TSCO 深度分析报告

Tractor Supply Company | 分类: Equity Large Cap | 年化股息率: 2.44% ($0.93) | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 1994-02-01 → 2026-04-01 (387 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 2.42% 2.17% 2.26% 2.54% 2.15% 2.43% 35.96 37.54 35.19 38.35
周度 5.36% 5.07% 5.14% 5.92% 4.73% 5.35% 35.04 38.52 33.42 40.39
月度 10.61% 10.01% 9.87% 12.34% 9.85% 11.14% 33.29 40.54 30.17 44.74
季度 18.87% 17.84% 17.11% 20.77% 17.06% 19.29% 30.98 43.57 26.12 51.68
Annual 34.12% 38.57% 26.12 51.68 18.57 72.70
Option Time Horizon 13.00% 14.70% 32.26 41.84 28.33 47.65
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:47 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $36.74  |  Strike (K): $40.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $0.8000 (Bid $0.6000 / Ask $1.0000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 2.44%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 34.12% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 34.48% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 38.57% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-02-24 $0.2400
2025-11-24 $0.2300
2025-08-25 $0.2300
2025-05-28 $0.2300
2025-02-26 $0.2300
2024-11-25 $0.2200
2024-08-26 $0.2200
2024-05-24 $0.2200
2024-02-23 $0.2200
2023-11-24 $0.2060
2023-08-25 $0.2060
2023-05-26 $0.2060
2023-02-24 $0.2060
2022-11-18 $0.1840
2022-08-19 $0.1840
2022-05-24 $0.1840
2022-02-17 $0.1840
2021-11-19 $0.1040
2021-08-20 $0.1040
2021-05-21 $0.1040
2021-02-19 $0.1040
2020-11-20 $0.0800
2020-08-21 $0.0800
2020-05-22 $0.0700
2020-02-21 $0.0700
2019-11-22 $0.0700
2019-08-23 $0.0700
2019-05-24 $0.0700
2019-02-22 $0.0620
2018-11-23 $0.0620
2018-08-24 $0.0620
2018-05-25 $0.0620
2018-02-23 $0.0540
2017-11-17 $0.0540
2017-08-17 $0.0540
2017-05-18 $0.0540
2017-02-23 $0.0480
2016-11-09 $0.0480
2016-08-11 $0.0480
2016-05-12 $0.0480
2016-02-18 $0.0400
2015-11-12 $0.0400
2015-08-13 $0.0400
2015-05-14 $0.0400
2015-02-19 $0.0320
2014-11-13 $0.0320
2014-08-14 $0.0320
2014-05-15 $0.0320
2014-02-20 $0.0260
2013-11-14 $0.0260
2013-08-15 $0.0260
2013-05-16 $0.0260
2013-02-21 $0.0200
2012-11-15 $0.0200
2012-08-16 $0.0200
2012-05-17 $0.0200
2012-02-23 $0.0120
2011-11-09 $0.0120
2011-08-11 $0.0120
2011-05-12 $0.0120
2011-02-17 $0.0070
2010-11-10 $0.0070
2010-08-12 $0.0070
2010-05-13 $0.0070
2010-03-11 $0.0070
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.30. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 9.42 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.17%540.69%0.69%
-7.17% to -5.36%710.90%1.59%
-5.36% to -3.54%2603.30%4.89%
-3.54% to -1.72%89711.39%16.28%
-1.72% to 0.09%282735.90%52.18%
0.09% to 1.91%251431.92%84.10%
1.91% to 3.73%86811.02%95.12%
3.73% to 5.55%2342.97%98.10%
5.55% to 7.36%791.00%99.10%
Greater than 7.36%710.90%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.33%2.52% 78.70%68.27%
±2σ -4.75%4.94% 95.12%95.45%
±3σ -7.17%7.36% 98.41%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.58. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 26.37 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -3.39%00.00%0.00%
-3.39% to -1.76%00.00%0.00%
-1.76% to -0.14%00.00%0.00%
-0.14% to 1.49%112414.27%14.27%
1.49% to 3.12%392449.82%64.09%
3.12% to 4.74%172921.95%86.05%
4.74% to 6.37%6087.72%93.77%
6.37% to 8.00%2332.96%96.72%
8.00% to 9.62%1221.55%98.27%
Greater than 9.62%1361.73%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.95%5.29% 87.07%68.27%
±2σ -1.22%7.45% 95.94%95.45%
±3σ -3.39%9.62% 98.27%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.70. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 15.50 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -6.78%490.62%0.62%
-6.78% to -5.08%901.14%1.76%
-5.08% to -3.39%2673.39%5.15%
-3.39% to -1.70%91711.64%16.80%
-1.70% to -0.01%252932.11%48.91%
-0.01% to 1.69%271834.51%83.42%
1.69% to 3.38%91111.57%94.98%
3.38% to 5.07%2703.43%98.41%
5.07% to 6.76%640.81%99.23%
Greater than 6.76%610.77%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.26%2.25% 78.16%68.27%
±2σ -4.52%4.51% 95.10%95.45%
±3σ -6.78%6.77% 98.60%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.65. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 4.52 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -15.63%100.60%0.60%
-15.63% to -11.61%171.01%1.61%
-11.61% to -7.59%533.16%4.76%
-7.59% to -3.58%20612.27%17.03%
-3.58% to 0.44%59835.62%52.65%
0.44% to 4.46%53832.04%84.69%
4.46% to 8.48%1569.29%93.98%
8.48% to 12.50%613.63%97.62%
12.50% to 16.52%191.13%98.75%
Greater than 16.52%211.25%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -4.92%5.80% 78.74%68.27%
±2σ -10.27%11.16% 94.64%95.45%
