XLF Deep Analytical Report

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF | Category: Equity Mega Cap | Ann. Div Yield: 1.19% ($0.58) | Last Updated: 2026-03-24 | Data Range: 1998-12-01 → 2026-03-01 (328 months)
Quick Overview
Timeframe C-C DoR σ
(Historical)
H-L DoR σ
(Historical)
O-C DoR σ
(Historical)
5Y ATRP
(Avg)
Binomial IV
(Period)
Yahoo IV
(Period)
1σ Lower
(68.27%)
1σ Upper 2σ Lower
(95.45%)
2σ Upper
Daily 1.79% 1.59% 1.47% 1.58% 1.47% 1.56% 48.64 50.09 47.93 50.83
Weekly 3.78% 4.24% 3.66% 3.75% 3.23% 3.44% 47.79 50.98 46.28 52.65
Monthly 6.06% 9.76% 6.38% 8.09% 6.72% 7.17% 46.15 52.79 43.16 56.46
Quarterly 9.76% 17.21% 11.33% 13.63% 11.63% 12.41% 43.94 55.45 39.12 62.29
Annual 23.26% 24.83% 39.12 62.29 31.00 78.60
Option Time Horizon 8.78% 9.37% 45.21 53.89 41.41 58.84
Calculation Notes: Computed at 2026-03-23T16:43 UTC  |  Reference Contract: Call option expiring 2026-05-15 (52 days)  |  Spot Price (S): $49.36  |  Strike (K): $50.00 (first OTM call ≥ spot)  |  Observed Mid-Price: $1.5300 (Bid $1.4700 / Ask $1.5900)  |  Risk-Free Rate (r): 3.73% (1-Month CMT, US Treasury)  |  Dividend Yield (q): 1.19%  |  Binomial IV (Annual): 23.26% (CRR binomial tree, American, n=20 steps)  |  BS IV: 23.48% (European Black-Scholes)  |  Yahoo IV (Annual): 24.83% → period-scaled as σperiod = σannual·√h  |  Price bands: Upper = S·e+σ√h, Lower = S·e−σ√h
Historical Dividend Payouts
Ex-Dividend Date Amount
2025-12-22 $0.1910
2025-09-22 $0.1780
2025-06-23 $0.1720
2025-03-24 $0.1790
2024-12-23 $0.2060
2024-09-23 $0.1650
2024-06-24 $0.1630
2024-03-18 $0.1530
2023-12-18 $0.1840
2023-09-18 $0.1550
2023-06-20 $0.1500
2023-03-20 $0.1530
2022-12-19 $0.2100
2022-09-19 $0.1730
2022-06-21 $0.1640
2022-03-21 $0.1520
2021-12-20 $0.1840
2021-09-20 $0.1620
2021-06-21 $0.1390
2021-03-22 $0.1510
2020-12-21 $0.1520
2020-09-21 $0.1350
2020-06-22 $0.1520
2020-03-23 $0.1590
2019-12-20 $0.1560
2019-09-20 $0.1440
2019-06-21 $0.1390
2019-03-15 $0.1350
2018-12-21 $0.1450
2018-09-21 $0.1280
2018-06-15 $0.1190
2018-03-16 $0.1050
2017-12-15 $0.1280
2017-09-15 $0.1030
2017-06-16 $0.0930
2017-03-17 $0.0880
2016-12-16 $0.1070
2016-09-16 $0.0926
2016-06-17 $0.0983
2016-03-18 $0.0812
2015-12-18 $0.1219
2015-09-18 $0.0918
2015-06-19 $0.0894
2015-03-20 $0.0739
2014-12-19 $0.1024
2014-09-19 $0.0796
2014-06-20 $0.0731
2014-03-21 $0.0674
2013-12-20 $0.0820
2013-09-20 $0.0658
2013-06-21 $0.0626
2013-03-15 $0.0504
2012-12-21 $0.0845
2012-09-21 $0.0536
2012-06-15 $0.0552
2012-03-16 $0.0406
2011-12-16 $0.0650
2011-09-16 $0.0406
2011-06-17 $0.0431
2011-03-18 $0.0341
2010-12-17 $0.0455
2010-09-17 $0.0268
2010-06-18 $0.0252
2010-03-19 $0.0292
2009-12-18 $0.0422
2009-09-18 $0.0382
2009-06-19 $0.0496
2009-03-20 $0.0699
2008-12-19 $0.1487
2008-09-19 $0.1543
2008-06-20 $0.1625
2008-03-20 $0.1608
2007-12-21 $0.2128
2007-09-21 $0.2071
2007-06-15 $0.1657
2007-03-16 $0.1202
2006-12-15 $0.2283
2006-09-15 $0.1576
2006-06-16 $0.1519
2006-03-17 $0.1438
2005-12-16 $0.1690
2005-09-16 $0.1397
2005-06-17 $0.1422
2005-03-18 $0.1259
2004-12-17 $0.1519
2004-09-17 $0.1284
2004-06-18 $0.1186
2004-03-19 $0.1089
2003-12-19 $0.1332
2003-09-19 $0.1129
2003-06-20 $0.0942
2003-03-21 $0.0788
2002-12-20 $0.1080
2002-09-20 $0.0910
2002-06-21 $0.0910
2002-03-15 $0.0731
2001-12-21 $0.0934
2001-09-21 $0.0804
2001-06-15 $0.0820
2001-03-16 $0.0707
2000-12-15 $0.0837
2000-09-15 $0.0715
2000-06-16 $0.0707
2000-03-17 $0.0691
1999-12-17 $0.0682
1999-09-17 $0.0609
1999-06-18 $0.0577
1999-03-19 $0.0561
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.31. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 14.80 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -5.33%540.79%0.79%
