VAC 深度分析报告

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation | 分类: Equity Small Cap | 年化股息率: 4.44% ($3.17) | 最后更新: 2026-04-26 | 数据区间: 2011-11-01 → 2026-04-01 (174 个月)
Quick 总览
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ 低er
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ 低er
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
日度 2.61% 2.63% 2.28% 3.38% 3.04% 3.33% 70.33 74.74 68.23 77.04
周度 5.59% 7.35% 5.98% 8.01% 6.69% 7.32% 67.81 77.51 63.42 82.88
月度 11.39% 20.70% 12.19% 17.12% 13.92% 15.25% 63.08 83.33 54.88 95.78
季度 18.86% 42.02% 18.96% 29.30% 24.11% 26.41% 56.97 92.27 44.76 117.43
Annual 48.22% 52.82% 44.76 117.43 27.64 190.20
Option Time Horizon 18.38% 20.13% 60.33 87.13 50.20 104.70
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-04-26T02:46 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-06-18 (53 days)  |  Spot 价格 (S): $72.50  |  Strike (K): $75.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-价格: $4.2500 (Bid $3.7000 / Ask $4.8000)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.69% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 4.44%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 48.22% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 48.85% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 52.82% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  价格 bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, 低er = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2026-03-04 $0.8000
2025-12-24 $0.8000
2025-09-17 $0.7900
2025-05-23 $0.7900
2025-03-05 $0.7900
2024-12-19 $0.7900
2024-09-19 $0.7600
2024-05-22 $0.7600
2024-02-28 $0.7600
2023-12-20 $0.7600
2023-09-20 $0.7200
2023-05-24 $0.7200
2023-03-01 $0.7200
2022-12-21 $0.7200
2022-09-21 $0.6200
2022-05-25 $0.6200
2022-03-02 $0.6200
2021-12-22 $0.5400
2021-09-22 $0.5400
2020-02-26 $0.5400
2019-12-20 $0.5400
2019-09-18 $0.4500
2019-05-22 $0.4500
2019-02-27 $0.4500
2018-12-19 $0.4500
2018-09-19 $0.4000
2018-05-24 $0.4000
2018-02-28 $0.4000
2017-12-20 $0.4000
2017-09-20 $0.3500
2017-05-23 $0.3500
2017-02-21 $0.3500
2016-12-20 $0.3500
2016-09-20 $0.3000
2016-05-24 $0.3000
2016-02-23 $0.3000
2015-12-17 $0.3000
2015-09-22 $0.2500
2015-06-16 $0.2500
2015-02-24 $0.2500
2014-10-24 $0.2500
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Left Skewed (负向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of -0.94. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 25.85 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.76%300.83%0.83%
-7.76% to -5.80%240.66%1.49%
-5.80% to -3.84%842.31%3.80%
-3.84% to -1.88%38710.65%14.45%
-1.88% to 0.08%135037.15%51.60%
0.08% to 2.04%122833.79%85.39%
2.04% to 4.00%36710.10%95.49%
4.00% to 5.96%1093.00%98.49%
5.96% to 7.92%270.74%99.23%
Greater than 7.92%280.77%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.53%2.69% 81.48%68.27%
±2σ -5.15%5.31% 96.09%95.45%
±3σ -7.76%7.92% 98.40%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 11.42. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 276.88 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.86%00.00%0.00%
-4.86% to -2.89%00.00%0.00%
-2.89% to -0.91%00.00%0.00%
-0.91% to 1.06%992.72%2.72%
1.06% to 3.04%231763.74%66.46%
3.04% to 5.01%87524.07%90.54%
5.01% to 6.99%2075.69%96.23%
6.99% to 8.96%681.87%98.10%
8.96% to 10.94%230.63%98.73%
Greater than 10.94%461.27%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.40%5.67% 93.48%68.27%
±2σ -2.23%8.30% 97.66%95.45%
±3σ -4.86%10.94% 98.73%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 3.27. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 63.62 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -6.82%210.58%0.58%
-6.82% to -5.11%240.66%1.24%
-5.11% to -3.40%982.70%3.93%
-3.40% to -1.69%40611.17%15.10%
-1.69% to 0.02%131636.20%51.31%
0.02% to 1.73%124134.14%85.45%
1.73% to 3.44%38210.51%95.96%
3.44% to 5.15%952.61%98.57%
5.15% to 6.86%300.83%99.39%
Greater than 6.86%220.61%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -2.26%2.30% 80.80%68.27%
±2σ -4.54%4.58% 96.15%95.45%
±3σ -6.82%6.86% 98.82%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of -0.27. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 5.70 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -16.41%70.93%0.93%
-16.41% to -12.21%141.86%2.79%
-12.21% to -8.02%162.12%4.91%
-8.02% to -3.82%8611.41%16.31%
-3.82% to 0.38%23931.70%48.01%
0.38% to 4.57%27436.34%84.35%
4.57% to 8.77%8010.61%94.96%
8.77% to 12.97%263.45%98.41%
12.97% to 17.16%60.80%99.20%
Greater than 17.16%60.80%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.22%5.97% 79.84%68.27%
±2σ -10.81%11.57% 94.69%95.45%
±3σ -16.41%17.16% 98.28%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 8.45. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 121.31 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -14.19%00.00%0.00%
