SABR 深度分析报告

Sabre Corporation | 分类: Equity Micro Cap | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 2014-04-01 → 2026-04-01 (145 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 3.98% 3.65% 3.30% 6.13% 5.43% 5.51% 1.72 1.92 1.63 2.03
周度 9.07% 11.56% 9.43% 14.66% 11.94% 12.13% 1.62 2.05 1.43 2.31
月度 15.44% 30.61% 19.23% 30.49% 24.86% 25.26% 1.42 2.33 1.11 2.99
季度 23.13% 85.52% 35.91% 50.30% 43.06% 43.75% 1.18 2.80 0.77 4.31
Annual 86.12% 87.50% 0.77 4.31 0.33 10.19
Option Time Horizon 32.82% 33.34% 1.31 2.53 0.94 3.51
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:47 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $1.82  |  Strike (K): $2.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $0.1750 (Bid $0.0500 / Ask $0.3000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 0.00%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 86.12% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 87.01% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 87.50% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2020-03-19 $0.1400
2019-12-19 $0.1400
2019-09-19 $0.1400
2019-06-20 $0.1400
2019-03-20 $0.1400
2018-12-20 $0.1400
2018-09-20 $0.1400
2018-06-20 $0.1400
2018-03-20 $0.1400
2017-12-20 $0.1400
2017-09-20 $0.1400
2017-06-19 $0.1400
2017-03-17 $0.1400
2016-12-19 $0.1300
2016-09-19 $0.1300
2016-06-17 $0.1300
2016-03-17 $0.1300
2015-12-17 $0.0900
2015-09-17 $0.0900
2015-06-17 $0.0900
2015-03-12 $0.0900
2014-12-11 $0.0900
2014-08-27 $0.0900
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.85. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 18.10 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.94%240.79%0.79%
-11.94% to -8.95%220.73%1.52%
-8.95% to -5.96%802.65%4.17%
-5.96% to -2.98%2327.68%11.85%
-2.98% to 0.01%120940.01%51.85%
0.01% to 3.00%110236.47%88.32%
3.00% to 5.99%2237.38%95.70%
5.99% to 8.97%782.58%98.28%
8.97% to 11.96%210.69%98.97%
Greater than 11.96%311.03%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.97%4.00% 83.98%68.27%
±2σ -7.96%7.98% 95.23%95.45%
±3σ -11.94%11.96% 98.18%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.35. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 20.13 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -6.56%00.00%0.00%
-6.56% to -3.82%00.00%0.00%
-3.82% to -1.09%00.00%0.00%
-1.09% to 1.65%46215.28%15.28%
1.65% to 4.39%143047.30%62.59%
4.39% to 7.12%70023.16%85.74%
7.12% to 9.86%2558.44%94.18%
9.86% to 12.59%953.14%97.32%
12.59% to 15.33%240.79%98.11%
Greater than 15.33%571.89%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.74%8.03% 89.45%68.27%
±2σ -2.91%11.68% 96.49%95.45%
±3σ -6.56%15.33% 98.11%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.88. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 12.67 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -9.74%210.69%0.69%
-9.74% to -7.27%321.06%1.75%
-7.27% to -4.79%862.84%4.60%
-4.79% to -2.32%2718.96%13.56%
-2.32% to 0.15%118839.30%52.86%
0.15% to 2.63%101233.48%86.34%
2.63% to 5.10%2568.47%94.81%
5.10% to 7.58%913.01%97.82%
7.58% to 10.05%401.32%99.14%
Greater than 10.05%260.86%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.15%3.45% 81.51%68.27%
±2σ -6.44%6.75% 94.54%95.45%
±3σ -9.74%10.05% 98.45%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.54. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 17.96 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.15%81.28%1.28%
-27.15% to -20.35%40.64%1.91%
-20.35% to -13.54%132.07%3.99%
-13.54% to -6.74%589.25%13.24%
-6.74% to 0.07%22736.20%49.44%
0.07% to 6.87%24338.76%88.20%
6.87% to 13.68%518.13%96.33%
13.68% to 20.49%132.07%98.41%
20.49% to 27.29%50.80%99.20%
Greater than 27.29%50.80%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -9.00%9.14% 83.41%68.27%
±2σ -18.08%18.22% 95.37%95.45%
±3σ -27.15%27.29% 97.93%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 4.17. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 28.67 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -23.06%00.00%0.00%
-23.06% to -14.39%00.00%0.00%
-14.39% to -5.72%00.00%0.00%
-5.72% to 2.94%436.85%6.85%
2.94% to 11.61%36257.64%64.49%
11.61% to 20.28%15324.36%88.85%
20.28% to 28.95%345.41%94.27%
28.95% to 37.62%132.07%96.34%
37.62% to 46.29%111.75%98.09%
