XLF Deep Analytical Report

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF | Category: Equity Mega Cap | Ann. Div Yield: 1.11% ($0.58) | Last Updated: 2026-02-22 | Data Range: 1998-12-01 → 2026-02-01 (327 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 1.79% 1.60% 1.47% 1.58% 1.05% 1.20% 51.94 53.05 51.39 53.61
Weekly 3.79% 4.25% 3.66% 3.75% 2.32% 2.65% 51.29 53.72 50.11 54.98
Monthly 6.06% 9.77% 6.39% 8.10% 4.83% 5.52% 50.01 55.09 47.66 57.81
Quarterly 9.72% 17.24% 11.30% 13.37% 8.37% 9.56% 48.28 57.07 44.40 62.05
Annual 16.74% 19.12% 44.40 62.05 37.56 73.36
Option Time Horizon 6.44% 7.35% 49.22 55.98 46.15 59.70
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-02-22T14:25 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-04-17 (54 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $52.49  |  Strike (K): $53.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $1.2150 (Bid $1.1100 / Ask $1.3200)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.72% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 1.11%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 16.74% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 16.89% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 19.12% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2025-12-22 $0.1910
2025-09-22 $0.1780
2025-06-23 $0.1720
2025-03-24 $0.1790
2024-12-23 $0.2060
2024-09-23 $0.1650
2024-06-24 $0.1630
2024-03-18 $0.1530
2023-12-18 $0.1840
2023-09-18 $0.1550
2023-06-20 $0.1500
2023-03-20 $0.1530
2022-12-19 $0.2100
2022-09-19 $0.1730
2022-06-21 $0.1640
2022-03-21 $0.1520
2021-12-20 $0.1840
2021-09-20 $0.1620
2021-06-21 $0.1390
2021-03-22 $0.1510
2020-12-21 $0.1520
2020-09-21 $0.1350
2020-06-22 $0.1520
2020-03-23 $0.1590
2019-12-20 $0.1560
2019-09-20 $0.1440
2019-06-21 $0.1390
2019-03-15 $0.1350
2018-12-21 $0.1450
2018-09-21 $0.1280
2018-06-15 $0.1190
2018-03-16 $0.1050
2017-12-15 $0.1280
2017-09-15 $0.1030
2017-06-16 $0.0930
2017-03-17 $0.0880
2016-12-16 $0.1070
2016-09-16 $0.0926
2016-06-17 $0.0983
2016-03-18 $0.0812
2015-12-18 $0.1219
2015-09-18 $0.0918
2015-06-19 $0.0894
2015-03-20 $0.0739
2014-12-19 $0.1024
2014-09-19 $0.0796
2014-06-20 $0.0731
2014-03-21 $0.0674
2013-12-20 $0.0820
2013-09-20 $0.0658
2013-06-21 $0.0626
2013-03-15 $0.0504
2012-12-21 $0.0845
2012-09-21 $0.0536
2012-06-15 $0.0552
2012-03-16 $0.0406
2011-12-16 $0.0650
2011-09-16 $0.0406
2011-06-17 $0.0431
2011-03-18 $0.0341
2010-12-17 $0.0455
2010-09-17 $0.0268
2010-06-18 $0.0252
2010-03-19 $0.0292
2009-12-18 $0.0422
2009-09-18 $0.0382
2009-06-19 $0.0496
2009-03-20 $0.0699
2008-12-19 $0.1487
2008-09-19 $0.1543
2008-06-20 $0.1625
2008-03-20 $0.1608
2007-12-21 $0.2128
2007-09-21 $0.2071
2007-06-15 $0.1657
2007-03-16 $0.1202
2006-12-15 $0.2283
2006-09-15 $0.1576
2006-06-16 $0.1519
2006-03-17 $0.1438
2005-12-16 $0.1690
2005-09-16 $0.1397
2005-06-17 $0.1422
2005-03-18 $0.1259
2004-12-17 $0.1519
2004-09-17 $0.1284
2004-06-18 $0.1186
2004-03-19 $0.1089
2003-12-19 $0.1332
2003-09-19 $0.1129
2003-06-20 $0.0942
2003-03-21 $0.0788
2002-12-20 $0.1080
2002-09-20 $0.0910
2002-06-21 $0.0910
2002-03-15 $0.0731
2001-12-21 $0.0934
2001-09-21 $0.0804
2001-06-15 $0.0820
2001-03-16 $0.0707
2000-12-15 $0.0837
2000-09-15 $0.0715
2000-06-16 $0.0707
2000-03-17 $0.0691
1999-12-17 $0.0682
1999-09-17 $0.0609
1999-06-18 $0.0577
1999-03-19 $0.0561
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.31. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 14.79 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -5.33%540.79%0.79%
