NVDA 深度分析报告

NVIDIA Corporation | 分类: Equity Mega Cap | 年化股息率: 0.02% ($0.04) | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 1999-01-01 → 2026-04-01 (328 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 3.74% 3.20% 3.14% 4.22% 2.60% 2.68% 202.92 213.76 197.71 219.40
周度 9.38% 9.27% 8.61% 10.36% 5.73% 5.90% 196.68 220.55 185.73 233.55
月度 17.37% 21.15% 17.18% 23.36% 11.92% 12.29% 184.86 234.65 164.08 264.36
季度 30.87% 45.28% 32.71% 45.16% 20.65% 21.29% 169.41 256.05 137.80 314.79
Annual 41.31% 42.57% 137.80 314.79 91.17 475.78
Option Time Horizon 15.74% 16.22% 177.94 243.77 152.02 285.33
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:43 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $208.27  |  Strike (K): $210.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $12.7500 (Bid $12.7000 / Ask $12.8000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.02%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 41.31% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 41.22% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 42.57% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-03-11 $0.0100
2025-12-04 $0.0100
2025-09-11 $0.0100
2025-06-11 $0.0100
2025-03-12 $0.0100
2024-12-05 $0.0100
2024-09-12 $0.0100
2024-06-11 $0.0100
2024-03-05 $0.0040
2023-12-05 $0.0040
2023-09-06 $0.0040
2023-06-07 $0.0040
2023-03-07 $0.0040
2022-11-30 $0.0040
2022-09-07 $0.0040
2022-06-08 $0.0040
2022-03-02 $0.0040
2021-12-01 $0.0040
2021-08-31 $0.0040
2021-06-09 $0.0040
2021-03-09 $0.0040
2020-12-03 $0.0040
2020-09-01 $0.0040
2020-06-04 $0.0040
2020-02-27 $0.0040
2019-11-27 $0.0040
2019-08-28 $0.0040
2019-05-30 $0.0040
2019-02-28 $0.0040
2018-11-29 $0.0040
2018-08-29 $0.0037
2018-05-23 $0.0037
2018-02-22 $0.0037
2017-11-22 $0.0037
2017-08-22 $0.0035
2017-05-19 $0.0035
2017-02-22 $0.0035
2016-11-23 $0.0035
2016-08-23 $0.0029
2016-05-24 $0.0029
2016-02-29 $0.0029
2015-11-18 $0.0029
2015-08-18 $0.0024
2015-05-19 $0.0024
2015-02-24 $0.0021
2014-11-19 $0.0021
2014-08-19 $0.0021
2014-05-20 $0.0021
2014-02-25 $0.0021
2013-11-19 $0.0021
2013-08-20 $0.0019
2013-05-21 $0.0019
2013-02-26 $0.0019
2012-11-20 $0.0019
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.60. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 11.44 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.03%290.42%0.42%
-11.03% to -8.22%701.02%1.44%
-8.22% to -5.42%2303.36%4.80%
-5.42% to -2.61%78611.47%16.27%
-2.61% to 0.20%238934.85%51.12%
0.20% to 3.00%230933.68%84.80%
3.00% to 5.81%70310.26%95.05%
5.81% to 8.61%2042.98%98.03%
8.61% to 11.42%791.15%99.18%
Greater than 11.42%560.82%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.55%3.94% 78.92%68.27%
±2σ -7.29%7.68% 95.14%95.45%
±3σ -11.03%11.42% 98.76%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.31. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 21.19 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -5.22%00.00%0.00%
-5.22% to -2.83%00.00%0.00%
-2.83% to -0.43%00.00%0.00%
-0.43% to 1.97%103015.02%15.02%
1.97% to 4.37%341349.78%64.80%
4.37% to 6.77%142120.73%85.53%
6.77% to 9.17%5317.75%93.28%
9.17% to 11.57%2283.33%96.60%
11.57% to 13.96%1041.52%98.12%
Greater than 13.96%1291.88%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.17%7.57% 87.37%68.27%
±2σ -2.03%10.77% 95.70%95.45%
±3σ -5.22%13.96% 98.12%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.12. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 6.88 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -9.35%540.79%0.79%
-9.35% to -7.00%751.09%1.88%
-7.00% to -4.65%2073.02%4.90%
-4.65% to -2.29%77111.25%16.15%
-2.29% to 0.06%241735.25%51.40%
0.06% to 2.41%220132.10%83.50%
2.41% to 4.76%72610.59%94.09%
4.76% to 7.11%2593.78%97.87%
7.11% to 9.47%871.27%99.14%
Greater than 9.47%590.86%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.08%3.19% 77.52%68.27%
±2σ -6.21%6.33% 94.41%95.45%
±3σ -9.35%9.47% 98.35%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.33. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 53.17 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.13%50.35%0.35%
-27.13% to -20.10%120.84%1.20%
-20.10% to -13.07%372.60%3.80%
-13.07% to -6.03%16211.39%15.19%
-6.03% to 1.00%52336.78%51.97%
1.00% to 8.03%48634.18%86.15%
8.03% to 15.06%1379.63%95.78%
15.06% to 22.09%362.53%98.31%
22.09% to 29.13%110.77%99.09%
Greater than 29.13%130.91%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.38%10.37% 79.96%68.27%
±2σ -17.75%19.75% 95.78%95.45%
±3σ -27.13%29.13% 98.73%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.62. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 23.09 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -15.95%00.00%0.00%