Greater than 46.29%121.91%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.05%23.17% 90.76%68.27%
±2σ -11.50%34.73% 96.02%95.45%
±3σ -23.06%46.29% 98.09%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.57. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 18.32 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.43%20.32%0.32%
-27.43% to -20.36%30.48%0.80%
-20.36% to -13.29%101.59%2.39%
-13.29% to -6.21%629.87%12.26%
-6.21% to 0.86%29046.18%58.44%
0.86% to 7.94%19030.25%88.69%
7.94% to 15.01%477.48%96.18%
15.01% to 22.08%81.27%97.45%
22.08% to 29.16%60.96%98.41%
Greater than 29.16%101.59%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.57%10.29% 84.55%68.27%
±2σ -18.00%19.73% 95.70%95.45%
±3σ -27.43%29.16% 98.09%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.26. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.94 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -46.50%10.69%0.69%
-46.50% to -34.92%32.08%2.78%
-34.92% to -23.34%53.47%6.25%
-23.34% to -11.76%128.33%14.58%
-11.76% to -0.17%4934.03%48.61%
-0.17% to 11.41%5034.72%83.33%
11.41% to 22.99%1611.11%94.44%
22.99% to 34.57%64.17%98.61%
34.57% to 46.16%10.69%99.31%
Greater than 46.16%10.69%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -15.62%15.27% 76.39%68.27%
±2σ -31.06%30.71% 95.14%95.45%
±3σ -46.50%46.16% 98.61%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 6.29. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 57.27 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -63.72%00.00%0.00%
-63.72% to -40.77%00.00%0.00%
-40.77% to -17.81%00.00%0.00%
-17.81% to 5.15%21.38%1.38%
5.15% to 28.10%8760.00%61.38%
28.10% to 51.06%3926.90%88.28%
51.06% to 74.01%138.97%97.24%
74.01% to 96.97%32.07%99.31%
96.97% to 119.92%00.00%99.31%
Greater than 119.92%10.69%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.51%58.71% 92.41%68.27%
±2σ -33.11%89.31% 99.31%95.45%
±3σ -63.72%119.92% 99.31%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.79. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 15.10 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -54.31%00.00%0.00%
-54.31% to -39.89%10.69%0.69%
-39.89% to -25.47%00.00%0.69%
-25.47% to -11.05%1812.41%13.10%
-11.05% to 3.37%6645.52%58.62%
3.37% to 17.79%4228.97%87.59%
17.79% to 32.21%96.21%93.79%
32.21% to 46.63%42.76%96.55%
46.63% to 61.05%32.07%98.62%
Greater than 61.05%21.38%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -15.86%22.59% 80.69%68.27%
±2σ -35.08%41.82% 95.86%95.45%
±3σ -54.31%61.05% 98.62%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of -0.01. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 1.30 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -70.61%00.00%0.00%
-70.61% to -53.26%12.08%2.08%
-53.26% to -35.91%36.25%8.33%
-35.91% to -18.56%48.33%16.67%
-18.56% to -1.21%1633.33%50.00%
-1.21% to 16.14%1429.17%79.17%
16.14% to 33.49%714.58%93.75%
33.49% to 50.84%24.17%97.92%
50.84% to 68.18%12.08%100.00%
Greater than 68.18%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -24.34%21.92% 75.00%68.27%
±2σ -47.48%45.05% 95.83%95.45%
±3σ -70.61%68.18% 100.00%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 5.22. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 31.91 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -195.41%00.00%0.00%
-195.41% to -131.27%00.00%0.00%
-131.27% to -67.13%00.00%0.00%
-67.13% to -2.99%00.00%0.00%
-2.99% to 61.15%3571.43%71.43%
61.15% to 125.29%1020.41%91.84%
125.29% to 189.43%36.12%97.96%
189.43% to 253.57%00.00%97.96%
253.57% to 317.71%00.00%97.96%
Greater than 317.71%12.04%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -24.37%146.67% 95.92%68.27%
±2σ -109.89%232.19% 97.96%95.45%
±3σ -195.41%317.71% 97.96%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.23. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 15.06 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -98.66%00.00%0.00%
-98.66% to -71.73%00.00%0.00%
-71.73% to -44.80%00.00%0.00%
-44.80% to -17.87%510.20%10.20%
-17.87% to 9.06%2653.06%63.27%
9.06% to 35.99%1122.45%85.71%
35.99% to 62.92%48.16%93.88%
62.92% to 89.85%24.08%97.96%
89.85% to 116.78%00.00%97.96%
Greater than 116.78%12.04%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -26.84%44.97% 83.67%68.27%
±2σ -62.75%80.88% 97.96%95.45%
±3σ -98.65%116.78% 97.96%99.73%