LIN 资产分析 - DOR 信号与波动率

Quick 总览

Timeframe	C-C DoR σ (Historical)	H-L DoR σ (Historical)	O-C DoR σ (Historical)	5Y ATRP (Avg)	Binomial IV (Period)	Yahoo IV (Period)	1σ 低er (68.27%)	1σ Upper	2σ 低er (95.45%)	2σ Upper
日度	1.74%	1.44%	1.51%	1.77%	1.59%	1.72%	502.23	518.50	494.28	526.84
周度	3.70%	3.50%	3.62%	4.10%	3.51%	3.79%	492.70	528.53	475.70	547.41
月度	6.69%	6.92%	6.57%	9.01%	7.31%	7.88%	474.34	548.98	440.92	590.60
季度	10.59%	12.14%	9.84%	14.36%	12.66%	13.65%	449.64	579.15	396.18	657.29
Annual	—	—	—	—	25.31%	27.30%	396.18	657.29	307.59	846.61
Option Time Horizon	—	—	—	—	9.65%	10.40%	463.38	561.97	420.77	618.88

Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:44 UTC | Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days) | Spot 价格 (S): $510.30 | Strike (K): $515.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot) | Observed Mid-价格: $18.3500 (Bid $17.5000 / Ask $19.2000) | Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury) | Dividend Yield (q): 1.18% | Binomial IV (Annual): 25.31% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps) | BS IV: 25.42% (European Black-Scholes) | Yahoo IV (Annual): 27.30% → period-scaled as σ_period = σ_annual·√h | 价格 bands: Upper = S·e^+σ√h, 低er = S·e^−σ√h

Historical Dividend Payouts

Ex-Dividend Date	Amount
2026-03-11	$1.6000
2025-12-03	$1.5000
2025-09-04	$1.5000
2025-06-04	$1.5000
2025-03-13	$1.5000
2024-12-03	$1.3900
2024-09-04	$1.3900
2024-06-04	$1.3900
2024-03-13	$1.3900
2023-12-01	$1.2750
2023-09-01	$1.2750
2023-06-01	$1.2750
2023-03-13	$1.2750
2022-12-01	$1.1700
2022-09-01	$1.1700
2022-06-02	$1.1700
2022-03-10	$1.1700
2021-12-02	$1.0600
2021-09-02	$1.0600
2021-06-02	$1.0600
2021-03-04	$1.0600
2020-12-02	$0.9630
2020-09-02	$0.9630
2020-06-02	$0.9630
2020-03-05	$0.9630
2019-12-02	$0.8750
2019-08-30	$0.8750
2019-05-31	$0.8750
2019-03-07	$0.8750
2018-12-17	$0.8250
2018-08-03	$0.8250
2018-06-06	$0.8250
2018-03-06	$0.8250
2017-12-06	$0.7880
2017-09-07	$0.7880
2017-06-05	$0.7880
2017-03-03	$0.7880
2016-12-05	$0.7500
2016-09-06	$0.7500
2016-06-03	$0.7500
2016-03-03	$0.7500
2015-12-03	$0.7150
2015-09-03	$0.7150
2015-06-03	$0.7150
2015-03-04	$0.7150
2014-12-03	$0.6500
2014-09-04	$0.6500
2014-06-04	$0.6500
2014-03-05	$0.6500
2013-12-04	$0.6000
2013-09-04	$0.6000
2013-06-05	$0.6000
2013-03-05	$0.6000
2012-12-05	$0.5500
2012-09-05	$0.5500
2012-06-05	$0.5500
2012-03-05	$0.5500
2011-12-05	$0.5000
2011-09-02	$0.5000
2011-06-03	$0.5000
2011-03-03	$0.5000
2010-12-03	$0.4500
2010-09-02	$0.4500
2010-06-03	$0.4500
2010-03-03	$0.4500
2009-12-03	$0.4000
2009-09-02	$0.4000
2009-06-03	$0.4000
2009-03-04	$0.4000
2008-12-03	$0.3750
2008-09-03	$0.3750
2008-06-04	$0.3750
2008-03-05	$0.3750
2007-12-05	$0.3000
2007-09-05	$0.3000
2007-06-05	$0.3000
2007-03-05	$0.3000
2006-12-05	$0.2500
2006-09-05	$0.2500
2006-06-05	$0.2500
2006-03-03	$0.2500
2005-12-05	$0.1800
2005-09-02	$0.1800
2005-06-03	$0.1800
2005-03-03	$0.1800
2004-12-03	$0.1500
2004-09-02	$0.1500
2004-06-03	$0.1500
2004-03-03	$0.1500
2003-12-03	$0.1350
2003-09-03	$0.1075
2003-06-04	$0.1075
2003-03-05	$0.1075
2002-12-04	$0.0950
2002-09-04	$0.0950
2002-06-05	$0.0950
2002-03-05	$0.0950
2001-12-05	$0.0850
2001-09-05	$0.0850
2001-06-05	$0.0850
2001-03-05	$0.0850
2000-12-05	$0.0775
2000-09-06	$0.0775
2000-06-05	$0.0775
2000-03-03	$0.0775
1999-12-03	$0.0700
1999-09-02	$0.0700
1999-06-03	$0.0700
1999-03-03	$0.0700
1998-12-03	$0.0625
1998-09-03	$0.0625
1998-06-03	$0.0625
1998-03-04	$0.0625
1997-12-03	$0.0550
1997-09-04	$0.0550
1997-06-04	$0.0550
1997-03-05	$0.0550
1996-12-04	$0.0475
1996-09-05	$0.0475
1996-06-05	$0.0475
1996-03-05	$0.0475
1995-12-05	$0.0400
1995-09-06	$0.0400
1995-06-01	$0.0400
1995-03-01	$0.0400
1994-12-01	$0.0350
1994-09-01	$0.0350
1994-06-01	$0.0350
1994-03-01	$0.0350
1993-12-06	$0.0310
1993-09-02	$0.0310
1993-06-01	$0.0310
1993-03-01	$0.0310
1992-12-01	$0.0310
1992-09-01	$0.0310

收盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.21. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.99 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -5.14%	46	0.54%	0.54%
-5.14% to -3.84%	93	1.09%	1.63%
-3.84% to -2.53%	308	3.61%	5.25%
-2.53% to -1.23%	1034	12.13%	17.38%
-1.23% to 0.07%	2905	34.09%	51.47%
0.07% to 1.37%	2692	31.59%	83.06%
1.37% to 2.68%	974	11.43%	94.48%
2.68% to 3.98%	316	3.71%	98.19%
3.98% to 5.28%	85	1.00%	99.19%
Greater than 5.28%	69	0.81%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-1.67%	1.81%	77.14%	68.27%
±2σ	-3.40%	3.55%	94.75%	95.45%
±3σ	-5.14%	5.28%	98.65%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	0.071%
Standard Error	0.019%
中位数	0.022%
Mode	0.000%
Standard Deviation	1.737%
Sample Variance	3.018%
峰度	5.99
偏度	0.21
Range	28.848%
Minimum	-13.986%
Maximum	14.862%
Count	8522

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	1.273%	4305	50.52%	0.643%
负向	-1.219%	4002	46.96%	-0.572%
Zero	0.000%	215	2.52%	0.000%

Average True Range Percentage (ATRP)

Trading Days	Horizon	Average 日度 True Range %
5	1 Week	1.80%
20	1 Month	1.92%
60	1 Quarter	2.07%
250	1 Year	1.66%
750	3 Years	1.59%
1,250	5 Years	1.77%
2,500	10 Years	1.84%
5,000	20 Years	1.98%
12,500	50 Years	2.28%

高-to-低收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.89. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 15.73 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -2.15%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-2.15% to -1.08%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-1.08% to 0.00%	0	0.00%	0.00%
0.00% to 1.08%	1489	17.47%	17.47%
1.08% to 2.15%	3898	45.74%	63.21%
2.15% to 3.23%	1832	21.49%	84.70%
3.23% to 4.30%	707	8.30%	93.00%
4.30% to 5.38%	312	3.66%	96.66%
5.38% to 6.46%	138	1.62%	98.28%
Greater than 6.46%	147	1.72%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	0.72%	3.59%	85.40%	68.27%
±2σ	-0.72%	5.02%	95.94%	95.45%
±3σ	-2.15%	6.46%	98.28%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	2.152%
Standard Error	0.016%
中位数	1.761%
Mode	1.639%
Standard Deviation	1.435%
Sample Variance	2.058%
峰度	15.73
偏度	2.89
Range	19.065%
Minimum	0.327%
Maximum	19.392%
Count	8523