-14.19% to -8.67%00.00%0.00%
-8.67% to -3.16%00.00%0.00%
-3.16% to 2.35%141.85%1.85%
2.35% to 7.87%49665.70%67.55%
7.87% to 13.38%17523.18%90.73%
13.38% to 18.89%385.03%95.76%
18.89% to 24.41%162.12%97.88%
24.41% to 29.92%60.79%98.68%
Greater than 29.92%101.32%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.51%15.22% 92.85%68.27%
±2σ -6.84%22.57% 97.48%95.45%
±3σ -14.19%29.92% 98.68%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 2.06. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 13.77 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -17.83%20.26%0.26%
-17.83% to -13.35%81.06%1.32%
-13.35% to -8.86%172.25%3.58%
-8.86% to -4.37%8611.39%14.97%
-4.37% to 0.12%32142.52%57.48%
0.12% to 4.60%21929.01%86.49%
4.60% to 9.09%668.74%95.23%
9.09% to 13.58%151.99%97.22%
13.58% to 18.07%70.93%98.15%
Greater than 18.07%141.85%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.87%6.10% 81.46%68.27%
±2σ -11.85%12.08% 94.97%95.45%
±3σ -17.83%18.06% 97.88%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.42. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 2.67 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (高er Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -32.54%10.58%0.58%
-32.54% to -23.99%00.00%0.58%
-23.99% to -15.45%52.89%3.47%
-15.45% to -6.90%2916.76%20.23%
-6.90% to 1.64%5632.37%52.60%
1.64% to 10.19%5129.48%82.08%
10.19% to 18.73%1910.98%93.06%
18.73% to 27.28%84.62%97.69%
27.28% to 35.83%21.16%98.84%
Greater than 35.83%21.16%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -9.75%13.04% 76.88%68.27%
±2σ -21.14%24.43% 95.95%95.45%
±3σ -32.54%35.83% 98.27%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 8.01. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 82.79 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -42.82%00.00%0.00%
-42.82% to -27.29%00.00%0.00%
-27.29% to -11.77%00.00%0.00%
-11.77% to 3.76%00.00%0.00%
3.76% to 19.29%12370.69%70.69%
19.29% to 34.81%3620.69%91.38%
34.81% to 50.34%105.75%97.13%
50.34% to 65.87%31.72%98.85%
65.87% to 81.40%00.00%98.85%
Greater than 81.40%21.15%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.41%39.99% 94.25%68.27%
±2σ -22.12%60.69% 98.28%95.45%
±3σ -42.82%81.40% 98.85%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 1.55. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 8.83 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -36.45%10.57%0.57%
-36.45% to -27.30%00.00%0.57%
-27.30% to -18.16%52.87%3.45%
-18.16% to -9.02%2614.94%18.39%
-9.02% to 0.13%6235.63%54.02%
0.13% to 9.27%5028.74%82.76%
9.27% to 18.41%2212.64%95.40%
18.41% to 27.56%52.87%98.28%
27.56% to 36.70%10.57%98.85%
Greater than 36.70%21.15%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -12.06%12.32% 79.89%68.27%
±2σ -24.25%24.51% 95.98%95.45%
±3σ -36.45%36.70% 98.28%99.73%
收盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a 偏度 factor of 0.02. Further, an Excess 峰度 of -0.37 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -52.23%00.00%0.00%
-52.23% to -38.08%00.00%0.00%
-38.08% to -23.94%47.02%7.02%
-23.94% to -9.79%915.79%22.81%
-9.79% to 4.35%1424.56%47.37%
4.35% to 18.49%1831.58%78.95%
18.49% to 32.64%712.28%91.23%
32.64% to 46.78%58.77%100.00%
46.78% to 60.93%00.00%100.00%
Greater than 60.93%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -14.51%23.21% 64.91%68.27%
±2σ -33.37%42.07% 94.74%95.45%
±3σ -52.23%60.93% 100.00%99.73%
高-to-低 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals 高ly Right Skewed (Extreme 正向 Tail Risk) with a 偏度 factor of 6.06. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 41.93 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -87.69%00.00%0.00%
-87.69% to -56.18%00.00%0.00%
-56.18% to -24.66%00.00%0.00%
-24.66% to 6.86%00.00%0.00%
6.86% to 38.37%3967.24%67.24%
38.37% to 69.89%1627.59%94.83%
69.89% to 101.41%23.45%98.28%
101.41% to 132.92%00.00%98.28%
132.92% to 164.44%00.00%98.28%
Greater than 164.44%11.72%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.65%80.39% 96.55%68.27%
±2σ -45.67%122.42% 98.28%95.45%
±3σ -87.69%164.44% 98.28%99.73%
开盘-to-收盘 收益
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (正向 Asymmetry) with a 偏度 factor of 0.86. Further, an Excess 峰度 of 0.49 proves the distribution possesses Normal Tails (Mesokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / Range频率ProbCum. Prob
Less than -57.24%00.00%0.00%
-57.24% to -43.01%00.00%0.00%
-43.01% to -28.79%23.45%3.45%
-28.79% to -14.57%1017.24%20.69%
-14.57% to -0.34%2237.93%58.62%
-0.34% to 13.88%1322.41%81.03%
13.88% to 28.10%58.62%89.66%
28.10% to 42.33%46.90%96.55%
42.33% to 56.55%23.45%100.00%
Greater than 56.55%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SD低er BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -19.31%18.62% 67.24%68.27%
±2σ -38.27%37.58% 94.83%95.45%
±3σ -57.24%56.55% 100.00%99.73%