PM Deep Analytical Report

Philip Morris International Inc. | Category: Equity Mega Cap | Ann. Div Yield: 3.46% ($5.64) | Last Updated: 2026-03-24 | Data Range: 2008-03-01 → 2026-03-01 (217 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 1.48% 1.38% 1.26% 1.86% 2.33% 2.37% 159.82 167.46 156.14 171.41
Weekly 3.23% 3.14% 3.27% 4.51% 5.13% 5.22% 155.41 172.21 147.63 181.29
Monthly 6.53% 6.68% 6.73% 9.86% 10.69% 10.87% 147.01 182.05 132.11 202.58
Quarterly 10.65% 10.48% 10.03% 17.63% 18.51% 18.83% 135.95 196.86 112.98 236.89
Annual 37.02% 37.65% 112.98 236.89 78.02 343.03
Option Time Horizon 13.97% 14.21% 142.26 188.13 123.71 216.34
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-03-23T16:32 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-05-15 (52 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $163.60  |  Strike (K): $165.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $8.4500 (Bid $8.1000 / Ask $8.8000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.73% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 3.46%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 37.02% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 37.01% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 37.65% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-03-19 $1.4700
2025-12-26 $1.4700
2025-10-03 $1.4700
2025-06-27 $1.3500
2025-03-20 $1.3500
2024-12-26 $1.3500
2024-09-26 $1.3500
2024-06-21 $1.3000
2024-03-20 $1.3000
2023-12-20 $1.3000
2023-09-26 $1.3000
2023-06-22 $1.2700
2023-03-22 $1.2700
2022-12-21 $1.2700
2022-09-27 $1.2700
2022-06-30 $1.2500
2022-03-23 $1.2500
2021-12-22 $1.2500
2021-09-28 $1.2500
2021-06-24 $1.2000
2021-03-19 $1.2000
2020-12-22 $1.2000
2020-09-23 $1.2000
2020-06-19 $1.1700
2020-03-20 $1.1700
2019-12-18 $1.1700
2019-09-24 $1.1700
2019-06-20 $1.1400
2019-03-25 $1.1400
2018-12-19 $1.1400
2018-09-25 $1.1400
2018-06-21 $1.1400
2018-03-21 $1.0700
2017-12-20 $1.0700
2017-09-26 $1.0700
2017-06-21 $1.0400
2017-03-21 $1.0400
2016-12-20 $1.0400
2016-09-26 $1.0400
2016-06-21 $1.0200
2016-03-22 $1.0200
2015-12-21 $1.0200
2015-09-28 $1.0200
2015-06-23 $1.0000
2015-03-24 $1.0000
2014-12-22 $1.0000
2014-09-23 $1.0000
2014-06-24 $0.9400
2014-03-25 $0.9400
2013-12-23 $0.9400
2013-09-24 $0.9400
2013-06-25 $0.8500
2013-03-26 $0.8500
2012-12-24 $0.0850
2012-12-20 $0.0390
2012-09-25 $0.8500
2012-06-25 $0.7700
2012-03-27 $0.7700
2011-12-20 $0.7700
2011-09-23 $0.7700
2011-06-21 $0.6400
2011-03-22 $0.6400
2010-12-21 $0.6400
2010-09-22 $0.6400
2010-06-22 $0.5800
2010-03-23 $0.5800
2009-12-23 $0.5800
2009-09-24 $0.5800
2009-06-22 $0.5400
2009-03-23 $0.5400
2008-12-23 $0.5400
2008-09-11 $0.5400
2008-06-26 $0.4600
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.41. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 12.11 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.37%350.77%0.77%
-4.37% to -3.26%461.02%1.79%
-3.26% to -2.16%1272.80%4.59%
-2.16% to -1.05%48710.75%15.34%
-1.05% to 0.06%154734.14%49.47%
0.06% to 1.16%156534.53%84.00%
1.16% to 2.27%52711.63%95.63%
2.27% to 3.38%1312.89%98.52%
3.38% to 4.48%420.93%99.45%
Greater than 4.48%250.55%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.42%1.53% 79.28%68.27%
±2σ -2.89%3.01% 95.39%95.45%
±3σ -4.37%4.48% 98.68%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 6.75. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 102.36 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -2.29%00.00%0.00%
-2.29% to -1.25%00.00%0.00%
-1.25% to -0.22%00.00%0.00%
-0.22% to 0.81%3287.24%7.24%
0.81% to 1.85%261557.69%64.92%
1.85% to 2.88%108924.02%88.95%
2.88% to 3.92%2906.40%95.35%
3.92% to 4.95%992.18%97.53%
4.95% to 5.99%410.90%98.43%
Greater than 5.99%711.57%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.47%3.23% 91.97%68.27%
±2σ -0.91%4.61% 96.98%95.45%
±3σ -2.29%5.99% 98.43%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.59. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.64 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -3.81%280.62%0.62%
-3.81% to -2.86%430.95%1.57%
-2.86% to -1.92%1212.67%4.24%
-1.92% to -0.98%59713.17%17.41%
-0.98% to -0.04%155134.22%51.62%
-0.04% to 0.90%143531.66%83.28%
0.90% to 1.85%53411.78%95.06%
1.85% to 2.79%1352.98%98.04%
2.79% to 3.73%541.19%99.23%
Greater than 3.73%350.77%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.29%1.22% 77.74%68.27%
±2σ -2.55%2.47% 95.21%95.45%
±3σ -3.81%3.73% 98.61%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.36. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 4.93 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -9.43%80.85%0.85%
-9.43% to -7.00%111.17%2.02%
-7.00% to -4.58%333.51%5.53%
-4.58% to -2.16%11312.02%17.55%
-2.16% to 0.27%29130.96%48.51%
0.27% to 2.69%31333.30%81.81%
2.69% to 5.12%12813.62%95.43%
5.12% to 7.54%303.19%98.62%