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	2.152%	8523	100.00%	2.152%
负向	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

开盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.02. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.01 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -4.59%	64	0.75%	0.75%
-4.59% to -3.46%	101	1.19%	1.94%
-3.46% to -2.33%	331	3.88%	5.82%
-2.33% to -1.19%	947	11.11%	16.93%
-1.19% to -0.06%	2717	31.88%	48.81%
-0.06% to 1.07%	2928	34.35%	83.16%
1.07% to 2.20%	969	11.37%	94.53%
2.20% to 3.33%	302	3.54%	98.08%
3.33% to 4.46%	107	1.26%	99.33%
Greater than 4.46%	57	0.67%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-1.57%	1.45%	76.90%	68.27%
±2σ	-3.08%	2.95%	94.52%	95.45%
±3σ	-4.59%	4.46%	98.58%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	-0.063%
Standard Error	0.016%
中位数	-0.026%
Mode	0.000%
Standard Deviation	1.508%
Sample Variance	2.275%
峰度	5.01
偏度	0.02
Range	24.502%
Minimum	-11.494%
Maximum	13.008%
Count	8523

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	1.074%	3958	46.44%	0.499%
负向	-1.105%	4331	50.81%	-0.562%
Zero	0.000%	234	2.75%	0.000%

收盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.13. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.06 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -10.75%	12	0.68%	0.68%
-10.75% to -7.98%	19	1.08%	1.76%
-7.98% to -5.21%	59	3.34%	5.10%
-5.21% to -2.43%	216	12.23%	17.33%
-2.43% to 0.34%	581	32.90%	50.23%
0.34% to 3.11%	574	32.50%	82.73%
3.11% to 5.88%	211	11.95%	94.68%
5.88% to 8.65%	64	3.62%	98.30%
8.65% to 11.43%	14	0.79%	99.09%
Greater than 11.43%	16	0.91%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-3.36%	4.03%	77.07%	68.27%
±2σ	-7.05%	7.73%	95.47%	95.45%
±3σ	-10.75%	11.43%	98.41%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	0.338%
Standard Error	0.088%
中位数	0.332%
Mode	0.000%
Standard Deviation	3.696%
Sample Variance	13.663%
峰度	7.06
偏度	0.13
Range	55.585%
Minimum	-29.513%
Maximum	26.072%
Count	1766

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	2.705%	956	54.13%	1.464%
负向	-2.501%	795	45.02%	-1.126%
Zero	0.000%	15	0.85%	0.000%

Average True Range Percentage (ATRP)

Weeks	Horizon	Average 周度 True Range %
4	1 Month	4.05%
12	1 Quarter	5.17%
52	1 Year	3.76%
156	3 Years	3.53%
260	5 Years	4.10%
520	10 Years	4.29%
1,040	20 Years	4.52%
2,600	50 Years	5.23%

高-to-低收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.05. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 17.66 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -5.14%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-5.14% to -2.51%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-2.51% to 0.11%	0	0.00%	0.00%
0.11% to 2.73%	316	17.88%	17.88%
2.73% to 5.35%	762	43.12%	61.01%
5.35% to 7.97%	428	24.22%	85.23%
7.97% to 10.60%	156	8.83%	94.06%
10.60% to 13.22%	49	2.77%	96.83%
13.22% to 15.84%	22	1.25%	98.08%
Greater than 15.84%	34	1.92%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	1.86%	8.85%	86.08%	68.27%
±2σ	-1.64%	12.34%	96.15%	95.45%
±3σ	-5.14%	15.84%	98.08%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	5.352%
Standard Error	0.083%
中位数	4.486%
Mode	3.846%
Standard Deviation	3.496%
Sample Variance	12.220%
峰度	17.66
偏度	3.05
Range	40.153%
Minimum	0.946%
Maximum	41.099%
Count	1767

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	5.352%	1767	100.00%	5.352%
负向	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

开盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.07. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 12.43 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -11.02%	11	0.62%	0.62%
-11.02% to -8.30%	15	0.85%	1.47%
-8.30% to -5.58%	54	3.06%	4.53%
-5.58% to -2.87%	231	13.07%	17.60%
-2.87% to -0.15%	609	34.47%	52.07%
-0.15% to 2.56%	555	31.41%	83.47%
2.56% to 5.28%	201	11.38%	94.85%
5.28% to 7.99%	51	2.89%	97.74%
7.99% to 10.71%	24	1.36%	99.09%
Greater than 10.71%	16	0.91%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-3.77%	3.47%	77.14%	68.27%
±2σ	-7.39%	7.09%	95.25%	95.45%
±3σ	-11.02%	10.71%	98.47%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	-0.153%
Standard Error	0.086%
中位数	-0.284%
Mode	0.000%
Standard Deviation	3.621%
Sample Variance	13.115%
峰度	12.43
偏度	1.07
Range	62.144%
Minimum	-21.073%
Maximum	41.071%
Count	1767

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	2.638%	790	44.71%	1.179%
负向	-2.476%	951	53.82%	-1.333%
Zero	0.000%	26	1.47%	0.000%

收盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.56. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.00 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -18.69%	3	0.74%	0.74%
-18.69% to -13.67%	3	0.74%	1.48%
-13.67% to -8.65%	13	3.20%	4.68%
-8.65% to -3.63%	58	14.29%	18.97%
-3.63% to 1.39%	126	31.03%	50.00%
1.39% to 6.40%	137	33.74%	83.74%
6.40% to 11.42%	42	10.34%	94.09%
11.42% to 16.44%	19	4.68%	98.77%
16.44% to 21.46%	1	0.25%	99.01%
Greater than 21.46%	4	0.99%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-5.31%	8.08%	76.35%	68.27%
±2σ	-12.00%	14.77%	95.07%	95.45%
±3σ	-18.69%	21.46%	98.28%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	1.385%
Standard Error	0.332%
中位数	1.363%
Mode	-4.589%
Standard Deviation	6.692%
Sample Variance	44.787%
峰度	5.00
偏度	0.56
Range	70.658%
Minimum	-27.157%
Maximum	43.501%
Count	406

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	5.260%	244	60.10%	3.161%
负向	-4.508%	160	39.41%	-1.777%
Zero	0.000%	2	0.49%	0.000%

Average True Range Percentage (ATRP)

Months	Horizon	Average 月度 True Range %
3	1 Quarter	9.27%
12	1 Year	7.91%
36	3 Years	7.72%
60	5 Years	9.01%
120	10 Years	9.29%
240	20 Years	9.37%
600	50 Years	10.78%

高-to-低收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.31. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.30 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -9.16%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-9.16% to -3.97%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-3.97% to 1.22%	0	0.00%	0.00%
1.22% to 6.40%	62	15.23%	15.23%
6.40% to 11.59%	200	49.14%	64.37%
11.59% to 16.77%	84	20.64%	85.01%
16.77% to 21.96%	38	9.34%	94.35%
21.96% to 27.15%	7	1.72%	96.07%
27.15% to 32.33%	6	1.47%	97.54%
Greater than 32.33%	10	2.46%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	4.67%	18.50%	84.52%	68.27%
±2σ	-2.24%	25.42%	95.33%	95.45%
±3σ	-9.16%	32.33%	97.54%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	11.589%
Standard Error	0.343%
中位数	9.322%
Mode	16.667%
Standard Deviation	6.915%
Sample Variance	47.819%
峰度	7.30
偏度	2.31
Range	46.456%
Minimum	2.504%
Maximum	48.960%
Count	407

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	11.589%	407	100.00%	11.589%
负向	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

开盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.58. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 4.45 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -20.55%	1	0.25%	0.25%
-20.55% to -15.61%	4	0.98%	1.23%
-15.61% to -10.68%	17	4.18%	5.41%
-10.68% to -5.75%	47	11.55%	16.95%
-5.75% to -0.82%	155	38.08%	55.04%
-0.82% to 4.11%	107	26.29%	81.33%
4.11% to 9.04%	53	13.02%	94.35%
9.04% to 13.97%	17	4.18%	98.53%
13.97% to 18.90%	2	0.49%	99.02%
Greater than 18.90%	4	0.98%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-7.40%	5.75%	76.41%	68.27%
±2σ	-13.97%	12.32%	95.58%	95.45%
±3σ	-20.55%	18.90%	98.77%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	-0.823%
Standard Error	0.326%
中位数	-1.206%
Mode	4.762%
Standard Deviation	6.574%
Sample Variance	43.224%
峰度	4.45
偏度	0.58
Range	67.624%
Minimum	-31.039%
Maximum	36.585%
Count	407