-5.33% to -3.99%640.94%1.73%
-3.99% to -2.65%1852.71%4.44%
-2.65% to -1.30%6419.38%13.82%
-1.30% to 0.04%242735.53%49.35%
0.04% to 1.38%257237.65%87.00%
1.38% to 2.73%6349.28%96.28%
2.73% to 4.07%1311.92%98.20%
4.07% to 5.41%600.88%99.08%
Greater than 5.41%630.92%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.75%1.83% 82.58%68.27%
±2σ -3.54%3.62% 95.49%95.45%
±3σ -5.33%5.41% 98.29%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.27. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 30.03 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -2.98%00.00%0.00%
-2.98% to -1.78%00.00%0.00%
-1.78% to -0.58%00.00%0.00%
-0.58% to 0.61%3765.50%5.50%
0.61% to 1.81%424662.15%67.65%
1.81% to 3.01%142220.81%88.47%
3.01% to 4.21%4186.12%94.58%
4.21% to 5.40%1522.22%96.81%
5.40% to 6.60%721.05%97.86%
Greater than 6.60%1462.14%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.21%3.41% 91.45%68.27%
±2σ -1.38%5.00% 96.27%95.45%
±3σ -2.98%6.60% 97.86%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.44. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 16.15 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.38%600.88%0.88%
-4.38% to -3.28%460.67%1.55%
-3.28% to -2.18%1432.09%3.64%
-2.18% to -1.08%6549.57%13.22%
-1.08% to 0.02%271239.70%52.91%
0.02% to 1.12%226833.20%86.11%
1.12% to 2.22%6299.21%95.32%
2.22% to 3.33%1882.75%98.07%
3.33% to 4.42%761.11%99.18%
Greater than 4.42%560.82%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.44%1.49% 82.27%68.27%
±2σ -2.91%2.96% 95.58%95.45%
±3σ -4.38%4.42% 98.30%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.47. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 8.98 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.18%151.06%1.06%
-11.18% to -8.34%151.06%2.12%
-8.34% to -5.50%483.39%5.50%
-5.50% to -2.66%1339.39%14.89%
-2.66% to 0.18%47133.24%48.13%
0.18% to 3.02%54538.46%86.59%
3.02% to 5.86%1238.68%95.27%
5.86% to 8.70%433.03%98.31%
8.70% to 11.54%130.92%99.22%
Greater than 11.54%110.78%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.60%3.97% 82.07%68.27%
±2σ -7.39%7.75% 94.64%95.45%
±3σ -11.18%11.54% 98.17%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.73. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 20.39 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.99%00.00%0.00%
-7.99% to -4.80%00.00%0.00%
-4.80% to -1.61%00.00%0.00%
-1.61% to 1.57%876.14%6.14%
1.57% to 4.76%87161.42%67.56%
4.76% to 7.95%29520.80%88.36%
7.95% to 11.13%835.85%94.22%
11.13% to 14.32%322.26%96.47%
14.32% to 17.50%161.13%97.60%
Greater than 17.50%342.40%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.51%9.01% 91.11%68.27%
±2σ -3.74%13.26% 95.84%95.45%
±3σ -7.98%17.50% 97.60%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.69. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 6.43 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -10.92%110.78%0.78%
-10.92% to -8.18%110.78%1.55%
-8.18% to -5.43%332.33%3.88%
-5.43% to -2.69%1299.10%12.98%
-2.69% to 0.06%60442.60%55.57%
0.06% to 2.81%41329.13%84.70%
2.81% to 5.55%1339.38%94.08%
5.55% to 8.30%483.39%97.46%
8.30% to 11.05%161.13%98.59%
Greater than 11.05%201.41%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.60%3.72% 80.89%68.27%
±2σ -7.26%7.39% 95.06%95.45%
±3σ -10.92%11.05% 97.81%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.46. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.61 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -17.53%51.53%1.53%