7.54% to 9.97%111.17%99.79%
Greater than 9.97%20.21%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.96%3.50% 76.70%68.27%
±2σ -6.20%6.74% 95.21%95.45%
±3σ -9.43%9.97% 98.94%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.60. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 38.91 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.83%00.00%0.00%
-4.83% to -2.47%00.00%0.00%
-2.47% to -0.11%00.00%0.00%
-0.11% to 2.24%11512.22%12.22%
2.24% to 4.60%49152.18%64.40%
4.60% to 6.95%21522.85%87.25%
6.95% to 9.31%727.65%94.90%
9.31% to 11.66%222.34%97.24%
11.66% to 14.02%131.38%98.62%
Greater than 14.02%131.38%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.46%7.74% 89.69%68.27%
±2σ -1.68%10.88% 96.39%95.45%
±3σ -4.83%14.02% 98.62%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.28. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 7.73 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -9.90%20.21%0.21%
-9.90% to -7.45%30.32%0.53%
-7.45% to -5.00%333.51%4.04%
-5.00% to -2.55%14615.52%19.55%
-2.55% to -0.10%31833.79%53.35%
-0.10% to 2.35%27028.69%82.04%
2.35% to 4.80%10911.58%93.62%
4.80% to 7.25%414.36%97.98%
7.25% to 9.70%111.17%99.15%
Greater than 9.70%80.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.37%3.17% 77.36%68.27%
±2σ -6.64%6.43% 96.17%95.45%
±3σ -9.90%9.70% 98.94%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.29. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 0.38 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -18.45%10.46%0.46%
-18.45% to -13.55%31.39%1.85%
-13.55% to -8.65%156.94%8.80%
-8.65% to -3.75%2612.04%20.83%
-3.75% to 1.15%5324.54%45.37%
1.15% to 6.04%6831.48%76.85%
6.04% to 10.94%3817.59%94.44%
10.94% to 15.84%104.63%99.07%
15.84% to 20.74%20.93%100.00%
Greater than 20.74%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.38%7.68% 69.91%68.27%
±2σ -11.91%14.21% 96.76%95.45%
±3σ -18.45%20.74% 99.54%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.84. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 22.73 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -9.51%00.00%0.00%
-9.51% to -4.50%00.00%0.00%
-4.50% to 0.51%00.00%0.00%
0.51% to 5.53%3013.82%13.82%
5.53% to 10.54%10347.47%61.29%
10.54% to 15.55%5726.27%87.56%
15.55% to 20.57%177.83%95.39%
20.57% to 25.58%52.30%97.70%
25.58% to 30.59%20.92%98.62%
Greater than 30.59%31.38%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 3.85%17.22% 90.32%68.27%
±2σ -2.83%23.91% 97.24%95.45%
±3σ -9.51%30.59% 98.62%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.77. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 1.59 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -20.48%00.00%0.00%
-20.48% to -15.43%10.46%0.46%
-15.43% to -10.39%83.69%4.15%
-10.39% to -5.34%3917.97%22.12%
-5.34% to -0.29%7434.10%56.22%
-0.29% to 4.75%5223.96%80.18%
4.75% to 9.80%2310.60%90.78%
9.80% to 14.84%156.91%97.70%
14.84% to 19.89%31.38%99.08%
Greater than 19.89%20.92%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.02%6.43% 72.81%68.27%
±2σ -13.75%13.16% 95.85%95.45%
±3σ -20.48%19.89% 99.08%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.50. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 0.53 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -28.62%00.00%0.00%
-28.62% to -20.63%11.39%1.39%
-20.63% to -12.64%22.78%4.17%
-12.64% to -4.65%1013.89%18.06%
-4.65% to 3.34%2737.50%55.56%
3.34% to 11.33%1926.39%81.94%
11.33% to 19.32%68.33%90.28%
19.32% to 27.32%56.94%97.22%
27.32% to 35.31%22.78%100.00%
Greater than 35.31%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.31%14.00% 68.06%68.27%
±2σ -17.96%24.65% 94.44%95.45%
±3σ -28.62%35.31% 100.00%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.62. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 9.49 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -12.59%00.00%0.00%
-12.59% to -4.74%00.00%0.00%
-4.74% to 3.12%00.00%0.00%
3.12% to 10.98%1317.81%17.81%
10.98% to 18.84%3041.10%58.90%
18.84% to 26.70%2128.77%87.67%
26.70% to 34.55%56.85%94.52%
34.55% to 42.41%22.74%97.26%
42.41% to 50.27%00.00%97.26%
Greater than 50.27%22.74%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 8.36%29.31% 87.67%68.27%
±2σ -2.12%39.79% 95.89%95.45%
±3σ -12.59%50.27% 97.26%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.17. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 0.72 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -31.09%00.00%0.00%
-31.09% to -23.57%11.37%1.37%
-23.57% to -16.05%56.85%8.22%
-16.05% to -8.53%912.33%20.55%
-8.53% to -1.01%2432.88%53.42%
-1.01% to 6.51%2128.77%82.19%
6.51% to 14.03%79.59%91.78%
14.03% to 21.55%56.85%98.63%
21.55% to 29.07%00.00%98.63%
Greater than 29.07%11.37%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -11.04%9.02% 69.86%68.27%
±2σ -21.06%19.04% 94.52%95.45%
±3σ -31.09%29.07% 98.63%99.73%