MTN 深度分析报告

Vail Resorts, Inc. | 分类: Equity Mid Cap | 年化股息率: 7.19% ($8.88) | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 1997-02-01 → 2026-04-01 (351 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 2.33% 2.10% 2.13% 2.80% 3.18% 3.56% 115.30 122.86 111.69 126.83
周度 5.00% 5.22% 5.03% 6.44% 6.99% 7.85% 110.98 127.64 103.48 136.89
月度 9.30% 11.69% 9.64% 13.00% 14.56% 16.33% 102.89 137.67 88.95 159.25
季度 13.74% 19.99% 14.04% 21.20% 25.22% 28.29% 92.49 153.16 71.87 197.09
Annual 50.44% 56.58% 71.87 197.09 43.40 326.38
Option Time Horizon 19.22% 21.56% 98.21 144.24 81.04 174.81
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:46 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $119.02  |  Strike (K): $135.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $3.6500 (Bid $2.5000 / Ask $4.8000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 7.19%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 50.44% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 51.09% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 56.58% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-03-26 $2.2200
2025-12-30 $2.2200
2025-10-09 $2.2200
2025-06-24 $2.2200
2025-03-27 $2.2200
2024-12-26 $2.2200
2024-10-08 $2.2200
2024-06-25 $2.2200
2024-03-27 $2.2200
2023-12-22 $2.0600
2023-10-06 $2.0600
2023-06-26 $2.0600
2023-03-24 $2.0600
2022-12-23 $1.9100
2022-10-04 $1.9100
2022-06-24 $1.9100
2022-03-29 $1.9100
2021-12-27 $0.8800
2021-10-04 $0.8800
2020-03-25 $1.7600
2019-12-24 $1.7600
2019-10-07 $1.7600
2019-06-25 $1.7600
2019-03-26 $1.7600
2018-12-26 $1.4700
2018-10-05 $1.4700
2018-06-26 $1.4700
2018-03-26 $1.4700
2017-12-26 $1.0530
2017-10-06 $1.0530
2017-06-26 $1.0530
2017-03-27 $1.0530
2016-12-23 $0.8100
2016-10-05 $0.8100
2016-06-24 $0.8100
2016-03-24 $0.8100
2015-12-23 $0.6230
2015-10-07 $0.6230
2015-06-23 $0.6230
2015-03-27 $0.6230
2014-12-24 $0.4150
2014-10-03 $0.4150
2014-06-19 $0.4150
2014-03-28 $0.4150
2013-12-23 $0.2080
2013-10-07 $0.2070
2013-06-20 $0.2070
2013-03-21 $0.2070
2012-12-17 $0.1880
2012-10-05 $0.1880
2012-06-21 $0.1880
2012-03-22 $0.1880
2011-12-20 $0.1500
2011-10-07 $0.1500
2011-06-29 $0.1500
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.27. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.12 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -6.93%530.72%0.72%
-6.93% to -5.18%821.12%1.84%
-5.18% to -3.44%2152.93%4.76%
-3.44% to -1.69%79610.83%15.59%
-1.69% to 0.06%264135.93%51.52%
0.06% to 1.80%242933.05%84.57%
1.80% to 3.55%76710.44%95.01%
3.55% to 5.29%2032.76%97.77%
5.29% to 7.04%891.21%98.98%
Greater than 7.04%751.02%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.27%2.38% 79.36%68.27%
±2σ -4.60%4.71% 94.79%95.45%
±3σ -6.93%7.04% 98.26%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.49. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 21.23 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -3.48%00.00%0.00%
-3.48% to -1.91%00.00%0.00%
-1.91% to -0.34%00.00%0.00%
-0.34% to 1.24%92612.60%12.60%
1.24% to 2.81%381651.91%64.51%
2.81% to 4.38%161621.98%86.49%
4.38% to 5.96%5397.33%93.82%
5.96% to 7.53%2142.91%96.74%
7.53% to 9.10%1031.40%98.14%
Greater than 9.10%1371.86%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.71%4.91% 87.89%68.27%
±2σ -1.38%7.00% 96.00%95.45%
±3σ -3.48%9.10% 98.14%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.21. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.67 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -6.39%650.88%0.88%
-6.39% to -4.79%751.02%1.90%
-4.79% to -3.19%2182.97%4.87%
-3.19% to -1.59%80810.99%15.86%
-1.59% to 0.01%259835.34%51.20%
0.01% to 1.61%240532.72%83.92%
1.61% to 3.21%81811.13%95.05%
3.21% to 4.82%2323.16%98.20%
4.82% to 6.42%741.01%99.21%
Greater than 6.42%580.79%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.12%2.15% 78.64%68.27%
±2σ -4.25%4.28% 95.28%95.45%
±3σ -6.39%6.42% 98.33%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.23. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.85 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -14.73%120.79%0.79%
-14.73% to -10.98%191.25%2.03%
-10.98% to -7.23%533.48%5.51%
-7.23% to -3.48%17011.15%16.67%
-3.48% to 0.27%51433.73%50.39%
0.27% to 4.01%50232.94%83.33%
4.01% to 7.76%16310.70%94.03%
7.76% to 11.51%603.94%97.97%
11.51% to 15.26%171.12%99.08%
Greater than 15.26%140.92%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -4.73%5.26% 76.64%68.27%
±2σ -9.73%10.26% 94.42%95.45%
±3σ -14.73%15.26% 98.29%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.07. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 14.60 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -8.47%00.00%0.00%
