MU 深度分析报告

Micron Technology, Inc. | 分类: Equity Mega Cap | 年化股息率: 0.10% ($0.49) | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 1984-06-01 → 2026-04-01 (503 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 3.80% 3.07% 3.35% 4.13% 4.97% 4.98% 472.64 522.03 449.72 548.63
周度 8.57% 7.97% 8.59% 10.19% 10.94% 10.96% 445.24 554.15 399.10 618.22
月度 17.34% 20.29% 17.98% 22.87% 22.77% 22.81% 395.55 623.76 314.99 783.30
季度 34.44% 39.81% 34.29% 43.65% 39.45% 39.51% 334.81 736.93 225.67 1093.30
Annual 78.89% 79.02% 225.67 1093.30 102.53 2406.42
Option Time Horizon 30.06% 30.11% 367.75 670.92 272.26 906.22
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:45 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $496.72  |  Strike (K): $500.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $58.5750 (Bid $58.0000 / Ask $59.1500)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.10%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 78.89% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 78.27% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 79.02% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-03-30 $0.1500
2025-12-29 $0.1150
2025-10-03 $0.1150
2025-07-07 $0.1150
2025-03-31 $0.1150
2024-12-30 $0.1150
2024-10-07 $0.1150
2024-07-08 $0.1150
2024-03-28 $0.1150
2023-12-29 $0.1150
2023-10-06 $0.1150
2023-07-07 $0.1150
2023-04-06 $0.1150
2022-12-30 $0.1150
2022-10-07 $0.1150
2022-07-08 $0.1150
2022-04-08 $0.1000
2021-12-31 $0.1000
2021-09-30 $0.1000
1996-05-07 $0.0250
1995-12-26 $0.0250
1995-11-08 $0.0250
1995-08-09 $0.0250
1995-05-30 $0.0250
1995-03-30 $0.0250
1994-12-29 $0.0125
1994-09-26 $0.0125
1994-07-19 $0.0125
1994-04-26 $0.0125
1993-11-26 $0.0050
1992-11-27 $0.0050
1991-11-22 $0.0050
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.13. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.46 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.28%660.63%0.63%
-11.28% to -8.43%960.91%1.53%
-8.43% to -5.58%3613.42%4.96%
-5.58% to -2.72%141613.42%18.37%
-2.72% to 0.13%361834.28%52.65%
0.13% to 2.98%310429.41%82.06%
2.98% to 5.83%126712.00%94.07%
5.83% to 8.68%3993.78%97.85%
8.68% to 11.53%1431.35%99.20%
Greater than 11.53%840.80%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.67%3.93% 75.57%68.27%
±2σ -7.48%7.73% 94.61%95.45%
±3σ -11.28%11.53% 98.58%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.61. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 12.72 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.43%00.00%0.00%
-4.43% to -2.12%00.00%0.00%
-2.12% to 0.18%00.00%0.00%
0.18% to 2.49%185117.54%17.54%
2.49% to 4.79%479245.40%62.94%
4.79% to 7.10%222121.04%83.98%
7.10% to 9.40%9669.15%93.13%
9.40% to 11.71%3763.56%96.69%
11.71% to 14.02%1561.48%98.17%
Greater than 14.02%1931.83%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.72%7.87% 83.19%68.27%
±2σ -1.35%10.94% 95.85%95.45%
±3σ -4.43%14.02% 98.17%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.45. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.62 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -9.92%610.58%0.58%
-9.92% to -7.41%1201.14%1.71%
-7.41% to -4.89%4103.88%5.60%
-4.89% to -2.38%125911.93%17.53%
-2.38% to 0.14%358833.99%51.52%
0.14% to 2.65%327931.07%82.59%
2.65% to 5.17%125111.85%94.44%
5.17% to 7.68%3963.75%98.19%
7.68% to 10.20%1151.09%99.28%
Greater than 10.20%760.72%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.22%3.49% 76.49%68.27%
±2σ -6.57%6.84% 94.63%95.45%
±3σ -9.92%10.20% 98.70%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.25. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.63 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -25.07%70.32%0.32%
-25.07% to -18.65%301.37%1.69%
-18.65% to -12.22%853.89%5.58%
-12.22% to -5.79%28012.81%18.39%
-5.79% to 0.64%71632.75%51.14%
0.64% to 7.07%65029.73%80.88%
7.07% to 13.49%28212.90%93.78%
13.49% to 19.92%1004.57%98.35%
19.92% to 26.35%221.01%99.36%
Greater than 26.35%140.64%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.93%9.21% 74.79%68.27%
±2σ -16.50%17.78% 94.88%95.45%
±3σ -25.07%26.35% 99.04%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.45. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 10.50 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.12%00.00%0.00%
-11.12% to -5.14%00.00%0.00%
-5.14% to 0.84%00.00%0.00%
0.84% to 6.83%41518.98%18.98%
6.83% to 12.81%92542.30%61.27%
12.81% to 18.79%51723.64%84.91%
