HLT 深度分析报告

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 分类: Equity Mega Cap | 年化股息率: 0.18% ($0.60) | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 2013-12-01 → 2026-04-01 (149 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 1.77% 1.67% 1.50% 2.40% 1.76% 1.96% 329.76 341.60 324.00 347.68
周度 3.83% 4.44% 3.87% 5.61% 3.88% 4.31% 322.85 348.92 310.55 362.73
月度 7.44% 11.55% 7.77% 11.98% 8.08% 8.96% 309.57 363.88 285.53 394.51
季度 12.20% 22.30% 12.90% 19.55% 14.00% 15.53% 291.79 386.06 253.67 444.07
Annual 28.00% 31.06% 253.67 444.07 191.72 587.56
Option Time Horizon 10.67% 11.83% 301.67 373.42 271.14 415.46
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:46 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $335.63  |  Strike (K): $340.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $13.1500 (Bid $12.3000 / Ask $14.0000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.18%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 28.00% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 28.20% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 31.06% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-02-27 $0.1500
2025-11-21 $0.1500
2025-08-29 $0.1500
2025-05-23 $0.1500
2025-02-21 $0.1500
2024-11-15 $0.1500
2024-08-23 $0.1500
2024-05-16 $0.1500
2024-02-22 $0.1500
2023-11-16 $0.1500
2023-08-24 $0.1500
2023-05-18 $0.1500
2023-02-27 $0.1500
2022-11-09 $0.1500
2022-08-25 $0.1500
2022-05-26 $0.1500
2020-02-27 $0.1500
2019-11-07 $0.1500
2019-08-08 $0.1500
2019-05-16 $0.1500
2019-02-28 $0.1500
2018-11-08 $0.1500
2018-08-09 $0.1500
2018-05-10 $0.1500
2018-03-01 $0.1500
2017-11-16 $0.1500
2017-08-16 $0.1500
2017-05-10 $0.1500
2017-03-08 $0.1500
2016-11-08 $0.1436
2016-08-17 $0.1436
2016-05-18 $0.1436
2016-03-16 $0.1436
2015-11-24 $0.1436
2015-08-12 $0.1436
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.09. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.74 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -5.24%220.71%0.71%
-5.24% to -3.91%311.00%1.71%
-3.91% to -2.58%1173.76%5.47%
-2.58% to -1.25%35811.52%16.99%
-1.25% to 0.08%103333.24%50.23%
0.08% to 1.41%102933.11%83.33%
1.41% to 2.74%34911.23%94.56%
2.74% to 4.08%1183.80%98.36%
4.08% to 5.41%280.90%99.26%
Greater than 5.41%230.74%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.69%1.86% 77.45%68.27%
±2σ -3.46%3.63% 95.21%95.45%
±3σ -5.24%5.41% 98.55%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 5.98. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 69.20 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -2.69%00.00%0.00%
-2.69% to -1.44%00.00%0.00%
-1.44% to -0.19%00.00%0.00%
-0.19% to 1.06%2999.62%9.62%
1.06% to 2.31%169354.45%64.07%
2.31% to 3.56%71923.13%87.20%
3.56% to 4.81%2518.07%95.27%
4.81% to 6.06%762.44%97.72%
6.06% to 7.31%371.19%98.91%
Greater than 7.31%341.09%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.64%3.98% 90.80%68.27%
±2σ -1.02%5.65% 97.17%95.45%
±3σ -2.69%7.31% 98.91%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.36. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.34 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.51%150.48%0.48%
-4.51% to -3.38%311.00%1.48%
-3.38% to -2.26%1183.80%5.28%
-2.26% to -1.13%41213.25%18.53%
-1.13% to -0.00%102132.84%51.37%
-0.00% to 1.12%95330.65%82.02%
1.12% to 2.25%36611.77%93.79%
2.25% to 3.37%1294.15%97.94%
3.37% to 4.50%451.45%99.39%
Greater than 4.50%190.61%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.50%1.50% 75.39%68.27%
±2σ -3.01%3.00% 94.79%95.45%
±3σ -4.51%4.50% 98.91%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of -0.40. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.10 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.11%60.93%0.93%
-11.11% to -8.23%101.55%2.48%
-8.23% to -5.35%243.72%6.20%
-5.35% to -2.48%7211.16%17.36%
-2.48% to 0.40%20431.63%48.99%
0.40% to 3.27%21333.02%82.02%
3.27% to 6.15%8312.87%94.88%
6.15% to 9.03%253.88%98.76%
9.03% to 11.90%60.93%99.69%
Greater than 11.90%20.31%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.44%4.23% 75.81%68.27%
±2σ -7.27%8.07% 94.26%95.45%
±3σ -11.11%11.90% 98.76%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 5.32. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 49.45 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.36%00.00%0.00%
-7.36% to -4.03%00.00%0.00%
-4.03% to -0.71%00.00%0.00%
-0.71% to 2.62%558.51%8.51%
2.62% to 5.95%35655.11%63.62%