-15.95% to -9.00%00.00%0.00%
-9.00% to -2.05%00.00%0.00%
-2.05% to 4.91%18012.65%12.65%
4.91% to 11.86%73851.86%64.51%
11.86% to 18.81%31121.86%86.37%
18.81% to 25.76%1047.31%93.68%
25.76% to 32.72%453.16%96.84%
32.72% to 39.67%201.41%98.24%
Greater than 39.67%251.76%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 2.59%21.13% 88.97%68.27%
±2σ -6.68%30.40% 96.21%95.45%
±3σ -15.95%39.67% 98.24%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.24. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 9.47 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -25.89%50.35%0.35%
-25.89% to -19.43%130.91%1.26%
-19.43% to -12.97%392.74%4.01%
-12.97% to -6.51%16911.88%15.88%
-6.51% to -0.06%55238.79%54.67%
-0.06% to 6.40%42730.01%84.68%
6.40% to 12.86%1389.70%94.38%
12.86% to 19.32%493.44%97.82%
19.32% to 25.78%161.12%98.95%
Greater than 25.78%151.05%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.67%8.56% 78.14%68.27%
±2σ -17.28%17.17% 95.43%95.45%
±3σ -25.89%25.78% 98.59%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.62. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.18 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -48.00%10.31%0.31%
-48.00% to -34.97%30.92%1.22%
-34.97% to -21.94%144.28%5.50%
-21.94% to -8.92%4714.37%19.88%
-8.92% to 4.11%11033.64%53.52%
4.11% to 17.13%9529.05%82.57%
17.13% to 30.16%3711.31%93.88%
30.16% to 43.19%123.67%97.55%
43.19% to 56.21%41.22%98.78%
Greater than 56.21%41.22%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -13.26%21.48% 73.70%68.27%
±2σ -30.63%38.84% 94.19%95.45%
±3σ -48.00%56.21% 98.47%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.40. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 7.98 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -34.59%00.00%0.00%
-34.59% to -18.73%00.00%0.00%
-18.73% to -2.86%00.00%0.00%
-2.86% to 13.00%5316.16%16.16%
13.00% to 28.86%15848.17%64.33%
28.86% to 44.72%6921.04%85.37%
44.72% to 60.58%237.01%92.38%
60.58% to 76.44%123.66%96.04%
76.44% to 92.30%51.52%97.56%
Greater than 92.30%82.44%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 7.71%50.01% 86.28%68.27%
±2σ -13.44%71.15% 95.43%95.45%
±3σ -34.59%92.30% 97.56%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.09. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.28 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -52.48%00.00%0.00%
-52.48% to -39.59%20.61%0.61%
-39.59% to -26.71%103.05%3.66%
-26.71% to -13.82%4914.94%18.60%
-13.82% to -0.93%12237.20%55.79%
-0.93% to 11.96%8927.13%82.93%
11.96% to 24.84%329.76%92.68%
24.84% to 37.73%154.57%97.26%
37.73% to 50.62%41.22%98.48%
Greater than 50.62%51.52%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -18.11%16.25% 74.39%68.27%
±2σ -35.30%33.44% 94.51%95.45%
±3σ -52.48%50.62% 98.48%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.75. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.20 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -80.11%00.00%0.00%
-80.11% to -56.96%10.92%0.92%
-56.96% to -33.81%32.75%3.67%
-33.81% to -10.65%1715.60%19.27%
-10.65% to 12.50%3834.86%54.13%
12.50% to 35.65%2926.61%80.73%
35.65% to 58.80%1412.84%93.58%
58.80% to 81.95%54.59%98.17%
81.95% to 105.11%10.92%99.08%
Greater than 105.11%10.92%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -18.37%43.37% 74.31%68.27%
±2σ -49.24%74.24% 97.25%95.45%
±3σ -80.11%105.11% 99.08%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.11. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 13.66 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -77.40%00.00%0.00%
-77.40% to -43.44%00.00%0.00%
-43.44% to -9.48%00.00%0.00%
-9.48% to 24.48%1412.73%12.73%
24.48% to 58.44%5146.36%59.09%
58.44% to 92.41%3330.00%89.09%
92.41% to 126.37%65.45%94.55%
126.37% to 160.33%32.73%97.27%
160.33% to 194.29%10.91%98.18%
Greater than 194.29%21.82%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 13.16%103.72% 89.09%68.27%
±2σ -32.12%149.01% 97.27%95.45%
±3σ -77.40%194.29% 98.18%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.96. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 15.98 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -101.20%00.00%0.00%
-101.20% to -76.67%00.00%0.00%
-76.67% to -52.14%10.91%0.91%
-52.14% to -27.61%1816.36%17.27%
-27.61% to -3.08%4540.91%58.18%
-3.08% to 21.45%3430.91%89.09%
21.45% to 45.98%65.45%94.55%
45.98% to 70.51%21.82%96.36%
70.51% to 95.05%32.73%99.09%
Greater than 95.05%10.91%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -35.79%29.63% 81.82%68.27%
±2σ -68.49%62.34% 96.36%95.45%
±3σ -101.20%95.05% 99.09%99.73%