-17.53% to -12.98%10.31%1.84%
-12.98% to -8.43%144.29%6.13%
-8.43% to -3.89%3711.35%17.48%
-3.89% to 0.66%9830.06%47.55%
0.66% to 5.21%11635.58%83.13%
5.21% to 9.75%3911.96%95.09%
9.75% to 14.30%103.07%98.16%
14.30% to 18.85%51.53%99.69%
Greater than 18.85%10.31%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.40%6.72% 76.99%68.27%
±2σ -11.47%12.79% 95.09%95.45%
±3σ -17.53%18.85% 98.16%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.05. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 22.22 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -18.54%00.00%0.00%
-18.54% to -11.21%00.00%0.00%
-11.21% to -3.88%00.00%0.00%
-3.88% to 3.45%123.67%3.67%
3.45% to 10.78%21264.83%68.50%
10.78% to 18.10%6620.18%88.69%
18.10% to 25.43%216.42%95.11%
25.43% to 32.76%61.83%96.94%
32.76% to 40.09%30.92%97.86%
Greater than 40.09%72.14%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.00%20.55% 91.74%68.27%
±2σ -8.77%30.32% 96.33%95.45%
±3σ -18.54%40.09% 97.86%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.25. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 5.33 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -19.21%10.31%0.31%
-19.21% to -14.42%20.61%0.92%
-14.42% to -9.63%103.06%3.98%
-9.63% to -4.84%4012.23%16.21%
-4.84% to -0.05%12437.92%54.13%
-0.05% to 4.74%9629.36%83.49%
4.74% to 9.53%3310.09%93.58%
9.53% to 14.32%144.28%97.86%
14.32% to 19.11%20.61%98.47%
Greater than 19.11%51.53%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -6.44%6.34% 79.51%68.27%
±2σ -12.82%12.72% 95.11%95.45%
±3σ -19.21%19.11% 98.17%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Left Skewed (Negative Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of -0.93. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 3.09 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.26%21.83%1.83%
-27.26% to -19.97%10.92%2.75%
-19.97% to -12.68%32.75%5.50%
-12.68% to -5.39%1513.76%19.27%
-5.39% to 1.91%2522.94%42.20%
1.91% to 9.20%4642.20%84.40%
9.20% to 16.49%1110.09%94.50%
16.49% to 23.78%54.59%99.08%
23.78% to 31.07%10.92%100.00%
Greater than 31.07%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.82%11.63% 74.31%68.27%
±2σ -17.54%21.35% 93.58%95.45%
±3σ -27.26%31.07% 98.17%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.13. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 11.03 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -32.21%00.00%0.00%
-32.21% to -19.28%00.00%0.00%
-19.28% to -6.35%00.00%0.00%
-6.35% to 6.58%32.73%2.73%
6.58% to 19.52%7164.55%67.27%
19.52% to 32.45%2320.91%88.18%
32.45% to 45.38%76.36%94.55%
45.38% to 58.31%10.91%95.45%
58.31% to 71.24%10.91%96.36%
Greater than 71.24%43.64%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 2.27%36.76% 91.82%68.27%
±2σ -14.97%54.00% 95.45%95.45%
±3σ -32.21%71.24% 96.36%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.65. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 12.50 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -34.22%00.00%0.00%
-34.22% to -25.75%00.00%0.00%
-25.75% to -17.28%21.82%1.82%
-17.28% to -8.81%1311.82%13.64%
-8.81% to -0.33%5247.27%60.91%
-0.33% to 8.14%2522.73%83.64%
8.14% to 16.61%1412.73%96.36%
16.61% to 25.08%10.91%97.27%
25.08% to 33.55%10.91%98.18%
Greater than 33.55%21.82%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -11.63%10.96% 82.73%68.27%
±2σ -22.93%22.26% 96.36%95.45%
±3σ -34.22%33.55% 98.18%99.73%