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	5.124%	160	39.31%	2.014%
负向	-4.714%	245	60.20%	-2.838%
Zero	0.000%	2	0.49%	0.000%

收盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.96. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 6.20 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -27.66%	1	0.74%	0.74%
-27.66% to -19.71%	1	0.74%	1.48%
-19.71% to -11.77%	4	2.96%	4.44%
-11.77% to -3.83%	16	11.85%	16.30%
-3.83% to 4.12%	46	34.07%	50.37%
4.12% to 12.06%	48	35.56%	85.93%
12.06% to 20.00%	13	9.63%	95.56%
20.00% to 27.95%	4	2.96%	98.52%
27.95% to 35.89%	1	0.74%	99.26%
Greater than 35.89%	1	0.74%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-6.47%	14.71%	77.78%	68.27%
±2σ	-17.06%	25.30%	94.81%	95.45%
±3σ	-27.65%	35.89%	98.52%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	4.118%
Standard Error	0.912%
中位数	4.114%
Mode	-1.855%
Standard Deviation	10.591%
Sample Variance	112.167%
峰度	6.20
偏度	0.96
Range	91.014%
Minimum	-30.197%
Maximum	60.817%
Count	135

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	8.838%	93	68.89%	6.088%
负向	-6.334%	42	31.11%	-1.971%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

Average True Range Percentage (ATRP)

Quarters	Horizon	Average 季度 True Range %
4	1 Year	14.27%
12	3 Years	13.13%
20	5 Years	14.36%
40	10 Years	15.42%
80	20 Years	15.60%
200	50 Years	18.07%

高-to-低收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.29. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.62 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -16.08%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-16.08% to -6.98%	0	0.00%	0.00%
-6.98% to 2.13%	0	0.00%	0.00%
2.13% to 11.23%	24	17.65%	17.65%
11.23% to 20.34%	65	47.79%	65.44%
20.34% to 29.45%	27	19.85%	85.29%
29.45% to 38.55%	9	6.62%	91.91%
38.55% to 47.66%	6	4.41%	96.32%
47.66% to 56.76%	2	1.47%	97.79%
Greater than 56.76%	3	2.21%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	8.20%	32.48%	83.82%	68.27%
±2σ	-3.94%	44.62%	96.32%	95.45%
±3σ	-16.08%	56.76%	97.79%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	20.339%
Standard Error	1.041%
中位数	16.787%
Mode	5.319%
Standard Deviation	12.141%
Sample Variance	147.411%
峰度	7.62
偏度	2.29
Range	82.221%
Minimum	5.319%
Maximum	87.540%
Count	136

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	20.339%	136	100.00%	20.339%
负向	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

开盘-to-收盘收益

Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.77. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 4.13 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).

Bin Distribution Over Raw Range

Bin / Range	频率	Prob	Cum. Prob
Less than -31.95%	1	0.74%	0.74%
-31.95% to -24.57%	1	0.74%	1.47%
-24.57% to -17.19%	4	2.94%	4.41%
-17.19% to -9.81%	18	13.24%	17.65%
-9.81% to -2.43%	50	36.76%	54.41%
-2.43% to 4.95%	42	30.88%	85.29%
4.95% to 12.33%	12	8.82%	94.12%
12.33% to 19.71%	4	2.94%	97.06%
19.71% to 27.09%	3	2.21%	99.26%
Greater than 27.09%	1	0.74%	100.00%

Standard Deviation Interval Analysis

SD	低er Bnd	Upper Bnd	Actual %	Normal %
±1σ	-12.27%	7.41%	77.21%	68.27%
±2σ	-22.11%	17.25%	95.59%	95.45%
±3σ	-31.95%	27.09%	98.53%	99.73%

Descriptive Statistics

均值	-2.430%
Standard Error	0.844%
中位数	-3.274%
Mode	-37.198%
Standard Deviation	9.840%
Sample Variance	96.835%
峰度	4.13
偏度	0.77
Range	80.329%
Minimum	-37.198%
Maximum	43.131%
Count	136

频率 Breakdown

分类	Avg 收益	Count	概率	Freq Adj 收益
正向	7.290%	47	34.56%	2.519%
负向	-7.563%	89	65.44%	-4.949%
Zero	0.000%	0	0.00%	0.000%

LIN 深度分析报告