VAC Deep Analytical Report

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | Category: Equity Small Cap | Ann. Div Yield: 5.38% ($3.16) | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 | Data Range: 2011-11-01 → 2026-02-01 (172 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 2.59% 2.63% 2.27% 3.32% 3.03% 3.24% 57.14 60.71 55.43 62.59
Weekly 5.54% 7.32% 5.96% 7.81% 6.68% 7.14% 55.09 62.97 51.53 67.32
Monthly 11.38% 20.75% 12.19% 16.49% 13.91% 14.86% 51.25 67.69 44.60 77.79
Quarterly 18.46% 42.06% 18.70% 27.45% 24.09% 25.73% 46.29 74.94 36.38 95.35
Annual 48.18% 51.47% 36.38 95.35 22.47 154.37
Option Time Horizon 18.53% 19.80% 48.94 70.89 40.66 85.32
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-02-22T14:20 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-04-17 (54 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $58.90  |  Strike (K): $60.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $3.8000 (Bid $3.4000 / Ask $4.2000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.72% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 5.38%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 48.18% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 48.53% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 51.47% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2025-12-24 $0.8000
2025-09-17 $0.7900
2025-05-23 $0.7900
2025-03-05 $0.7900
2024-12-19 $0.7900
2024-09-19 $0.7600
2024-05-22 $0.7600
2024-02-28 $0.7600
2023-12-20 $0.7600
2023-09-20 $0.7200
2023-05-24 $0.7200
2023-03-01 $0.7200
2022-12-21 $0.7200
2022-09-21 $0.6200
2022-05-25 $0.6200
2022-03-02 $0.6200
2021-12-22 $0.5400
2021-09-22 $0.5400
2020-02-26 $0.5400
2019-12-20 $0.5400
2019-09-18 $0.4500
2019-05-22 $0.4500
2019-02-27 $0.4500
2018-12-19 $0.4500
2018-09-19 $0.4000
2018-05-24 $0.4000
2018-02-28 $0.4000
2017-12-20 $0.4000
2017-09-20 $0.3500
2017-05-23 $0.3500
2017-02-21 $0.3500
2016-12-20 $0.3500
2016-09-20 $0.3000
2016-05-24 $0.3000
2016-02-23 $0.3000
2015-12-17 $0.3000
2015-09-22 $0.2500
2015-06-16 $0.2500
2015-02-24 $0.2500
2014-10-24 $0.2500
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Left Skewed (Extreme Negative Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of -1.03. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 26.70 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.70%290.81%0.81%
-7.70% to -5.76%230.64%1.45%
-5.76% to -3.81%812.26%3.70%
-3.81% to -1.87%38310.67%14.37%
-1.87% to 0.07%133537.19%51.56%
0.07% to 2.02%121133.73%85.29%
2.02% to 3.96%36410.14%95.43%
3.96% to 5.90%1093.04%98.47%
5.90% to 7.85%270.75%99.22%
Greater than 7.85%280.78%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.52%2.67% 81.34%68.27%
±2σ -5.11%5.26% 96.18%95.45%
±3σ -7.70%7.85% 98.41%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 11.56. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 280.56 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.88%00.00%0.00%
-4.88% to -2.91%00.00%0.00%
-2.91% to -0.93%00.00%0.00%
-0.93% to 1.04%902.51%2.51%
1.04% to 3.02%229663.94%66.44%
3.02% to 4.99%87524.37%90.81%
4.99% to 6.97%1985.51%96.32%
6.97% to 8.94%651.81%98.13%
8.94% to 10.91%220.61%98.75%
Greater than 10.91%451.25%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.38%5.65% 93.62%68.27%
±2σ -2.25%8.28% 97.66%95.45%
±3σ -4.88%10.91% 98.75%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.31. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 65.16 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -6.80%210.58%0.58%
-6.80% to -5.09%240.67%1.25%
-5.09% to -3.39%982.73%3.98%
-3.39% to -1.68%39310.94%14.93%
-1.68% to 0.02%130436.31%51.24%
0.02% to 1.73%123134.28%85.52%
1.73% to 3.43%37810.53%96.05%
3.43% to 5.14%922.56%98.61%
5.14% to 6.84%290.81%99.42%
Greater than 6.84%210.58%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.25%2.30% 80.84%68.27%
±2σ -4.52%4.57% 96.18%95.45%
±3σ -6.80%6.84% 98.83%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.34. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 5.84 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -16.28%70.94%0.94%
-16.28% to -12.12%141.88%2.82%
-12.12% to -7.97%152.01%4.83%
-7.97% to -3.81%8511.41%16.24%
-3.81% to 0.35%23631.68%47.92%
0.35% to 4.51%27336.64%84.56%
4.51% to 8.67%7810.47%95.03%
8.67% to 12.82%273.62%98.66%
12.82% to 16.98%50.67%99.33%
Greater than 16.98%50.67%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.19%5.89% 79.73%68.27%
±2σ -10.74%11.44% 94.90%95.45%
±3σ -16.28%16.98% 98.39%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 8.63. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 125.13 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -14.17%00.00%0.00%