5.95% to 9.28%16124.92%88.54%
9.28% to 12.60%456.97%95.51%
12.60% to 15.93%132.01%97.52%
15.93% to 19.26%71.08%98.61%
Greater than 19.26%91.39%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.51%10.38% 91.80%68.27%
±2σ -2.92%14.82% 97.06%95.45%
±3σ -7.36%19.26% 98.61%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.20. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 6.72 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.71%20.31%0.31%
-11.71% to -8.81%10.15%0.46%
-8.81% to -5.91%284.33%4.80%
-5.91% to -3.01%8112.54%17.34%
-3.01% to -0.10%23336.07%53.41%
-0.10% to 2.80%20030.96%84.37%
2.80% to 5.70%599.13%93.50%
5.70% to 8.60%253.87%97.37%
8.60% to 11.51%101.55%98.92%
Greater than 11.51%71.08%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.98%3.77% 75.70%68.27%
±2σ -7.85%7.63% 95.20%95.45%
±3σ -11.71%11.50% 98.61%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of -0.48. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.14 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -20.63%21.35%1.35%
-20.63% to -15.06%10.68%2.03%
-15.06% to -9.48%42.70%4.73%
-9.48% to -3.90%2315.54%20.27%
-3.90% to 1.68%3825.68%45.95%
1.68% to 7.25%4933.11%79.05%
7.25% to 12.83%2315.54%94.59%
12.83% to 18.41%64.05%98.65%
18.41% to 23.98%21.35%100.00%
Greater than 23.98%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.76%9.11% 75.68%68.27%
±2σ -13.20%16.55% 94.59%95.45%
±3σ -20.63%23.98% 98.65%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 6.16. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 53.18 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -20.86%00.00%0.00%
-20.86% to -12.19%00.00%0.00%
-12.19% to -3.53%00.00%0.00%
-3.53% to 5.14%00.00%0.00%
5.14% to 13.80%10369.13%69.13%
13.80% to 22.47%3120.81%89.93%
22.47% to 31.14%85.37%95.30%
31.14% to 39.80%53.36%98.66%
39.80% to 48.47%00.00%98.66%
Greater than 48.47%21.34%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 2.25%25.36% 91.95%68.27%
±2σ -9.30%36.91% 97.99%95.45%
±3σ -20.86%48.47% 98.66%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.53. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 6.46 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -24.27%00.00%0.00%
-24.27% to -18.45%00.00%0.00%
-18.45% to -12.62%64.03%4.03%
-12.62% to -6.79%2516.78%20.81%
-6.79% to -0.96%5436.24%57.05%
-0.96% to 4.87%3624.16%81.21%
4.87% to 10.70%2013.42%94.63%
10.70% to 16.52%53.36%97.99%
16.52% to 22.35%10.67%98.66%
Greater than 22.35%21.34%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.73%6.81% 77.18%68.27%
±2σ -16.50%14.58% 95.97%95.45%
±3σ -24.27%22.35% 98.66%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Left Skewed (负向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of -0.71. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 1.15 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -31.50%00.00%0.00%
-31.50% to -22.36%24.08%4.08%
-22.36% to -13.21%12.04%6.12%
-13.21% to -4.07%612.24%18.37%
-4.07% to 5.08%1428.57%46.94%
5.08% to 14.23%1530.61%77.55%
14.23% to 23.37%714.29%91.84%
23.37% to 32.52%48.16%100.00%
32.52% to 41.67%00.00%100.00%
Greater than 41.67%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.11%17.28% 73.47%68.27%
±2σ -19.31%29.47% 95.92%95.45%
±3σ -31.50%41.67% 100.00%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 4.80. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 28.21 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -41.42%00.00%0.00%
-41.42% to -24.69%00.00%0.00%
-24.69% to -7.97%00.00%0.00%
-7.97% to 8.76%12.00%2.00%
8.76% to 25.49%3468.00%70.00%
25.49% to 42.21%1122.00%92.00%
42.21% to 58.94%24.00%96.00%
58.94% to 75.67%12.00%98.00%
75.67% to 92.39%00.00%98.00%
Greater than 92.39%12.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 3.18%47.79% 94.00%68.27%
±2σ -19.12%70.09% 98.00%95.45%
±3σ -41.42%92.39% 98.00%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.84. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 4.80 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -41.78%00.00%0.00%
-41.78% to -32.10%00.00%0.00%
-32.10% to -22.42%00.00%0.00%
-22.42% to -12.74%1122.00%22.00%
-12.74% to -3.06%1734.00%56.00%
-3.06% to 6.62%1428.00%84.00%
6.62% to 16.30%510.00%94.00%
16.30% to 25.98%12.00%96.00%
25.98% to 35.65%00.00%96.00%
Greater than 35.65%24.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -15.97%9.84% 82.00%68.27%
±2σ -28.87%22.75% 94.00%95.45%
±3σ -41.78%35.65% 96.00%99.73%