18.79% to 24.77%1707.77%92.68%
24.77% to 30.75%823.75%96.43%
30.75% to 36.73%381.74%98.17%
Greater than 36.73%401.83%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 4.83%20.78% 82.81%68.27%
±2σ -3.14%28.76% 95.52%95.45%
±3σ -11.12%36.73% 98.17%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 1.00. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.11 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -25.52%70.32%0.32%
-25.52% to -19.08%130.59%0.91%
-19.08% to -12.63%873.98%4.89%
-12.63% to -6.19%30914.13%19.02%
-6.19% to 0.25%75134.34%53.36%
0.25% to 6.70%65529.95%83.31%
6.70% to 13.14%23410.70%94.01%
13.14% to 19.59%773.52%97.53%
19.59% to 26.03%271.23%98.77%
Greater than 26.03%271.23%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.34%8.85% 75.90%68.27%
±2σ -16.93%17.44% 95.06%95.45%
±3σ -25.52%26.03% 98.45%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.62. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.53 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -49.50%20.40%0.40%
-49.50% to -36.50%30.60%1.00%
-36.50% to -23.49%214.18%5.18%
-23.49% to -10.49%8015.94%21.12%
-10.49% to 2.52%15731.27%52.39%
2.52% to 15.52%14428.69%81.08%
15.52% to 28.52%6212.35%93.43%
28.52% to 41.53%244.78%98.21%
41.53% to 54.53%61.20%99.40%
Greater than 54.53%30.60%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -14.82%19.85% 72.11%68.27%
±2σ -32.16%37.19% 95.62%95.45%
±3σ -49.50%54.53% 99.00%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 4.06. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 28.78 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -30.23%00.00%0.00%
-30.23% to -15.01%00.00%0.00%
-15.01% to 0.20%00.00%0.00%
0.20% to 15.42%7815.51%15.51%
15.42% to 30.63%22945.53%61.03%
30.63% to 45.85%12925.65%86.68%
45.85% to 61.07%407.95%94.63%
61.07% to 76.28%163.18%97.81%
76.28% to 91.50%40.80%98.61%
Greater than 91.50%71.39%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 10.35%50.92% 88.67%68.27%
±2σ -9.94%71.21% 96.82%95.45%
±3σ -30.23%91.50% 98.61%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.30. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 4.92 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -53.27%00.00%0.00%
-53.27% to -39.79%30.60%0.60%
-39.79% to -26.31%132.58%3.18%
-26.31% to -12.82%8416.70%19.88%
-12.82% to 0.66%17434.59%54.47%
0.66% to 14.14%13927.63%82.11%
14.14% to 27.62%5611.13%93.24%
27.62% to 41.11%244.77%98.01%
41.11% to 54.59%30.60%98.61%
Greater than 54.59%71.39%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -17.32%18.64% 74.95%68.27%
±2σ -35.30%36.61% 96.02%95.45%
±3σ -53.27%54.59% 98.61%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.12. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.72 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -94.87%00.00%0.00%
-94.87% to -69.05%00.00%0.00%
-69.05% to -43.22%105.99%5.99%
-43.22% to -17.39%2011.98%17.96%
-17.39% to 8.44%6438.32%56.29%
8.44% to 34.27%4627.54%83.83%
34.27% to 60.10%169.58%93.41%
60.10% to 85.93%52.99%96.41%
85.93% to 111.76%42.40%98.80%
Greater than 111.76%21.20%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -26.00%42.88% 76.65%68.27%
±2σ -60.44%77.32% 95.21%95.45%
±3σ -94.87%111.76% 98.80%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.66. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.44 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -56.18%00.00%0.00%
-56.18% to -26.32%00.00%0.00%
-26.32% to 3.54%00.00%0.00%
3.54% to 33.40%4124.40%24.40%
33.40% to 63.26%6236.90%61.31%
63.26% to 93.12%3520.83%82.14%
93.12% to 122.98%127.14%89.29%
122.98% to 152.85%137.74%97.02%
152.85% to 182.71%21.19%98.21%
Greater than 182.71%31.79%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 23.45%103.08% 81.55%68.27%
±2σ -16.36%142.89% 95.83%95.45%
±3σ -56.18%182.71% 98.21%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.39. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.62 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -100.99%00.00%0.00%
-100.99% to -75.27%00.00%0.00%
-75.27% to -49.56%42.38%2.38%
-49.56% to -23.84%2816.67%19.05%
-23.84% to 1.88%6739.88%58.93%
1.88% to 27.59%4325.60%84.52%
27.59% to 53.31%127.14%91.67%
53.31% to 79.02%52.98%94.64%
79.02% to 104.74%52.98%97.62%
Greater than 104.74%42.38%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -32.41%36.16% 77.98%68.27%
±2σ -66.70%70.45% 94.05%95.45%
±3σ -100.99%104.74% 97.62%99.73%