-14.17% to -8.68%00.00%0.00%
-8.68% to -3.19%00.00%0.00%
-3.19% to 2.30%141.88%1.88%
2.30% to 7.79%49065.68%67.56%
7.79% to 13.28%17623.59%91.15%
13.28% to 18.77%354.69%95.84%
18.77% to 24.26%162.14%97.99%
24.26% to 29.75%60.80%98.79%
Greater than 29.75%91.21%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.47%15.11% 93.16%68.27%
±2σ -6.85%22.43% 97.59%95.45%
±3σ -14.17%29.75% 98.79%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.14. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 14.11 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -17.72%10.13%0.13%
-17.72% to -13.26%81.07%1.21%
-13.26% to -8.79%162.14%3.35%
-8.79% to -4.33%8711.66%15.01%
-4.33% to 0.14%31642.36%57.37%
0.14% to 4.61%21829.22%86.60%
4.61% to 9.07%648.58%95.17%
9.07% to 13.54%152.01%97.18%
13.54% to 18.01%70.94%98.12%
Greater than 18.01%141.88%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.81%6.10% 81.50%68.27%
±2σ -11.77%12.05% 95.04%95.45%
±3σ -17.72%18.01% 97.99%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.43. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.76 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -32.60%10.58%0.58%
-32.60% to -24.07%00.00%0.58%
-24.07% to -15.53%52.92%3.51%
-15.53% to -7.00%2916.96%20.47%
-7.00% to 1.53%5532.16%52.63%
1.53% to 10.06%5230.41%83.04%
10.06% to 18.60%179.94%92.98%
18.60% to 27.13%84.68%97.66%
27.13% to 35.66%21.17%98.83%
Greater than 35.66%21.17%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -9.85%12.91% 76.02%68.27%
±2σ -21.22%24.29% 95.91%95.45%
±3σ -32.60%35.66% 98.25%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 8.07. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 83.24 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -43.13%00.00%0.00%
-43.13% to -27.57%00.00%0.00%
-27.57% to -12.00%00.00%0.00%
-12.00% to 3.56%00.00%0.00%
3.56% to 19.13%12270.93%70.93%
19.13% to 34.69%3620.93%91.86%
34.69% to 50.26%95.23%97.09%
50.26% to 65.82%31.74%98.84%
65.82% to 81.39%00.00%98.84%
Greater than 81.39%21.16%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.63%39.88% 94.19%68.27%
±2σ -22.38%60.63% 98.26%95.45%
±3σ -43.13%81.39% 98.84%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.56. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 8.92 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -36.33%10.58%0.58%
-36.33% to -27.19%00.00%0.58%
-27.19% to -18.05%52.91%3.49%
-18.05% to -8.91%2615.12%18.60%
-8.91% to 0.23%6236.05%54.65%
0.23% to 9.37%4928.49%83.14%
9.37% to 18.51%2112.21%95.35%
18.51% to 27.65%52.91%98.26%
27.65% to 36.79%10.58%98.84%
Greater than 36.79%21.16%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -11.96%12.41% 79.65%68.27%
±2σ -24.14%24.60% 95.93%95.45%
±3σ -36.33%36.79% 98.26%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.02. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of -0.24 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -51.46%00.00%0.00%
-51.46% to -37.62%00.00%0.00%
-37.62% to -23.77%47.02%7.02%
-23.77% to -9.93%915.79%22.81%
-9.93% to 3.91%1424.56%47.37%
3.91% to 17.75%1933.33%80.70%
17.75% to 31.59%712.28%92.98%
31.59% to 45.44%47.02%100.00%
45.44% to 59.28%00.00%100.00%
Greater than 59.28%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -14.55%22.37% 64.91%68.27%
±2σ -33.00%40.82% 94.74%95.45%
±3σ -51.46%59.28% 100.00%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 6.09. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 42.17 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -88.48%00.00%0.00%
-88.48% to -56.93%00.00%0.00%
-56.93% to -25.38%00.00%0.00%
-25.38% to 6.17%00.00%0.00%
6.17% to 37.71%3967.24%67.24%
37.71% to 69.26%1627.59%94.83%
69.26% to 100.81%23.45%98.28%
100.81% to 132.35%00.00%98.28%
132.35% to 163.90%00.00%98.28%
Greater than 163.90%11.72%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -4.35%79.78% 96.55%68.27%
±2σ -46.41%121.84% 98.28%95.45%
±3σ -88.48%163.90% 98.28%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.89. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 0.57 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -56.15%00.00%0.00%
-56.15% to -42.12%00.00%0.00%
-42.12% to -28.10%23.45%3.45%
-28.10% to -14.07%915.52%18.97%
-14.07% to -0.05%2339.66%58.62%
-0.05% to 13.98%1322.41%81.03%
13.98% to 28.01%58.62%89.66%
28.01% to 42.03%46.90%96.55%
42.03% to 56.06%23.45%100.00%
Greater than 56.06%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -18.75%18.66% 68.97%68.27%
±2σ -37.45%37.36% 94.83%95.45%
±3σ -56.15%56.06% 100.00%99.73%