-8.47% to -4.56%00.00%0.00%
-4.56% to -0.64%00.00%0.00%
-0.64% to 3.27%19812.98%12.98%
3.27% to 7.19%81253.25%66.23%
7.19% to 11.10%30019.67%85.90%
11.10% to 15.02%1127.34%93.25%
15.02% to 18.93%503.28%96.52%
18.93% to 22.85%231.51%98.03%
Greater than 22.85%301.97%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.97%12.41% 88.39%68.27%
±2σ -3.25%17.63% 95.54%95.45%
±3σ -8.48%22.85% 98.03%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.68. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 4.99 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -15.04%60.39%0.39%
-15.04% to -11.27%201.31%1.70%
-11.27% to -7.50%583.80%5.51%
-7.50% to -3.73%16811.02%16.52%
-3.73% to 0.04%54936.00%52.52%
0.04% to 3.81%48031.48%84.00%
3.81% to 7.58%15810.36%94.36%
7.58% to 11.35%493.21%97.57%
11.35% to 15.12%191.25%98.82%
Greater than 15.12%181.18%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -4.98%5.07% 78.23%68.27%
±2σ -10.01%10.10% 94.69%95.45%
±3σ -15.04%15.12% 98.43%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.18. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.43 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -26.88%30.86%0.86%
-26.88% to -19.90%30.86%1.71%
-19.90% to -12.93%113.14%4.86%
-12.93% to -5.95%4613.14%18.00%
-5.95% to 1.02%11633.14%51.14%
1.02% to 8.00%10229.14%80.29%
8.00% to 14.98%4713.43%93.71%
14.98% to 21.95%154.29%98.00%
21.95% to 28.93%41.14%99.14%
Greater than 28.93%30.86%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.28%10.32% 75.43%68.27%
±2σ -17.58%19.63% 95.43%95.45%
±3σ -26.88%28.93% 98.29%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.97. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 26.30 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -18.82%00.00%0.00%
-18.82% to -10.05%00.00%0.00%
-10.05% to -1.28%00.00%0.00%
-1.28% to 7.48%339.40%9.40%
7.48% to 16.25%20157.26%66.67%
16.25% to 25.02%7621.65%88.32%
25.02% to 33.79%226.27%94.59%
33.79% to 42.55%71.99%96.58%
42.55% to 51.32%51.42%98.01%
Greater than 51.32%71.99%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 4.56%27.94% 91.17%68.27%
±2σ -7.13%39.63% 96.01%95.45%
±3σ -18.82%51.32% 98.01%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.15. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.17 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -28.85%10.28%0.28%
-28.85% to -21.62%30.85%1.14%
-21.62% to -14.39%102.85%3.99%
-14.39% to -7.16%5415.38%19.37%
-7.16% to 0.07%11532.76%52.14%
0.07% to 7.29%11231.91%84.05%
7.29% to 14.52%3610.26%94.30%
14.52% to 21.75%133.70%98.01%
21.75% to 28.98%30.85%98.86%
Greater than 28.98%41.14%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -9.57%9.70% 76.64%68.27%
±2σ -19.21%19.34% 95.44%95.45%
±3σ -28.85%28.98% 98.58%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of -0.10. Further, an Excess 峰度 of -0.54 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -38.43%00.00%0.00%
-38.43% to -28.12%10.86%0.86%
-28.12% to -17.82%65.17%6.03%
-17.82% to -7.51%2118.10%24.14%
-7.51% to 2.80%3025.86%50.00%
2.80% to 13.10%2824.14%74.14%
13.10% to 23.41%2521.55%95.69%
23.41% to 33.72%43.45%99.14%
33.72% to 44.02%10.86%100.00%
Greater than 44.02%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -10.95%16.54% 68.97%68.27%
±2σ -24.69%30.28% 95.69%95.45%
±3σ -38.43%44.02% 100.00%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.67. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 8.57 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -29.65%00.00%0.00%
-29.65% to -14.65%00.00%0.00%
-14.65% to 0.34%00.00%0.00%
0.34% to 15.34%1613.68%13.68%
15.34% to 30.33%6152.14%65.81%
30.33% to 45.33%2521.37%87.18%
45.33% to 60.33%97.69%94.87%
60.33% to 75.32%10.85%95.73%
75.32% to 90.32%10.85%96.58%
Greater than 90.32%43.42%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 10.34%50.33% 90.60%68.27%
±2σ -9.65%70.32% 94.87%95.45%
±3σ -29.65%90.32% 96.58%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.70. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 0.26 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -42.47%00.00%0.00%
-42.47% to -31.94%00.00%0.00%
-31.94% to -21.41%32.56%2.56%
-21.41% to -10.88%2924.79%27.35%
-10.88% to -0.35%3126.50%53.85%
-0.35% to 10.18%3025.64%79.49%
10.18% to 20.71%1512.82%92.31%
20.71% to 31.23%54.27%96.58%
31.23% to 41.76%32.56%99.15%
Greater than 41.76%10.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -14.39%13.69% 68.38%68.27%
±2σ -28.43%27.73% 96.58%95.45%
±3σ -42.47%41.76% 99.15%99.73%