-5.33% to -3.99%650.95%1.74%
-3.99% to -2.65%1852.70%4.44%
-2.65% to -1.30%6439.39%13.82%
-1.30% to 0.04%243135.48%49.31%
0.04% to 1.38%258337.70%87.01%
1.38% to 2.72%6359.27%96.28%
2.72% to 4.06%1321.93%98.20%
4.06% to 5.41%600.88%99.08%
Greater than 5.41%630.92%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.75%1.83% 82.59%68.27%
±2σ -3.54%3.62% 95.50%95.45%
±3σ -5.33%5.41% 98.29%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.28. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 30.10 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -2.97%00.00%0.00%
-2.97% to -1.78%00.00%0.00%
-1.78% to -0.58%00.00%0.00%
-0.58% to 0.61%3815.56%5.56%
0.61% to 1.81%425362.07%67.63%
1.81% to 3.01%142720.83%88.46%
3.01% to 4.20%4216.14%94.60%
4.20% to 5.40%1522.22%96.82%
5.40% to 6.59%721.05%97.87%
Greater than 6.59%1462.13%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.22%3.41% 91.46%68.27%
±2σ -1.38%5.00% 96.26%95.45%
±3σ -2.97%6.59% 97.87%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.44. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 16.16 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -4.37%600.88%0.88%
-4.37% to -3.27%460.67%1.55%
-3.27% to -2.17%1432.09%3.63%
-2.17% to -1.08%6579.59%13.22%
-1.08% to 0.02%272139.71%52.93%
0.02% to 1.12%227533.20%86.14%
1.12% to 2.22%6299.18%95.32%
2.22% to 3.32%1892.76%98.07%
3.32% to 4.42%751.09%99.17%
Greater than 4.42%570.83%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -1.44%1.49% 82.30%68.27%
±2σ -2.91%2.96% 95.59%95.45%
±3σ -4.37%4.42% 98.29%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of 0.47. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 9.00 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -11.17%151.06%1.06%
-11.17% to -8.33%151.06%2.11%
-8.33% to -5.50%483.38%5.49%
-5.50% to -2.66%1309.15%14.64%
-2.66% to 0.17%47833.64%48.28%
0.17% to 3.01%54438.28%86.56%
3.01% to 5.85%1248.73%95.29%
5.85% to 8.68%433.03%98.31%
8.68% to 11.52%130.91%99.23%
Greater than 11.52%110.77%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.61%3.96% 82.13%68.27%
±2σ -7.39%7.74% 94.65%95.45%
±3σ -11.17%11.52% 98.17%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.73. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 20.46 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -7.97%00.00%0.00%
-7.97% to -4.78%00.00%0.00%
-4.78% to -1.60%00.00%0.00%
-1.60% to 1.58%886.19%6.19%
1.58% to 4.76%87261.32%67.51%
4.76% to 7.94%29620.82%88.33%
7.94% to 11.12%835.84%94.16%
11.12% to 14.30%332.32%96.48%
14.30% to 17.49%161.13%97.61%
Greater than 17.49%342.39%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 0.52%9.00% 91.14%68.27%
±2σ -3.72%13.24% 95.85%95.45%
±3σ -7.97%17.49% 97.61%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Right Skewed (Positive Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of 0.69. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 6.45 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -10.91%110.77%0.77%
-10.91% to -8.16%110.77%1.55%
-8.16% to -5.42%332.32%3.87%
-5.42% to -2.68%1309.14%13.01%
-2.68% to 0.07%60442.48%55.49%
0.07% to 2.81%41629.25%84.74%
2.81% to 5.55%1339.35%94.09%
5.55% to 8.30%483.38%97.47%
8.30% to 11.04%161.13%98.59%
Greater than 11.04%201.41%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -3.59%3.72% 80.87%68.27%
±2σ -7.25%7.38% 95.08%95.45%
±3σ -10.91%11.04% 97.82%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Fairly Symmetrical with a Skewness factor of -0.45. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.58 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -17.55%51.53%1.53%
-17.55% to -13.01%10.31%1.83%
-13.01% to -8.46%144.28%6.12%
