%12.00%2.00%
8.66% to 25.41%3468.00%70.00%
25.41% to 42.16%1122.00%92.00%
42.16% to 58.91%24.00%96.00%
58.91% to 75.65%12.00%98.00%
75.65% to 92.40%00.00%98.00%
Greater than 92.40%12.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 3.08%47.74% 94.00%68.27%
±2σ -19.25%70.07% 98.00%95.45%
±3σ -41.58%92.40% 98.00%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.82. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 4.78 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -41.45%00.00%0.00%
-41.45% to -31.81%00.00%0.00%
-31.81% to -22.16%00.00%0.00%
-22.16% to -12.51%1122.00%22.00%
-12.51% to -2.87%1734.00%56.00%
-2.87% to 6.78%1428.00%84.00%
6.78% to 16.43%510.00%94.00%
16.43% to 26.07%12.00%96.00%
26.07% to 35.72%00.00%96.00%
Greater than 35.72%24.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -15.73%10.00% 82.00%68.27%
±2σ -28.59%22.86% 94.00%95.45%
±3σ -41.45%35.72% 96.00%99.73%