±3σ -15.63%16.52% 98.15%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.68. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 11.65 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.66%00.00%0.00%
-7.66% to -3.86%00.00%0.00%
-3.86% to -0.06%00.00%0.00%
-0.06% to 3.74%25014.88%14.88%
3.74% to 7.54%83549.70%64.58%
7.54% to 11.34%33720.06%84.64%
11.34% to 15.14%1428.45%93.10%
15.14% to 18.95%533.15%96.25%
18.95% to 22.75%261.55%97.80%
Greater than 22.75%372.20%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 2.47%12.61% 85.95%68.27%
±2σ -2.59%17.68% 95.30%95.45%
±3σ -7.66%22.75% 97.80%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.37. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 3.98 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -15.58%130.77%0.77%
-15.58% to -11.72%171.01%1.79%
-11.72% to -7.86%643.81%5.60%
-7.86% to -4.01%18010.71%16.31%
-4.01% to -0.15%57033.93%50.24%
-0.15% to 3.71%55332.92%83.15%
3.71% to 7.56%19511.61%94.76%
7.56% to 11.42%523.10%97.86%
11.42% to 15.28%191.13%98.99%
Greater than 15.28%171.01%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.29%4.99% 77.74%68.27%
±2σ -10.44%10.13% 94.35%95.45%
±3σ -15.58%15.28% 98.21%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.14. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.67 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -29.97%00.00%0.00%
-29.97% to -22.01%10.26%0.26%
-22.01% to -14.05%194.92%5.18%
-14.05% to -6.10%6115.80%20.98%
-6.10% to 1.86%12031.09%52.07%
1.86% to 9.82%12432.12%84.20%
9.82% to 17.77%3910.10%94.30%
17.77% to 25.73%133.37%97.67%
25.73% to 33.69%61.55%99.22%
Greater than 33.69%30.78%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -8.75%12.47% 74.87%68.27%
±2σ -19.36%23.08% 95.08%95.45%
±3σ -29.97%33.69% 99.22%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.96. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.59 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -12.76%00.00%0.00%
-12.76% to -5.25%00.00%0.00%
-5.25% to 2.26%00.00%0.00%
2.26% to 9.76%7719.90%19.90%
9.76% to 17.27%16442.38%62.27%
17.27% to 24.78%8521.96%84.24%
24.78% to 32.29%287.24%91.47%
32.29% to 39.79%184.65%96.12%
39.79% to 47.30%82.07%98.19%
Greater than 47.30%71.81%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 7.26%27.28% 80.36%68.27%
±2σ -2.75%37.29% 95.61%95.45%
±3σ -12.76%47.30% 98.19%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.16. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 1.74 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -30.24%20.52%0.52%
-30.24% to -22.84%30.78%1.29%
-22.84% to -15.44%174.39%5.68%
-15.44% to -8.04%5012.92%18.60%
-8.04% to -0.64%13935.92%54.52%
-0.64% to 6.76%9223.77%78.29%
6.76% to 14.16%5814.99%93.28%
14.16% to 21.57%164.13%97.42%
21.57% to 28.97%92.33%99.74%
Greater than 28.97%10.26%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -10.51%9.23% 73.13%68.27%
±2σ -20.37%19.10% 94.32%95.45%
±3σ -30.24%28.97% 99.22%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.89. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.34 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -51.04%00.00%0.00%
-51.04% to -36.88%10.78%0.78%
-36.88% to -22.73%64.69%5.47%
-22.73% to -8.57%118.59%14.06%
-8.57% to 5.58%5341.41%55.47%
5.58% to 19.74%3426.56%82.03%
19.74% to 33.89%1410.94%92.97%
33.89% to 48.05%53.91%96.88%
48.05% to 62.20%21.56%98.44%
Greater than 62.20%21.56%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -13.29%24.46% 78.91%68.27%
±2σ -32.17%43.33% 94.53%95.45%
±3σ -51.04%62.20% 98.44%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.85. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.70 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -20.37%00.00%0.00%
-20.37% to -7.00%00.00%0.00%
-7.00% to 6.38%00.00%0.00%
6.38% to 19.76%2922.48%22.48%
19.76% to 33.14%5240.31%62.79%
33.14% to 46.52%1914.73%77.52%
46.52% to 59.90%2015.50%93.02%
59.90% to 73.28%53.88%96.90%
73.28% to 86.65%21.55%98.45%
Greater than 86.65%21.55%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 15.30%50.98% 79.07%68.27%
±2σ -2.54%68.82% 96.12%95.45%
±3σ -20.37%86.65% 98.45%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.74. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 1.81 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -53.55%00.00%0.00%
-53.55% to -40.72%10.78%0.78%
-40.72% to -27.89%75.43%6.20%
-27.89% to -15.06%1713.18%19.38%
-15.06% to -2.23%4333.33%52.71%
-2.23% to 10.60%4434.11%86.82%
10.60% to 23.43%107.75%94.57%
23.43% to 36.25%00.00%94.57%
36.25% to 49.08%64.65%99.22%
Greater than 49.08%10.78%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -19.34%14.87% 76.74%68.27%
±2σ -36.44%31.98% 93.02%95.45%
±3σ -53.55%49.08% 99.22%99.73%