-8.46% to -3.91%3811.62%17.74%
-3.91% to 0.64%9829.97%47.71%
0.64% to 5.19%11635.47%83.18%
5.19% to 9.73%3911.93%95.11%
9.73% to 14.28%103.06%98.17%
14.28% to 18.83%51.53%99.69%
Greater than 18.83%10.31%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -5.43%6.70% 77.37%68.27%
±2σ -11.49%12.77% 95.11%95.45%
±3σ -17.55%18.83% 98.17%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 4.06. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 22.31 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -18.50%00.00%0.00%
-18.50% to -11.18%00.00%0.00%
-11.18% to -3.87%00.00%0.00%
-3.87% to 3.45%123.66%3.66%
3.45% to 10.77%21364.94%68.60%
10.77% to 18.09%6620.12%88.72%
18.09% to 25.40%216.40%95.12%
25.40% to 32.72%61.83%96.95%
32.72% to 40.04%30.91%97.87%
Greater than 40.04%72.13%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 1.01%20.53% 91.77%68.27%
±2σ -8.74%30.28% 96.34%95.45%
±3σ -18.50%40.04% 97.87%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 1.24. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 5.31 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -19.18%10.30%0.30%
-19.18% to -14.39%20.61%0.91%
-14.39% to -9.61%103.05%3.96%
-9.61% to -4.82%4012.20%16.16%
-4.82% to -0.04%12437.80%53.96%
-0.04% to 4.75%9729.57%83.54%
4.75% to 9.54%3310.06%93.60%
9.54% to 14.32%144.27%97.87%
14.32% to 19.11%20.61%98.48%
Greater than 19.11%51.52%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -6.42%6.35% 79.57%68.27%
±2σ -12.80%12.73% 95.12%95.45%
±3σ -19.18%19.11% 98.17%99.73%
Close-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Left Skewed (Negative Asymmetry) with a Skewness factor of -0.91. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 2.98 proves the distribution possesses Fat Tails (Higher Outlier Risk).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -27.44%21.83%1.83%
-27.44% to -20.12%10.92%2.75%
-20.12% to -12.80%32.75%5.50%
-12.80% to -5.47%1614.68%20.18%
-5.47% to 1.85%2422.02%42.20%
1.85% to 9.17%4642.20%84.40%
9.17% to 16.49%1110.09%94.50%
16.49% to 23.81%54.59%99.08%
23.81% to 31.14%10.92%100.00%
Greater than 31.14%00.00%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -7.92%11.61% 73.39%68.27%
±2σ -17.68%21.37% 93.58%95.45%
±3σ -27.44%31.14% 98.17%99.73%
High-to-Low Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 3.15. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 11.09 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -32.06%00.00%0.00%
-32.06% to -19.15%00.00%0.00%
-19.15% to -6.24%00.00%0.00%
-6.24% to 6.66%21.82%1.82%
6.66% to 19.57%7265.45%67.27%
19.57% to 32.48%2320.91%88.18%
32.48% to 45.38%76.36%94.55%
45.38% to 58.29%10.91%95.45%
58.29% to 71.20%10.91%96.36%
Greater than 71.20%43.64%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ 2.36%36.78% 91.82%68.27%
±2σ -14.85%53.99% 95.45%95.45%
±3σ -32.06%71.20% 96.36%99.73%
Open-to-Close Returns
Gram-Charlier Analysis: Data reveals Highly Right Skewed (Extreme Positive Tail Risk) with a Skewness factor of 2.61. Further, an Excess Kurtosis of 12.27 proves the distribution possesses Extreme Fat Tails (Frequent Outliers, Leptokurtic).
Bin Distribution Over Raw Range
Bin / RangeFrequencyProbCum. Prob
Less than -34.26%00.00%0.00%
-34.26% to -25.76%00.00%0.00%
-25.76% to -17.26%21.82%1.82%
-17.26% to -8.77%1311.82%13.64%
-8.77% to -0.27%5247.27%60.91%
-0.27% to 8.23%2421.82%82.73%
8.23% to 16.72%1513.64%96.36%
16.72% to 25.22%10.91%97.27%
25.22% to 33.72%10.91%98.18%
Greater than 33.72%21.82%100.00%
Standard Deviation Interval Analysis
SDLower BndUpper Bnd Actual %Normal %
±1σ -11.60%11.06% 82.73%68.27%
±2σ -22.93%22.39% 96.36%95.45%
±3σ -34.26%33.72% 98.18%99.73%